Where the second half of the EFL season could be a lot different from the first

In the Championship in the first half of the season Wigan scored and conceded in 15 games while Blackburn scored and conceded in only six games. No team scored and conceded more often than Wigan, no team scored and conceded less often than Blackburn.

How often will they score and concede in the second half of the season? I predict the number will be lower for Wigan and higher for Blackburn. In fact, I predict the totals will be almost the same – 12 for Wigan and 11 for Blackburn.

I base those predictions on what happened in the first and second halves of the previous 27 EFL seasons, 1995-96 to 2021-22.

Teams who scored and conceded in 15 games in the first half of a season scored and conceded on average in 12 games in the second half of the season. Teams who scored and conceded in six games in the first half of a season scored and conceded on average in 11 games in the second half of the season.

There are 23 opportunities to score and concede in half a season. A middle of the range team scored and conceded in 12 games. No matter in how many or how few games teams scored and conceded in the first half of a season the average in the second half was always close to 12. There was next to no correspondence between score and concede records in one part of a season and another.

As it was for scoring and conceding, so it was for over 2.5 goals.

In the Championship in the first half of this season there were over 2.5 goals in 14 of Middlesbrough’s games but in only seven of Preston’s games. No team featured in games with over 2.5 goals more often than Middlesbrough, no team featured in games with over 2.5 goals less often than Preston.

How often will they be involved in games with over 2.5 goals in the second half of the season? I predict the number will be lower for Middlesbrough and higher for Preston. In fact, I predict the totals will be almost the same – 11 for Middlesbrough and ten for Preston.

I base those predictions too on what happened in the first and second halves of the previous 27 EFL seasons.

Teams whose games produced over 2.5 goals 14 times in the first half of a season did so on average 11 times in the second half of a season. Teams whose games produced over 2.5 goals seven times in the first half of a season did so on average ten times in the second half of a season.

The tally for a middle-of-the-range team was 11. No matter how high or low the number in the first half of a season the average in the second half was always close to 11. You would have been better off assuming that variations between different parts of a season would be entirely random than in imagining that there would be any rhyme or reason to them.

Elsewhere in the EFL in the first half of this season Bristol Rovers, Charlton, Fleetwood, Morecambe and Oxford scored and conceded in a high number of games and Barnsley and Cheltenham scored and conceded in a low number of games in League One. There were over 2.5 goals in a lot of Peterborough and Plymouth games but not in a lot of Lincoln games. In League Two Gillingham hardly ever scored and conceded or featured in games with over 2.5 goals.

What will happen in the second half of the season? For all those teams my prediction would be a number that is nearer to normal.

And why there could be less change in some places than in others

So much for goals scored, conceded or in total. What about points?

There is a relationship between points gained in different parts of a season, but it is much stronger for some teams than for others. Usually, good form changes less than ordinary or bad form.

Again I studied what happened in the first and second halves of the previous 27 EFL seasons, 1995-96 to 2021-22.

Teams who gained 34 points or more in the first half of a season could be said to have done well – and they tended to do well again in the second half - not quite as well but still pretty well. For example, teams who gained 50 points over the first 23 games averaged 43 points over the second 23 games.

Teams who gained between 33 and 15 points in the first half of a season could be said to have done ordinarily or badly – and for them what came before was less useful as a guide to what would happen next.

Teams who gained 33 points in the first half of a season averaged 31 in the second half. Teams who gained 15 points in the first half of a season average 26 in the second half. There had been 18 points between them over the first 23 games. Over the second 23 games, on average, they were separated only by five points.

More often than not, the team that did better in the first period also did better in the second period – but by a much smaller margin.

Teams who gained 14 points or fewer in the first half of a season tended to be tailed off with hope of escaping relegation extinguishing fast. They did improve a bit, but not by much.

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