Kevin Pullein: free football betting tips & analysis from the Soccer Boffin

Best bet

Under 5.5 Asian total cards in Osasuna v Betis
1pt 1.975 bet365

It could pay to bet on a low number of cards in Sunday's La Liga game between Osasuna and Betis.

Back under 5.5 Asian total cards at decimal odds of 1.975 – equivalent to fractional odds of 39-40 – with bet365. Each yellow will count as one card and each red as two cards.

Anything can go wrong with any bet. With this bet the things that are most likely to go wrong could be provoked by referee Alejandro Hernandez Hernandez or Betis.

Hernandez Hernandez has not presided over high card counts often this season. But during most of the previous eight seasons he did show either a few or a lot more cards than most of his colleagues. He could return to that behaviour. This season so far could be just a lull in a storm.

Betis games have not produced large numbers of cards often this season. But they did during most of the other five seasons since they returned to La Liga.

This season Betis are coached by Manuel Pellegrini. He is a likeable person, and whenever he can he gets his teams to play attractive football. But that does not mean they have always featured in lots of low card counts. They have not.

Card counts in Betis’s games early this season could also be an aberration. They could return to what had been a long-established type.

If either or both of those things happen there will almost certainly be more than 5.5 Asian total cards in the El Sadar. And they could – but they might not.

According to the result-related markets, each team is about as likely to win as the other, and those markets are probably right. Osasuna, most likely, would be worse than Betis at a neutral venue, but in La Liga this season home advantage has still counted for something.

The smaller the anticipated difference in playing strength between two teams the more likely a high card count becomes, which is another cause for concern.

The make-up between Osasuna and Betis could exceed 5.5 Asian total cards, and there are reasons for fearing it will, but the chance that it will not may be better than bet365’s odds envisage.

Thought for the week

Last Sunday I listened to the television commentary during the big Premier League game and heard Martin Tyler say Tottenham had won at Chelsea in both seasons when they became champions of England – 1950-51 and 1960-61.

It was meant just as a bit of colour by someone I have always remembered as a high-quality commentator. But it got me wondering.

How many times had Tottenham won at Chelsea in the top division and not gone on to become champions of England? The answer is 18 times. In fact, in one of those other seasons – 1934-35 – they were relegated.

How often has the first thing occurred and the second thing not followed? This is a good question to ask of any stat if you are interested in what it might be able to tell you about what could happen next. And even then, it will give you at most a bit more knowledge, never a complete understanding.

Last Sunday, as events panned out, Tottenham did not beat Chelsea. They drew 0-0. But of course that does not mean that this season they cannot go on to become champions of England for a third time.

For the record, Chelsea drew 0-0 at home to Tottenham when they won the title in 2004-05, but 14 other times they drew without ending the season on top of the table.

Chelsea have become champions five other times, always after winning at home to Tottenham. But even if they had lost last Sunday it would still have been possible this season for them to win the Premier League.

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