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Euro tips

England expected to prove too strong but write off Denmark at your peril

Racing Post Sport writers give their verdicts for the Wembley semi-final

Kasper Hjulmand's Denmark have won all seven of their World Cup qualifiers
Kasper Hjulmand's Denmark have won all seven of their World Cup qualifiersCredit: BSR Agency

We asked our top team of writers for a number of England v Denmark Euro 2020 predictions and this is how they answered...

Who will be going through to the Euro 2020 final?

Warren Ashurst: With the combination of home advantage and going into the game following a 4-0 win, England look to have everything in their favour. The semi-final experience of 2018 should also help them, with at least six of the players involved against Croatia three years ago likely to start again this time.

Liam Flin: It could be England's toughest game yet at Euro 2020 but I think the Three Lions will prevail. Denmark's spirit is superb and they are a well-organised side but they may lack that cutting edge to break down an England defence yet to concede and I anticipate a marginal victory for Gareth Southgate's men.

Henry Hardwicke: I'm not sure there's much value in the price, but I think England will prove too strong for Denmark. Gareth Southgate should have a fresh squad given how he has rotated his side and the fact they have had to do so little travelling. Those greater options could see the Three Lions through.

James Milton: England, although I'm not rushing to back them at odds-on to win in 90 minutes. There should be no sense of panic in the Three Lions camp if the game goes to extra-time as Gareth Southgate has more game-changing substitutes at his disposal than opposite number Kasper Hjulmand.

Chris Rivers: All the talk of England never having a better chance to reach a major final does a big disservice to a Denmark side who look like a bad match-up for the Three Lions. The Danes won at Wembley last year and the tactically shrewd Kasper Hjulmand can guide his nation to a famous win.

Alex Wrigley: They're nowhere near the 1-3 favourites the bookmakers would have you believe, but I'm still expecting England to make the final. Denmark will be a much tougher test than Ukraine but Southgate and his men made it past Germany with relative ease and it would be a big disappointment if they fell at this hurdle.

What is your correct-score prediction for England v Denmark?

Warren Ashurst: It wouldn’t be England if they didn’t give their fans and backers a rollercoaster ride and I’m expecting a tight and tense affair. The Three Lions have the greater attacking threat of the two teams, but I feel Denmark can end England’s run of clean sheets. I’m going 2-1 to England.

Liam Flin: 1-0 to England. The Three Lions took it up a gear in the 4-0 win against Ukraine but the game with Denmark could be more like their earlier matches at the tournament with England likely to keep possession and patiently await an opening.

Henry Hardwicke: The betting suggests a tight contest, but I think there could be a few goals and go 2-1 England. Denmark have scored ten times in their last three matches and all but one of their five Euro 2020 games have seen at least three strikes. I think they will continue on the front foot.

James Milton: 1-1. Denmark have scored ten times in their last three games and caused serious problems for Belgium's defence in the first half of their Group B clash. They have the potential to end England's run of clean sheets in a tight contest in 90 minutes.

Chris Rivers: This should be a nail-biter. England are playing with plenty of confidence right now but Denmark have proved to be so resolute throughout Euro 2020 that this could go all the way to extra-time and penalties with 1-1 after 90 minutes a tempting 13-2.

Alex Wrigley: England have found some attacking rhythm so I expect them to notch a couple against a Denmark side who have conceded in four of their five games. However, the Danes have the second-highest xG in the tournament and England have been fortunate at times so their clean sheet run could end here. 2-1 to England.

Give us your first-goalscorer fancy?

Warren Ashurst: With two of the three Denmark centre-backs plying their trade in the Premier League, they will have their own thoughts on stopping Harry Kane. Focusing too much on England’s skipper will allow others to shine though. With no guarantee on whether Sancho, Foden or Saka will start, Raheem Sterling is the way to go at around 6-1.

Liam Flin: I'll keep it simple and go with Harry Kane at around 3-1. In the Ukraine contest he managed four shots on his way to notching an important brace and his confidence and link-up play with the rest of England's forwards is improving as the tournament goes on.

Henry Hardwicke: Harry Kane is a worthy favourite, but at 25-1 Harry Maguire looks worth a punt. England are excellent at set-pieces and Maguire struck with a header in the quarter-finals against Ukraine. I expect the Man Utd defender to be a major threat again.

James Milton: Harry Maguire thumped home a header against Ukraine and will be the focus of England's set-pieces once again. He has had four attempts on goal in the previous two knockout games and there is still some juice in odds of 25-1 that he opens the scoring against the Danes.

Chris Rivers: England’s clean sheet run has got to end at some point and Kasper Dolberg could be the man to break the spell. Dolberg has five goals in his last seven appearances for the Danes - one more than Harry Kane and Raheem Sterling have managed in that same period - and looks value at 9-1.

Alex Wrigley: Harry Maguire is a bigger-priced alternative to the obvious protagonists. England scored twice from set-pieces against Ukraine and have looked a threat from them throughout the tournament. They will lean heavily on them tonight and at 25-1 Maguire looks a solid shout.

