EFL Cup final: Free special bets for Aston Villa v Manchester City

Free football tips, best bets and analysis for Aston Villa v Manchester City in the EFL Cup final.

Where to watch

Sky Sports Football & Main Event, 4.30pm Sunday

Best bet

M Nakamba to be booked
1pt 5-1 bet365
Back this tip with bet365 here

Analysis

When it comes to domestic cup finals you can usually bank on Pep Guardiola coming out on top.

This EFL Cup showdown against Aston Villa at Wembley will be Guardiola's ninth final and he has won seven of his previous eight, with the exception being Cristiano Ronaldo's extra-time goal for Real Madrid in the 2011 Copa del Rey final against Barcelona.

Guardiola's Barca, Bayern Munich and Manchester City teams have not even conceded in regulation time in their last seven domestic finals and his last competitive trip to Wembley ended with Watford being humiliated 6-0 in the FA Cup final.

A 6-0 repeat is only 25-1 and City will go off as one of the strongest favourites in English cup football history. Because of the one-sided nature it is difficult to find much value in most of the markets and without knowing who will play in key positions for City, betting on the first goalscorer and man of the match is more hazardous than usual.

If Gabriel Jesus gets the nod in attack he may be of interest to scoop the man-of-the-match honour, however, it would seem likely that Sergio Aguero will start as the main striker as he didn't start in Wednesday's fine 2-1 victory away to Real Madrid.

Madrid midfielders Luka Modric and Fede Valverde were both booked against City, which could guide punters in the direction of a Wembley winner as Villa's engine-room is likely to have to work even harder than usual to nullify the pretty passing patterns of the men from Manchester.

Marvelous Nakamba will probably be given the unenviable task of protecting Villa's defence which should leave the Zimbabwe international at risk of being cautioned, adding to his five yellow cards in his last 16 matches.

Nakamba is second in average tackles per match for Villa this season, behind market favourite Frederic Guilbert, and Jack Grealish is also worth a look given he was booked in both league matches against City.

Grealish loves to have the ball at his feet but City usually frustrate opponents by keeping possession for large spells.

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