Chelsea v Manchester City predictions: Blues could frustrate Wembley favourites

Free football tips, best bets and analysis for Chelsea v Manchester City in Saturday's FA Cup semi-final.

Where to watch

BBC One, 5.30pm Saturday

Best bet

Under 2.5 goals
3pts 4-5 Betfair, Betfred

Team news

Chelsea
Mateo Kovacic and Andreas Christensen are out. Kai Havertz should keep his place up front although Timo Werner is pushing for a recall. Kepa has started in goal for all four FA Cup ties this season.

Manchester City
Sergio Aguero is not fit enough to return to the squad and Pep Guardiola must decide whether first-choice keeper Ederson should replace cup cat Zack Steffen.

Match preview

Manchester City raced into a 3-0 lead inside 34 minutes of January's Premier League clash with Frank Lampard's Chelsea but they can expect a tougher test against Thomas Tuchel's Blues in the FA Cup semi-final.

It promises to be an intriguing contest at Wembley between two clubs who reached the last four of the Champions League this week.

City had an early scare against Borussia Dortmund on Wednesday but roared back to win 4-2 on aggregate after Jude Bellingham had given BVB an early lead on the night.

Chelsea's progress was less dramatic as they saw off unfancied Porto 2-1 on aggregate, despite losing Tuesday's second leg 1-0, and they certainly look more steely opponents under Tuchel than they did in the Lampard era.

Both teams have been on the end of shock results in the Premier League recently as City were beaten 2-1 by ten-man Leeds last weekend despite having 29 attempts on goal to their visitors' two.

And two weeks ago Chelsea crumbled in spectacular fashion following Thiago Silva's first-half red card against relegation-threatened West Brom, who came back from 1-0 down to beat the Blues 5-2 at Stamford Bridge.

That is the one blot on an impressive start to Tuchel's career in London and Chelsea swiftly put that defeat behind them with a 4-1 win at Crystal Palace.

Ignoring the five goals they shipped when down to ten men against the Baggies, the Blues have conceded only four times in 17 games under their new boss and backing under 2.5 goals looks the best bet in the cup semi.

Given the impact made by Tuchel, it is perhaps surprising to see his side at almost 4-1 to win in 90 minutes.

However, bookmakers are understandably respectful of a City team who have won 28 of their last 30 matches in all competitions, reaching the EFL Cup final, the semis of the FA Cup and Champions League, and establishing an 11-point lead in the Premier League.

There is little to be gleaned from both teams' cup runs as Chelsea have seen off Morecambe, Luton, Barnsley and Sheffield United while City knocked out Birmingham, Cheltenham and Swansea before a 2-0 quarter-final win at Everton.

The Citizens lost 2-0 to Arsenal at this stage of last season's FA Cup, beating Brighton 1-0 in the 2018-19 semis. The same season they had beaten Chelsea on penalties in the EFL Cup final after a goalless 120 minutes and it could pay to expect another gripping, low-scoring encounter.

Chelsea haven't given much away in big games under Tuchel, keeping clean sheets in both legs of the Champions League last-16 tie against Atletico Madrid and claiming 1-0 Premier League wins at Tottenham and Liverpool.

February's clash with Manchester United ended goalless – one of three 0-0s in 12 league games since Lampard's departure – and Chelsea's defence should provide a serious obstacle in City's path to the quadruple.

Key stat

Fifteen of Chelsea's 18 games under Thomas Tuchel have featured two goals or fewer.

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