Expert Euro 2024 analysis from Andy Brassell: Scotland set to frustrate hosts in opener

European football expert Andy Brassell believes the hosts may not have things their own way this summer, read on to find out why and to grab yourself £40 in free bets with BetMGM when you bet on Euro 2024. You can grab your free bets here.

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How will the hosts get on?

The Euros start with Germany taking on Scotland in Munich and let's be clear, there is a lot of pressure riding on Julian Nagelsmann's side – and they know it.

The idea that somehow Germany will see off Scotland effortlessly makes for an easy narrative but I'm not sure that's the reality.

The atmosphere in Munich will be fantastic but it's a double-edged sword. There will be a 70,000 crowd right on top of you with no space between fans and players,and it will be a great spectacle.

But on the flip side, if the crowd gets anxious the players will feel it very quickly so if Scotland can stop Germany from taking an early lead they have a really good opportunity.

There is an immense amount of pressure on Germany. There's a cliché about tournament football that you want to just get a win in your first game, that's all that matters, but I'm not sure that is all that matters with Germany.

I think they have to go out there, put in a performance to show that they're coherent and exciting – and I think they know that. And that weighs heavily.

Germany are one of the hardest teams to read at this tournament. It’s easy to say just because Germany are in a major finals and hosts, muscle memory says that they compete.

But people in Germany aren't saying that. Football fans in Germany have been turned off by the national team because of recent failures. Even when they flopped in Qatar the mood was almost “whatever” rather than proclaiming them as national disgrace.

There are echoes of 2006 when there was a major disconnect between the team and the public so Nagelsmann and his players have to find a way of lifting the nation. The coach has a responsibility to win games but play a brand of football and convey an image that restores some pride.

That has given him a licence and the fact he has been given a contract extension is an admission from the board that this is a project and that they are not the finished article.

I can't think of a time when Germany have gone into a major finals with maybe ten players who have hardly played any important international football. That's where Germany are.

I don't think Nagelsmann knows his best team yet even going into the first game against Scotland. Indeed, if you ask ten German fans to name their best team you'd probably get ten different line-ups.

I think he'll probably start against the Scots with Kai Havertz ahead of two number tens, in Jamal Musiala and Florian Wirtz, but there are question marks in other positions.

If Scotland can get the German fans frustrated they can avoid the hammering many predict for them.

In fact I can see Scotland coming close to qualifying, by at least finishing third. Germany and Hungary are the two best teams in Group A but I'm no fan of Switzerland. It’s hard to see where their goals will come from.

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Will England start strongly?

I wonder if this summer's European Championship is the first major finals where we see the impact of the Saudi Pro League – and Serbia could be one of the beneficiaries.

Every time there's a European Championship or a World Cup, we look at the best players in the world, players who have played 50 or 60 high-intensity games, most must-wins, in Europe's top leagues and cups, and they are cooked.

Players like Serbia's Sergej Milinkovic-Savic and Aleksandr Mitrovic will turn up from a season in Saudi Arabia and I wouldn't be at all surprised if they have got plenty left in the tank.

It's much lower intensity out there and Milinkovic-Savic, one of the highest profile defectors, has played fewer games than since he first joined Lazio. Mitrovic, meanwhile has helped himself to a glut of goals. There is a good chance they will be fresher than most.

And it's Serbia's attacking options that make them a threat. They aren't consistent – they made heavy weather of qualifying but anyone who saw the recent 3-0 win at Sweden had to be impressed.

Dusan Vlahovic and Mitrovic, with Luka Jovic off the bench, is a potent force and they will create chances. Serbia look as if they will make the most of limited opportunities.

I still think England will get it over the line because they will dominate and this time take their chances. So an England win and both teams scoring for me.

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Who will lift the trophy?

The debate over players being well rested or rusty going into a tournament is always a big talking point, and France will hope that Kylian Mbappe is the former rather than the latter.

Since revealing he was leaving Paris for Real Madrid Mbappe has been left out of the side occasionally, had one or two injury niggles and didn't finish the season well.

He didn't grab the Champions League semi-finals against Dortmund by the scruff of the neck and nor did he shine in the French Cup final.

But I'm still inclined to think that when the tournament gets going Mbappe will deliver and France will win.

They have good players who can chip in such as Marcel Thuram, Ousmane Dembele, who has been superb for PSG this season, Olivier Giroud and of course Antoine Griezmann. They will want Mbappe to fire but let's not forget that at the last World Cup Griezmann was arguably the player of the tournament.

But if Mbappe comes off then France are going to be enormously difficult to beat.

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Andy Brassell

Published on 14 June 2024inEuro 2024