Kevin Pullein: free football betting analysis from the Soccer Boffin

Up a quarter, down a quarter. This has been the trend in the last games of a season across the five highest-profile leagues in Europe.

Up a quarter for goals – more or less – down a quarter for bookings. Those five highest-profile leagues are the Premier League in England, La Liga in Spain, Serie A in Italy, Bundesliga in Germany and Ligue 1 in France.

For all five the 2020-21 season ends this weekend.

I looked at data from the previous 15 seasons, 2005-06 to 2019-20 – though I ignored last season in Ligue 1 because its fixtures were not completed: when teams played for the last time they did not know it was going to be the last time.

Comparing the final round of fixtures with all earlier rounds, I found that goals per game rose by 22 per cent (almost a quarter) and bookings points per game fell by 25 per cent (exactly a quarter). Bookings points are ten for each yellow and 25 for each red.

There were of course variations between competitions – but not too wide.

To give the full figures, goals per game rose in the Premier League and La Liga from 2.7 to 3.2, in Serie A from 2.6 to 3.4, in the Bundesliga from 2.9 to 3.7 and in Ligue 1 from 2.4 to 3.0.

Bookings points per game dropped in La Liga from 61 to 45, in Serie A from 54 to 40, in the Bundesliga and Ligue 1 from 41 to 31 and in the Premier League from 36 to 30.

Bookings points in particular are influenced by what teams have to play for, so there were contrasts between different types of game. In the Premier League bookings points per game were 26 when neither team had anything to play for, 35 when one team had something to play for and 44 when both teams had something to play for.

Thought for the week

There was something that always puzzled me about ground advantage before coronavirus cleared fans out of stadiums. Why did it not seem to vary with the size of a crowd? There could be competitions with vastly different attendances but similar ground advantage. How was this possible?

Ground advantage can only – repeat only – come from the behaviour of players and officials. They are the only ones directly involved in games. Spectators might become involved indirectly. Does the behaviour of supporters influence the behaviour of players and officials? If so, why does the roar of a large crowd have no more effect than the roar of a small crowd?

I got an inkling of the answer in December. Up to 2,000 fans were allowed into stadiums that can squeeze in ten, 20 or 30 times as many. I was not the only one who thought they would hardly be noticed. Some of them made a heck of a noise.

And I got more of the answer in recent days. There were 21,000 fans at the FA Cup final last Saturday and up to 10,000 at Premier League games on Tuesday and Wednesday. Some of them raised a huge sound. Perhaps a small crowd can make as much of an atmosphere as a large crowd.

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