Goals may become more abundant as Premier League and EFL seasons come to a close

Scores tend to rise at the end of a season, and we are approaching the end of a season.

There are two rounds of fixtures left in League One, plus a few rearranged games.

There is a lot still at stake for some, nothing for others. We do not know any of the teams who will go up. Crewe will go down. Doncaster are hanging on by a fingernail. To stay up they would have to win their last two games, Gillingham would have to lose their last two games, and there would have to be an aggregate swing of at least 17 in goal differences.

Twelve other teams could be playing next season in a different division. Ten teams can neither go up nor go down.

There are three rounds of fixtures left in the Championship and League Two, plus a few more rearranged games that were postponed from earlier in the season.

Fulham have been promoted and Derby have been relegated from the Championship. Forest Green need a point to remove the last, lingering doubt about their promotion from League Two. Scunthorpe have been relegated from League Two and will turn out next season in the National League.

Scores tend to creep up at the end of a season. Here are figures covering up to 26 EFL seasons, 1995-96 to 2020-21. Only in the Championship were all 46 rounds completed in season 2019-20.

In rounds one to 43 the average number of goals per game was 2.56. As it was in round 44. In round 45 goals per game increased to 2.66 and in round 46 to 2.71.

These steps up might seem small – they certainly were not huge – but they did have an impact on betting markets for over/under 2.5 goals.

Forty-seven per cent of games yielded more than 2.5 goals across rounds one to 43. The same in round 44. In round 45 the proportion of games producing over 2.5 goals was 49 per cent and in round 46 it was 51 per cent.

There was inconclusive evidence as to whether scores jumped more in some sorts of games than in others. What we can say for sure is that in many games there was a change from the usual level of competitiveness, in one direction or the other.

In the Premier League there are five rounds of fixtures still to play, and, as elsewhere, some rearrangements. At the highest level, too, scores ticked up over the last two rounds in previous seasons – not significantly before.

These figures cover the last 26 Premier League seasons. Goals per game were 2.58 in round 34, then 2.62 in round 35, followed by 2.63 in round 36, up to 2.74 in round 37 and 3.01 in round 38. There are only 38 rounds of fixtures in a Premier League season.

The proportion of games featuring more than 2.5 goals rose from 48 per cent in rounds 35 and 36 to 49 per cent in round 37 then 56 per cent in round 38.

The changes over the last two weekends were bigger in the Premier League than in the EFL, but there are fewer games at the highest level than below, so we should expect there to be both more variability in what happened in the past and also in what will happen in the future.

In every race, though, there may be some developments in those final few strides toward the finishing line.

Do players earn their end-of-term lap of honour?

Over the last two weeks of a season first one set of teams then the other play their final home game.

There is a notion among fans and bettors that players particularly want to win this game, independent of other motivations. It is followed traditionally by a lap of honour. That always feels more satisfying to everyone if the game has been won.

Wanting and getting, though, can be different things. Are teams more likely to win in their final home game than in earlier home games? There is evidence of this happening – but the effect seems to be small.

These figures come from up to 26 completed Premier League and EFL seasons, 1995-96 to 2020-21. (EFL League One and League Two were not completed in season 2019-20).

Up to and including the penultimate home game, results were as follows: home wins 44 per cent, draws 27 per cent, away wins 29 per cent. For the final home game, results were as follows: home wins 46 per cent, draws 25 per cent, away wins 29 per cent.

In the final own-ground game, home wins occurred two per cent more often and draws two per cent less often. There was no change in the frequency of away wins.

To start is one thing but to keep going is another

Between December 11 and March 19, Arsenal played 13 Premier League games. They won ten, drew one and lost two – against Manchester City and Liverpool. They had gained 31 points, a ratio of 2.4 points per game.

Only City and Liverpool in that period achieved a better points per game ratio – 2.5 by both.

Arsenal lost their next three games. On Wednesday they beat Chelsea.

If Arsenal, City or Liverpool accumulated points over a whole season at the same rate as they had between the middle of December and the middle of March they would end up with more than 90.

City and Liverpool have shown over several seasons that they are capable of maintaining that sort of extraordinarily high standard. Arsenal have not. We should not have expected Arsenal to lose three games in a row – that was unusual – but nor should we have expected them to keep up what equated to title-chasers’ form.

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