General observations on making football forecasts

Last season in this space I said Manchester City would finish with 100 points. They did. Okay I got lucky. I did not think City were certain to accumulate 100 points. I thought 100 was their most likely total but that several other totals were almost as likely and many more were possible.

Last year I also made predictions about Burnley and Swansea. At the halfway stage Burnley were seventh in the Premier League with 32 points while Swansea were 20th and bottom with 13 points. Burnley had beaten Swansea by 19 points.

Over the second half of the season, I said, Burnley were unlikely to beat Swansea by more than six points. In the event they beat them by just two points. Over the second half of the season Burnley gained 22 points and Swansea 20.