Should Gareth Southgate make any changes from the Ukraine win?

Warren Ashurst: I would stick with the same side, as England look more threatening going forward with a back four, but Southgate matched up with Germany and may chose to do the same. Jaden Sancho tormented Ukraine and deserves the chance to start again, plus the prospect of bringing on Bukayo Saka and/or Marcus Rashford would scare any tired backline.

Liam Flin: I would be reluctant to tinker with either the back four or England's midfield axis of Declan Rice and Kalvin Phillips. I think any combination of Raheem Sterling, Bukayo Saka or Jadon Sancho would work against a reasonably slow Denmark rearguard and Phil Foden perhaps deserves another chance in a number ten role.

Henry Hardwicke: I'd bring in Bukayo Saka for Jadon Sancho and switch Mason Mount for Jack Grealish. Grealish has the ability to unlock defences and the Villa man could win plenty of free-kicks for a side potent from set-plays. Saka's pace and direct running could expose Denmark's defence.

James Milton: It's something of a surprise that Reece James hasn't featured since the Scotland game and I wouldn't mind seeing him come in at right-back. Denmark's defenders and midfielders look vulnerable against pace so James, along with Jadon Sancho or Bukayo Saka, could pose a real threat down the right flank.

Chris Rivers: The control and leadership Jordan Henderson brings to a game makes him worthy of consideration. Denmark will put England under more pressure than they’ve faced so far at Euro 2020 and Henderson’s cool head in the middle of the park could prove important.

Alex Wrigley: It's a difficult decision after such an assured display but a switch to a three-man defence might be England's best chance of making the final. Southgate matched Germany's system to great effect in the last 16 and Denmark have looked every bit as threatening as the Germans with their 3-4-3 system.

Which Denmark player has impressed you most in this tournament?

Warren Ashurst: I’ve been a fan of Thomas Delaney for a while, having seen quite a bit of him playing for Dortmund, and he has been key in the Danes’ run to the semis. The standout man in my opinion though has been Mikkel Damsgaard. At just 21, his performances will have caught the eye of several of Europe’s big clubs.

Liam Flin: It has been all about the collective with Denmark but the player who has stood out for me is Joakim Maehle, who laid on a brilliant assist against Czech Republic and has two Euro 2020 goals to his name. He is key at both ends of the pitch and is a dangerous counter-attacking talent England will need to keep an eye on.

Henry Hardwicke: The whole has definitely been greater than the sum of the parts when it comes to Denmark, but Simon Kjaer has been a rock at the back. The Danish defence have allowed just eight shots on target in their last three games and the Milan man has played a major part in that solidity.

James Milton: Like England, it's been a real team effort although Mikkel Damsgaard and Kasper Dolberg have exceeded pre-tournament expectations and Atalanta have unearthed another gem in Joakim Maehle. The left-back's assist for Dolberg against Czech Republic was a thing of beauty and he's also scored three goals in his last six competitive internationals.

Chris Rivers: There’s a good reason why Simon Kjaer is in the mix for player of the tournament having been rock-solid at the back for Denmark. Not only have his performances been top-notch but he’s also proved to be an excellent leader and role model in the aftermath of Christian Eriksen’s collapse.

Alex Wrigley: There have been so many impressive performers from Denmark but Joakim Maehle has stood out from the crowd. His cross for Dolberg's goal on Saturday made it three direct goal contributions from the Atalanta wing-back and he's been a huge threat throughout the tournament. Hojbjerg and Damsgaard get honorary mentions.

What is your best bet on any market for the Wembley semi-final showdown?

Warren Ashurst: Six of England’s eight goals at Euro 2020 have come in the second half of games and with legs tiring after a long season and both teams desperate to reach the final, I think the second 45 minutes will be crucial. Over 1.5 second-half goals looks a worthwhile wager at 11-8 with bet365.

Liam Flin: Both England and Denmark led their quarter-final clashes inside the opening five minutes but an explosive start is unlikely at Wembley and under 0.5 first-half goals at 6-4 looks a decent selection. Three of England's five Euro 2020 fixtures have been goalless at the break.

Henry Hardwicke: I fancy goals and at 29-20 over 2.5 looks too big. Only Spain have managed more than Denmark's 37 shots on target at Euro 2020 and England seem to be peaking as an attacking force at just the right time.

James Milton: Under 3.5 cards at 10-11. Dutch referee Danny Makkelie booked five players during England's last-16 win over Germany but things should be less heated against a Denmark side who have picked up only four cautions in five matches at the finals.

Chris Rivers: Denmark have been rattling in the shots at these Euros with exciting full-back Joakim Maehle having the second highest number of attempts for his team. Maehle looks overpriced at 5-2 to hit the target at least once against England with seven of his previous ten attempts finding their mark.

Alex Wrigley: Priced up at 7-4 on Betfair, Joakim Maehle to have a shot on target packs excellent value. Only Patrik Schick (8) has hit the target more times than Maehle (7) and the only time he hasn't tested the keeper is when Denmark played a 4-3-3 system in the opener.


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