Euro 2020 qualifiers: Estonia v Northern Ireland betting preview, tip & TV

Sky Sports Football, 5pm Saturday

Three months after beating Estonia at Windsor Park, Northern Ireland can repeat the feat when the countries meet in Tallinn.

Goals from Niall McGinn and Steve Davis earned Michael O’Neill’s side the points that night, three days before they also saw off Belarus to go top of Group C in the hunt for a Euro 2020 place.

O’Neill’s men know they can ill-afford to drop any points against the section’s lesser lights if they are to have any chance of overhauling either Holland or Germany in the final reckoning. And that means that where once a point in a city like Tallinn might have represented a decent result, nothing less than a win will do now.

And victory looks like something that is well within their reach.

Man-for-man they look an appreciably more accomplished squad and are 63 places higher than their hosts in Fifa’s world rankings.

Estonia’s loss in Belfast was their only reverse in their last five games, although last time out they were awful in a 1-0 friendly success in Gibraltar.

They don’t have too many good players and one of them – centre-back Nikita Baronov, who plays in the Bulgarian top-flight for Beroe – is absent.

Head coach Martin Reim is attempting to introduce more youngsters into the national set-up at the expense of veterans like Ragnar Klavan, with nine outfield players in his squad aged 23 years or younger.

Northern Ireland were worthy winners in the reverse fixture in March and with a squad almost at full-strength and players of the calibre of Jonny Evans and Davis, they can dictate terms.

This doesn’t look likely to be a game full of goals which suggests it may pay to look outside of the win market for a way of supporting Northern Ireland, who are odds-on with the majority of bookmakers.

Estonia’s games are usually short of goals – only three of their last 19 have produced more than two goals. Youngster Mattias Kait has scored five goals in 18 appearances and looks decent enough in Fulham’s academy side, but this is a real step up in class.

If Northern Ireland are to succeed it appears likely to be by a narrow of margin.

Recommendation
Northern Ireland to win by one goal
1pt 12-5 general

Key stat
Sixteen of Estonia's last 19 games have featured under 2.5 goals.

Team news
Estonia
Centre-back Nikita Baronov is injured. Midfielder Ilja Antonov has been withdrawn by his Romanian club side. Veteran Ragnar Klavan and winger Siim Luts have been left out.

Northern Ireland
Olly Norwood, Niall McGinn and Will Grigg are injured. Michael O’Neill must decide between Josh Magennis and Liam Boyce for the centre-forward slot.

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