Dunne can hang tough as wind whips across Dundonald Links

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Ian Poulter, Callum Shinkwin and Andrew Dodt share the lead going into the final round of the Scottish Open at Dundonald Links, the trio reaching nine under par through 54 holes.

Poulter was an ante-post 80-1 chance, while Shinkwin and Dodt were both 300-1 rags at the start of the week. The unfancied trio are two shots clear of the chasing pack.

Rory McIlroy missed the cut, Henrik Stenson is nine shots off the pace, while Rickie Fowler stumbled to a third-round 74 to drop four behind. Outsiders are dominating the event and Poulter has assumed favouritism with 18 holes to play.

Poulter is 14-5 market leader, Dodt is 11-2 and European Tour maiden Shinkwin is 6-1. Fowler, who made only one birdie in a wet and wild third round, is 11-1 to overcome his deficit and win the Scottish Open for a second time.

Leaderboard

-9 Callum Shinkwin, Ian Poulter, Andrew Dodt
-7 Andy Sullivan
-6 Paul Dunne, Johan Carlsson, Ryan Fox
-5 Alexander Knappe, Rickie Fowler, Matt Kuchar, Bernd Ritthammer, Rafa Cabrera-Bello, Andrew Johnston, Anthony Wall, Richard Bland, Graeme McDowell

Best prices

12-5 I Poulter, 11-2 A Dodt, 6 C Shinkwin, 13-2 A Sullivan, 11 R Fowler, 18 P Dunne, R Fox, 20 M Kuchar, 33 R Cabrera-Bello, G McDowell, 45 J Carlsson, A Johnston, 66 bar

Final-round advice

Ian Poulter has got some of the old swagger back which made him a Ryder Cup legend, but the 41-year-old's game is not in the same order which it was in the past, and there is no urge to support him at short prices for Scottish Open glory.

Fans and pundits alike are keen to worship Poulter and welcome one of the great characters of the sport back to the winner's enclosure, but there was a sense of everyone getting carried away during round three. Sure, Poulter handled the poor conditions better than most, but there was nothing special about the one-under-par 71 and he is far from certain to get the job done on Sunday.

Poulter has not won a tournament since the 2012 HSBC Champions and had been in dire form until recently. Such was his unhappiness with his traditional strength of putting, he switched to a new grip in the aftermath of Brooks Koepka winning the US Open, copying the American's technique.

The new putting stroke has worked well in Scotland and Poulter has obviously done well to claim a share of the third-round lead, but it is far too early to be celebrating “Poults is back!”.

Andrew Dodt has two low-grade European Tour titles under his belt, while Callum Shinkwin loves links golf and was just as impressive as Poulter in round three.

Shinkwin at 6-1 is probably the best value of the front three, while there are several quality players lurking just off the pace who are well capable of entering the thick of things. Andy Sullivan, who closed with an eagle, is only two shots behind, while Paul Dunne and Ryan Fox are two dangerous European Tour maidens who both look likely to become champions this year or next.

Rickie Fowler is still well in the hunt from four shots behind and the Poulter price is the most unappealing of all.

A sunny, windy final round is expected at the Dundonald Links, and Dunne at 18-1 is arguably the best outright value on offer. The Irishman relishes tough conditions and could set a clubhouse mark which those in front of him fail to match. He finished 13th in the Farmers Insurance Open last year in brutal weather on the US Tour and this should be a piece of cake in comparison.

Dunne and Fowler were pre-tournament Racing Post Sport selections and both are still in with a chance. They can join Shinkwin, Sullivan, Fox and Poulter in a thrilling final-round shootout.

Final-round twoball punters are pointed towards Fox in the 3.15pm match. The New Zealander has been hitting his ball superbly in his last three tournaments, finishing sixth in the French Open, fourth in the Irish Open and over the first three days at Dundonald Links.

Fox has settled on the European Tour and seems adept at handling tough conditions. Flying Ryan can be fancied to account for erratic Swede Johan Carlsson in their round-four contest. The final pairing of Poulter and Dodt is scheduled on the tee at 3.35pm.

Twoballs recommendation
R Fox
3pts 4-6 Coral, Ladbrokes, Sky Bet