City are the better team but it's a final and there will be nerves

When we look back in time on the 2021 Champions League final I think words like fascinating and tactical will be used to describe the events in Porto between Chelsea and Manchester City.

It's not likely to be a classic in the truest sense, but that tension of knowing one moment of magic or a marginal error will decide the biggest club football match of them all still brings with it excitement. We won't need to see a 3-2 to be enthralled by the match.

As a former Chelsea player my heart says Thomas Tuchel's team, my head says City, but my betting slip will say under 1.5 goals because everything points towards a close encounter.

There's not a huge amount to be gained by over-analysing the three domestic matches this season. Chelsea have changed coach since the first game and I am sure Frank Lampard's replacement Tuchel will take some comfort in knowing he has twice beaten Pep Guardiola since, first in the FA Cup and then at the Etihad.

However, City made a lot of changes for that semi-final and Sergio Aguero missed a penalty when they were beating Chelsea 1-0 in the league game before my old club turned the game around late on.

You can't argue that City are the better team but it's a final and there will be nerves no matter how much the players are used to playing in big matches.

Tuchel has got Chelsea playing in a pragmatic way at the moment - not the same as Antonio Conte, but he wants Chelsea to keep the ball in midfield. Guardiola has clearly slowed City down as the season has gone on and on many occasions the Premier League champions have shown patience is a virtue.

It's been incredible how much City's side has changed since the start of the campaign. Imagine being told in September that Sergio Aguero, Raheem Sterling and Aymeric Laporte wouldn't be starting a Champions League final, but that's the way it goes.

Phil Foden and Riyad Mahrez have had stunning second parts of the season and City look as if they are peaking perfectly. But those front players will have to work hard for their opportunities against such a well drilled Chelsea side.

Central to that has been the return of Cesar Azpilicueta. His comeback has been one of the stories of the season for me and from almost nowhere he is one game away from lifting the Champions League final.

Azpilicueta is true captain material. He is a winner and a leader and I am delighted he is back in the Spain squad for the Euros too.

Last year's pain can be Brentford's gain this time at Wembley

I was at Wembley to see Fulham overcome Brentford in last season's playoff final when they didn't get going at all, but that pain can help the Bees get over the line against Swansea this time around.

It was the same story for Aston Villa, who lost to Fulham in 2018 and then beat Derby in 2019 and after knocking on the door a few times this looks to be a great opportunity for them.

I have watched a lot of League One this season due to my work with Charlton, and Blackpool were as good as any team I saw at the Valley. They beat Charlton 3-0 and the score flattered the hosts long before my old club were reduced to nine men.

Blackpool to beat Lincoln would be my strongest fancy of the three playoff finals. They are so strong defensively with an excellent goalkeeper in Chris Maxwell and the two midfield sitters - Kevin Stewart and Kenny Dougall are proper operators at League One level.

Combine that with a number of excellent attacking threats and I see Blackpool coming out on top.

League Two is tight between Morecambe and Newport and I would just edge towards Derek Adams' narrow outsiders as the value pick. Morecambe have a style of play - it's not for everyone - but on a really big occasion having a clear identity which everyone trusts is absolutely key.

It's coming home...

The Euros should virtually be a home tournament for England with potentially only one game not at Wembley and for that reason alone I rate the Three Lions the most likely winners this summer.

We have seen in the Premier League that 2,000 fans can sound loud and even if Wembley isn't full I can see the crowd carrying England to victory.

The transfer saga around Harry Kane won't bother him - the man is a robot and I mean that in the nicest possible way - and Gareth Southgate's squad is stacked full of attacking talent.

Watching Manchester United in the Europa League final on Wednesday you could see Ole Gunnar Solskjaer looked at his bench and thought: "I can't improve the team with my subs."

That won't be the same for Southgate, who could be bringing on Jack Grealish, Jadon Sancho, Marcus Rashford, Raheem Sterling or Phil Foden depending on which players are selected in the front three alongside Kane.

Scott Minto presents the Racing Post's weekly YouTube football show Different League in association with Betfred

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