Man City v Brighton: odds, form, tactics, team news, stats & verdict

TV details

BBC1, 5.30pm Saturday

Match odds

1-7 Man City bet365, Betfred, Sky Bet
25-1 Brighton Coral, Hills, Ladbrokes
8-1 Draw Betfred, Paddy Power

Form

The quadruple is looking a realistic target for Manchester City. The Carabao Cup winners are top of the Premier League, in the easier half of the Champions League draw and strong odds-on favourites to lift the FA Cup.

City have won 20 of their last 22 matches in all competitions, although Pep Guardiola's side have eased up in each of their last two Premier League matches, racing into 2-0 leads against Fulham and Cardiff but failing to add to their tally in the second half.

Brighton, five points clear of the drop zone, are not totally safe from relegation following a poor run of two league wins in 2019 and one of those was a scrappy 1-0 success over Huddersfield at home.

Albion have forced only five shots on target in their last three matches and were well beaten by Chelsea on Wednesday, losing 3-0 at Stamford Bridge.

Tactics

Guardiola's style is clearly defined and City are top of just about every attacking metric in this season's Premier League, including goals (83), shots (average 18 per game), attempts on target (seven per game) and possession (64.2 per cent per game).

The only real variations are in the wide areas where City sometimes attack with genuine wingers in Raheem Sterling and Leroy Sane, or Bernardo Silva can play tucked in, which allows the Premier League champions even more midfield domination.

Brighton are nearly always in a 4-5-1 shape against elite opponents with Chris Hughton often prepared to defend deep in numbers and hope to land a blow via a set-piece opportunity.

For the league game away to City it finished a respectable 2-0 but Albion had just 20 per cent possession and lost the shot count 21-2 (8-1 on target).

Injury news

Brighton playmaker Pascal Gross has been ruled out with a hamstring complaint and Hughton needs to assess Solly March, who went off early against Chelsea with a calf problem.

Jurgen Locadia is also a doubt but Brighton are hopeful he will be available, while City are sweating on the fitness of top goalscorer Sergio Aguero.

City's Oleksandr Zinchenko is also doubtful, leaving Guardiola with a problem in the left-back position. Fabian Delph is out and Benjamin Mendy has not been in the matchday squad since returning from injury. Right-back Danilo could fill in should Zinchenko miss out.

Verdict

This looks as one-sided as the betting suggests, but backing City to win to nil could at least add a bit of juice to the favourites' price. They have kept six clean sheets in their last eight matches and Brighton lack attacking intent. City to win 2-0.

Key stats

• Man City have won 20 of their last 22 matches.
• City have won by two goals in all three Premier League fixtures against Brighton since Albion were promoted.
• Only Burnley average fewer shots than Brighton's 10.1 in this season's Premier League.
• Brighton have failed to score a first-half goal in ten of their last 12 matches against top-flight opponents.

Today's top sports betting stories

Follow us on Twitter @racingpostsport

Like us on Facebook RacingPostSport