Europa League: Arsenal v Bate Borisov second-leg betting preview, tip & TV

TV: BT Sport 3, 5.55pm Thursday

What should have been a bye week for Arsenal in the Europa League has turned into something far less straightforward although the beauty of two-legged football competitions is that the Gunners can make light of last week’s embarrassment in Borisov.

Beaten 1-0 by a Bate team who are in the midst of their winter holidays was a thoroughly depressing outcome for one of the tournament favourites.

But by pretty much every other measure than the scoreline Arsenal were so much better than their Belarusian hosts that it’s hard to imagine Unai Emery’s men not getting it right at the second time of asking.

When Bate last visited the Emirates Stadium in a Europa League group-stage affair 14 months ago they were trounced 6-0.

Notwithstanding the confidence boost of last Thursday’s success at the Borisov Arena, they have good grounds to be wary.

Bookmakers are in no doubt about the balance of the tie, going 1-7 about the Arsenal win and 1-3 that they qualify. It’s 4-6 they win to nil while the Arsenal-Arsenal half-time-full-time double result is an 8-15 shot. If you want to get with Arsenal, prepare for some skinny prices.

The Gunners are horribly inconsistent – their eight-match formguide reads WLWLWLWL – and Emery has issues in certain areas which have been well chronicled.

Yet despite evidence of complacency in the away leg they were still vastly superior to a Bate side who are still a month away from the start of their domestic campaign.

Arsenal bossed the corner count 12-3, the shot count 14-6 and had 71 per cent of possession in Belarus.

They know they are going to have to work hard to overcome a side who have a lead and a clean sheet to cling to and are therefore going to be exceptionally defensively-minded. And they are going to have to break through without the aid of Alexandre Lacazette, who is suspended after his late red card in the first leg.

But everything points to a home win. Arsenal have lost only three home matches since March and they were against the two Manchester sides and Tottenham. Even without Lacazette they should boast sufficient firepower and this is one of those go-for-broke occasions when Emery has to free the reins.

A tally of two clean sheets in 14 shows the defence remains a worry and there has been money for both teams to score. Arsenal and both teams to score looks worth an interest at 9-4.

Bate are clearly decent and have been in England since Saturday preparing for the biggest game of their season.

But they were leaky in qualifying for the knockout stage – they shipped nine goals in six group games – and were beaten twice by Chelsea including a 3-1 loss away.

They are experienced – Alexei Baga may well field seven players aged 29 or over in his starting line-up including 37-year-old ex-Arsenal favourite Aleksandr Hleb.

And as undisputed Belarus champions they will always back themselves. Punters, however, should definitely be backing Arsenal.

Recommendation
Arsenal & both teams to score
1pt 9-4 Coral, Ladbrokes

Bet on this game at Soccerbase.com

Team news
Arsenal
Alexandre Lacazette is suspended. Ainsley Maitland-Niles is a doubt. Hector Bellerin, Rob Holding and Danny Welbeck are out but Aaron Ramsey has returned to training.

Bate Borisov
Finland striker Jasse Tuominen has returned to training after a two-month layoff. Fellow hitman Vladislav Mukhamedov is out.

Key stat
Bate have conceded 19 goals in their last seven European away matches.

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