2025-26 FA Cup outright betting tips, odds and predictions: Arsenal's FA Cup love affair looks set to continue

The Premier League big guns enter the fray this weekend as the FA Cup reaches the third round, and Racing Post football expert Dan Childs has three tips for the world's oldest cup competition.

Manchester City are the 9-2 favourites, but Crystal Palace sprang a surprise to beat the Citizens in last year's final, and there are others who look capable of challenging Pep Guardiola's team in 2026.

2025-26 FA Cup betting odds

Sign up with Paddy Power to bet on the 2025-26 FA Cup. Here are the latest odds:

Odds correct at 12pm on Thursday, January 8

Want more top football betting advice? Make sure you take a look at Racing Post Sport's tips for more of the latest picks from our experts.

2025-26 FA Cup betting tips & predictions

Best bets

Arsenal to win the FA Cup
3pts 13-2 Paddy Power

Aston Villa to win the FA Cup
1pt each-way 20-1 Paddy Power

Brentford to win the FA Cup
0.5pt each-way 40-1 general

Gunners can compete on all fronts

Arsenal are the team to catch in the Premier League title race but they are also the most successful club in the FA Cup's history and look a solid bet to land the famous trophy for a 15th time by the end of this season.

Outright markets for knockout competitions can offer decent value because they can be slow to adjust.

It is hard to understand how Arsenal, the most consistent team in the opening five months of the Premier League season, can be only third favourites for the FA Cup, behind Manchester City and Liverpool.

The Gunners are heavily invested in the Premier League title race and have ongoing Champions League and EFL Cup commitments.

However, the same distractions apply to Manchester City, who are considerably longer odds than Arsenal in the Champions League betting (13-2 as opposed to 4-1).

It could be argued that City's FA Cup third round at home to Exeter is easier than Arsenal's fixture at Portsmouth, but Arsenal are 1-9 shots to come through their trip to Fratton Park, and their Champions League distraction – at least in the short term – is minimised by the fact that they have probably already secured enough points for automatic qualification to the competition's round of 16.

Mikel Arteta's side have a busy January and early February schedule due to extra demands of the two-legged EFL Cup semi-final against Chelsea, but they have had to deal with multiple injuries to key players since the start of the campaign and seem to be in a healthier state for the start of the year with Kai Havertz and Gabriel Jesus adding to the manager's options.

While Arsenal's squad appears to be in good shape, City are reeling from a double setback with defensive duo Josko Gvardiol (calf) and Ruben Dias (thigh) picking up significant injuries.

Pep Guardiola's side have flexed their financial muscle by agreeing a January deal for Antoine Semenyo, but the Gunners look better prepared for the battles to come and City are unattractive favourites for FA Cup glory.

Liverpool's status as second favourites is even more bizarre. A lack of depth has been an issue for the Reds, who deployed a second-string side against Crystal Palace in the EFL Cup fourth round and were beaten 3-0.

A youthful Liverpool succumbed 1-0 away to Plymouth in last season's FA Cup fourth round and there is the potential for an even bigger upset next Monday if Arne Slot goes with too many youngsters for the third-round clash at home to League One Barnsley.

Aston Villa's Youri Tielemans scored a famous FA Cup-winning goal for Leicester in the 2021 finalCredit: Getty Images

Midlands giants could make their mark

Two of the competition's most famous clubs have been drawn against each other this weekend with eight-time winners Tottenham taking on seven-time victors Aston Villa.

Both clubs would see themselves as major contenders even if their outright odds (18-1 Spurs and 20-1 Villa) may appear to suggest otherwise.

It is hard to argue with the market assessment of Spurs, who continue to be ravaged by injuries and have generally struggled since making a bright start to the campaign.

Villa are probably overpriced even if allowances are made for their difficult third-round draw.

Unai Emery's side triumphed at Tottenham in last October's league encounter and have been far superior to the Londoners in recent months.

The Midlands outfit will have to manage their resources carefully as they strive to stay competitive in the Premier League and Europa League, but they were FA Cup semi-finalists last season and are not without hope of going at least one step further.

Chelsea and Manchester United are another couple of heavyweight clubs with a tradition of FA Cup excellence, but both are set for periods of transition after managerial departures and they fail to appeal at fourth and sixth in the betting.

EFL Cup holders Newcastle are starting their year with greater stability under their long-term boss, Eddie Howe, but they face a tricky third-round tie at home to Bournemouth and could be distracted further down the line by ongoing Champions League commitments.

Buoyant Bees look the best of the rest

The Premier League has become hugely competitive in recent years with smaller well-run clubs such as Brighton, Bournemouth, Crystal Palace, Fulham and Brentford regularly taking points from more famous rivals.

Crystal Palace made the breakthrough in last season's FA Cup by defeating Aston Villa and Manchester City on their way to lifting the trophy for the first time in their history.

Palace are sure to have inspired clubs of a similar size and budget, including Brentford, who look of each-way interest at 40-1.

Keith Andrews has done a wonderful job with the Bees, who were touted as relegation candidates before the start of the season.

Brentford have a favourable FA Cup opener away to Championship basement boys Sheffield Wednesday, and a success in South Yorkshire may be just the start of a lengthy run in the competition.

FAQs for the 2025-26 FA Cup

When is the 2025‑26 FA Cup final?

The 2025‑26 FA Cup final takes place on Saturday May 16, 2026 at Wembley Stadium.

Who are the FA Cup holders?

The current FA Cup holders are Crystal Palace, who beat Manchester City 1–0 in last year's final.

Where can I watch the FA Cup this season?

BBC One and ITV1 (and their streaming platforms BBC iPlayer and ITVX) are showing the FA Cup live in the UK this season, with selected matches also on TNT Sports.

Who are the favourites for the FA Cup?

Manchester City are the 9-2 favourites with Liverpool 11-2 shots. Arsenal are 13-2 and Chelsea can be backed at 17-2. 

Newcastle are 11-1, Manchester United are 16-1 shots and holders Crystal Palace are 25-1 to retain the FA Cup. (Paddy Power).

2025-26 FA Cup round dates

Ties to be played the weekend of:

First round November 1
Second round December 6
Third round January 10
Fourth round February 14
Fifth round March 7
Quarter‑finals April 4
Semi‑finals April 25
Final Saturday, May 16

Read more top football tips & analysis:

FA Cup accumulator tips for Saturday January 10: Back our acca at 5-1 with bet365 

Both teams to score tips and predictions: Our 11-2 acca for Saturday's action 

The Early Bird: Weekend football predictions & free betting accumulator tips from James Milton 

Why Ruben Amorim failed at Manchester United – and what his successor has to fix 

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