Derby can end Fulham's Premier League hopes

Sky Bet Championship playoff semi-final second leg
Sky Sports Football & Main Event, 7.45pm Monday

Fulham slipped up as favourites in last season’s Sky Bet Championship playoffs, suffering a shock exit to Reading in the semi-finals, and their backers could have their fingers burnt a second time as Derby are capable of avoiding defeat at Craven Cottage.

A defensive masterclass from Gary Rowett's Rams gave them a 1-0 lead to take to the capital and they look value to produce another gutsy performance and book their place at Wembley.

The Cottagers bossed possession in the opening leg at Pride Park but were limited to just two shots on target and lacked ideas in the final third against a deep Derby backline.

Switching to a three-man defence has been the making of the Rams and their tactical tweak has paid dividends, including the clean sheet against Fulham, who failed to score for the first time in 20 matches.

Skipper Curtis Davies was given the tough task of marshalling the powerful Aleksandar Mitrovic but he did his job well and if the Rams can defend with the same authority Fulham will have their work cut out.

Derby were a constant threat on the counter too, with the pace of winger Tom Lawrence and the movement of leading marksman Matej Vydra causing problems, and Rowett will be looking to hit the hosts with fast and direct attacks again.

The physical presence of Cameron Jerome, the goalscorer at Pride Park, provides a different threat and, if Fulham commit too many bodies forward in pursuit of an equaliser he could punish them.

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The Cottagers have been a formidable force at home all season, winning 12 of their last 14 league games, but the visitors have peaked for the playoffs and a 3-1 win at home to Cardiff and a 1-1 draw at Aston Villa in April show they have what it take to stall the Championship's elite.

Rowett's men have been inconsistent on their travels this term but their only away defeat against the division's top eight came at champions Wolves and they tend to raise their game against better opposition.

Derby have lost just one of their last seven meetings with Fulham and they can extend that record.

Recommendation
Derby or draw double chance
1pt 11-8 bet365

Already advised by Dan Childs
Derby to qualify
1pt 19-10 May 11

Sky Bet Championship standings

Bet on this match at Soccerbase.com

Team news
Fulham
The Cottagers have reported no fresh injury problems.

Derby
Marcus Olsson is a doubt with a knee injury. Ikechi Anya could replace Andreas Weimann in the left wing-back role.

Key stat
Derby have failed to score in just one of their last ten matches.

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