Powerhouse American can hunt down the leaders

Story so far

Jordan Smith leads the European Open by two shots going into the final round, the Englishman reaching 12 under par through 54 holes at the North Course, Hamburg.

Smith, a European Tour maiden enjoying an impressive rookie campaign, was a 40-1 chance on tournament eve. The 24-year-old Bath boy is no bigger than 2-1 with 18 holes to play.

Alexander Levy and Jens Fahrbring are tied for second place. Levy is the defending champion and a four-time European Tour champion, while Fahrbring is a 33-year-old maiden who has won twice on the Challenge Tour.

Charl Schwartzel and Patrick Reed shared market leadership ante-post at 14-1, but both need Sunday fireworks to claim the trophy. Schwartzel is sharing 21st place, seven shots off the pace, while Reed is two shots better off in a logjam for tenth spot.

Leaderboard

-12 Jordan Smith
-10 Jens Fahrbring, Alexander Levy
-9 Johan Edfors, Adrian Otaegui, Ashley Chesters, Richard Sterne, Ryan McCarthy, Julian Suri
-7 Trevor Fisher, Richie Ramsay, Siddikur Rahman, Stuart Manley, Patrick Reed, Luca Cianchetti
-6 Stephen Gallacher, Chase Koepka, Richard McEvoy, Thomas Detry, Sean Crocker

Best prices

2 J Smith, 4 A Levy, 12 R Sterne, J Fahrbring, 14 J Suri, A Otaegui, 18 P Reed, 30 J Edfors, 35 R Ramsay, R McCarthy, 55 T Fisher, 66 C Schwartzel, 70 T Detry, 80 bar

Final-round advice

Jordan Smith took to the European Tour like a duck to water, jostling with Rory McIlroy for the SA Open title in January and contending straight away at the top level.

A slight form dip followed as summer arrived, but Smith has rediscovered his A-game in Germany and given himself a great chance of a breakthrough victory.

Punters who are aboard at the ante-post 40-1 have obviously got a fantastic bet, but there is no urge to weigh in at just 2-1 with 18 holes to play on a soft course with five par-fives. There is a serious amount of golf to be completed before Smith can be handed the silverware.

Sunshine is forecast for the playing hours in Hamburg on Sunday, along with a light breeze, so fantastic scoring conditions should await the competitors. Several of the chasing pack can be expected to card a super-low final round, meaning Smith must stay on the front foot if he is to convert this opportunity.

Alexander Levy took advantage of his ball landing next to a sprinkler head on the 18th hole in round three, allowing him to drop in a much better lie and make an up-and-down birdie. It was a tremendous last-gasp fillip and the Frenchman could not wipe the smile off his face as he left the green.

Levy at 4-1 is arguably better value than Smith at 2-1, but the defending champion has shoved some short putts to the right this week, and is far from certain to provide the required gallop to the line.

The first few lines of the leaderboard are filled with maidens and the best of them may be Julian Suri, who is by far the most attractive option going into the final round.

Suri is the most powerful player on the board and capable of making mincemeat of the North Course. The five par-fives can be destroyed by this giant American.

Suri's excellent season stalled largely due to the fact his clubs went missing in transit for four weeks in a row. He finally got them back on the eve of his Open debut, and missing the cut by a shot at Royal Birkdale was an impressive effort in the circumstances.

This week, Suri has got back in the groove, opening with a 66 to share the lead and staying in contention throughout. He won on the Challenge Tour by two shots at the end of May and will fancy his chances of overcoming a three-shot Sunday deficit in Hamburg. His CT victory came across the border in the Czech Republic.

Suri looks a late bloomer with plenty of promise who could use the European Open as a springboard for much European Tour success. The 26-year-old played junior golf with US Open champion Brooks Koepka and is looking to follow in his footsteps by becoming a Major champion.

Suri lies second on the Challenge Tour Road to Oman money list and should make the switch to the higher grade soon enough. Victory in Hamburg could get the job done straight away.

Final-round twoball punters are pointed towards Suri, who can outgun Richard Sterne and Ryan McCarthy (8.10am), while stylish Belgian youngster Thomas Detry looks a strong option against Richard McEvoy and Sean Crocker.

The players are out early in threeballs, eager to avoid a potential afternoon storm. Smith, Levy and Jens Fahrbring tee off at 8.20am UK and Ireland time.

Outright recommendation
J Suri
2pts 14-1 BoyleSports

Threeballs recommendations
J Suri
2pts 6-4 Betfair, Power

T Detry
2pts 5-4 bet365