EFL Cup final predictions: Best bets for Manchester United v Newcastle

Where to watch

Sky Sports Main Event & Football, 4.30pm Sunday

Best bet

Newcastle to lift the trophy
1pt 7-5 BoyleSports

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Team news

Manchester United
Donny van de Beek, Christian Eriksen and Anthony Martial remain sidelined. Marcus Rashford is a doubt.

Newcastle
Goalkeeper Nick Pope serves a suspension while back-up Martin Dubravka (cup-tied) is also unavailable, so Loris Karius is expected to make his club debut. Winger Anthony Gordon is also cup-tied and Emil Krafth is injured but Joe Willock could return to the squad.

Match preview

Newcastle have endured almost 54 years of hurt since their 1969 Fairs Cup success but the long wait for a major trophy can end with a Wembley victory over Manchester United in the EFL Cup final.

Magpies supporters were full of excitement after the club's long-awaited takeover was completed in 2021 and most of them will be thrilled by the progress made since then.

Eddie Howe's side are in the hunt for Champions League qualification but their immediate focus is on trying to satisfy their fans' hunger for a slice of glory.

Manchester United are favourites as they aim to secure the first trophy of the Erik ten Hag era and they are entitled to feel good about themselves after seeing off the tough challenge of Barcelona in their Europa League knockout stage playoff.

United conceded the first goal in both legs against Barca but they came on strongly in the second half of each game to complete a well-deserved 4-3 aggregate triumph.

It is hard to think of a better mental preparation for a major domestic final than a victory over the La Liga leaders but there are likely to be challenges when it comes to coping with the physical demands of two such high-intensity games in four days.

The EFL Cup final will be United's eighth February fixture - compared to Newcastle's four - and there is uncertainty over the fitness of their top scorer Marcus Rashford, who was forced off with an ankle knock towards the end of Thursday's 2-1 victory.

United have dealt with most of the challenges put in front of them but they looked fatigued in the first half against Barcelona and if they make a slow start against Newcastle it may be more difficult to find a way back.

Newcastle's build-up has been dominated by concern over the absence of two goalkeepers - suspended first choice Nick Pope and cup-tied second choice Martin Dubravka - meaning that Loris Karius is in line to make his first appearance for the club.

Karius's career never fully recovered after his disastrous pair of blunders in the 2018 Champions League final which contributed to Liverpool's 3-1 loss to Real Madrid, and nobody really knows how he will react on another massive occasion.

However, it seems fairly certain that he will be well protected by a back-line who have conceded just 15 goals this season, the best defensive record in the Premier League.

And Newcastle's midfield should function a lot better with Bruno Guimaraes available after a three-match ban and ready to pull the strings.

Newcastle's reliance on Guimaraes has been evident in recent weeks, although there was nothing wrong with the spirit shown in last Saturday's 2-0 loss at home to Liverpool when they played more than three-quarters of the game with ten men.

Howe's side dropped out of the top four following that defeat but their season remains full of promise.

A free week has given Newcastle ample opportunity to address any feelings of disappointment and prepare properly for their biggest game of the season and they look decent value to collect the trophy and send their fans into ecstasy.

Key stat

Newcastle have lost only two Premier League matches this season, both to Liverpool

Probable teams

Man Utd (4-2-3-1): De Gea; Dalot, Varane, Martinez, Shaw; Fred, Casemiro; Antony, Fernandes, Sancho; Rashford.
Subs: Heaton, Weghorst, Wan-Bissaka, Maguire, Sabitzer, Pellistri, Lindelof, McTominay, Garnacho.

Newcastle (4-3-3): Karius; Trippier, Schar, Botman, Burn; Longstaff, Guimaraes, Joelinton; Almiron, Wilson, Saint-Maximin.
Subs: Gillespie, Isak, Ritchie, Murphy, Dummett, Lewis, Anderson, Manquillo, Willock.

Inside info

Manchester United

Penalty taker Bruno Fernandes/Marcus Rashford
Assist ace Bruno Fernandes
Set-piece aerial threat Raphael Varane/Wout Weghorst
Card magnet Fred