Form has typically been a bad guide to what will happen next in the Championship

Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest, who play Friday night, are perfect examples of the changeability of the Championship. I will start with Bournemouth and end with Nottingham Forest.

Bournemouth did not lose any of their first 15 games – they won 11 and drew four. Over the next 12 games they won three times, drew three times and lost six times. A team who had not lost in their opening 15 games lost as often as not during the following 12 games. Since then they have won three in a row.

What varied for Bournemouth? Defence. They conceded 0.5 goals per game in the first period, 1.3 in the second and 0.7 in the third.

Why did goals against spike? There might be people who claim to know. After an event it is nearly always possible to come up with a plausible explanation. I am wary of rationalisations made after the event. There is a difference between sounding reasonable and being right. If anyone predicted Bournemouth’s topsy-turvy form, I congratulate them – I did not hear them.

Bournemouth are now second in the table, behind Fulham.

Fulham also set off quickly, stumbled, then recovered. Of their first 18 games Fulham won 13, drew two and lost three. Afterwards they drew four in a row then lost once. A team who had won all but five of their opening 18 games did not win any of the following five. Since then they have won six times and drawn once.

What went wrong then right again for Fulham? Attack. They scored 2.7 goals per game in the first period, 0.6 in the second and 3.9 in the third.

Why did they score in a flood, then a trickle, then an even deeper flood? As for goals conceded by Bournemouth so I believe it was for goals scored by Fulham.

Early in the season there were not many postponed games in the Championship. After five scheduled fixtures every team had played five times, after ten scheduled fixtures every team had played ten times, after 15 scheduled fixtures every team had played 15 times and after 20 scheduled fixtures every team had played 20 times.

Two teams will be promoted automatically. Below them four teams will go into the playoffs. Only one of the teams who were in the playoff places after five games were still there after ten games. Only one of the teams who were in the playoff places after ten games were still there after 15 games. And only one of the teams who were in the playoff places after 15 games were still there after 20 games.

In fact, results fluctuated wildly throughout the table. I examined every possible pair of teams. How often did a team who had gained more points than another in one five-game period also gain most points in the next five-game period? Just under half the time – 49 per cent. I had not expected the number to be high but I was surprised it was so low. Was it unusual?

To find out I checked previous seasons. I divided each season into sets of five games – games one to five, six to ten, 11 to 15, and so on until I got to 41-45. I ignored game 46. I did this for the 26 seasons from 1995-96 to 2020-21, more than quarter of a century. How often did a team who had gained more points than another in one set of five games also gain most points in the next set of five games? Just over half the time – 51 per cent. This season is not unusual.

I was shocked – and I already knew that form can be changeable. Pick pairs of teams at random. Only about half of the teams who gained most points over the last five games will also gain most points over the next five games.

Nottingham Forest are currently seventh, one place and two points below the playoffs. They did not win any of their first seven games. They did not lose any of their next six games. They lost six and drew one of the first seven, then won five and drew one of the next six. Between those sequences there was a change of manager. Some people might think that explains the transformation completely. I do not. I think one good manager replaced another.

Overall results have improved considerably under Steve Cooper – but there has still been a lot of variability in them. After those six good results Forest had seven middling results – five draws, one win and one loss. Then they won three in a row. Then they lost two. Then they won another three in a row. After those they lost once, won once and drew once. Tonight Forest play Bournemouth. Anything could happen.

Even the best might not know when others will do well

Aberdeen sacked manager Stephen Glass on Sunday – 11 months after appointing him. During the recruitment process owner Dave Cormack consulted the club’s most successful former manager, Sir Alex Ferguson.

Cormack said: “Sir Alex has made himself available to me to use as a sounding board as we go through this process and you can bet your bottom dollar that I will take him up on that.”

I do not know whether Ferguson gave Cormack general advice or discussed specific candidates.

When Ferguson retired from Manchester United they consulted him about his successor. He endorsed David Moyes. They sacked Moyes after ten months.

Given more time both Moyes and Glass could have become appointments that owners and fans viewed more favourably.

Aberdeen sacked Glass when they were knocked out of the Scottish FA Cup by Premiership Motherwell. In the Premiership they had 29 points from 25 games, which was only seven or eight below reasonable expectations. I am basing reasonable expectations on the club’s history and budget. Moyes had presided over good results at Everton. He is presiding over good results now at West Ham.

Ferguson was the most successful manager ever in British football. He won the Premier League 13 times, the FA Cup five times, the League Cup four times, the Champions League twice and the European Cup-Winners’ Cup once with Manchester United, after winning the Scottish Premier Division three times, the Scottish FA Cup four times, the Scottish League Cup once and the European Cup-Winners’ Cup once with Aberdeen. He also won the Scottish First Division with St Mirren.

And yet even his input does not guarantee that a managerial appointment will be followed by good results. And if his help does not assure a desirable outcome, whose could? When it comes to managerial appointments, nobody really knows which will work out and which will not.

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