Tottenham v Milan predictions: Goals could be at a premium in a nervy encounter

Where to watch Tottenham v Milan

BT Sport 1, 8pm Wednesday

Best bet

Under 2.5 goals
2pts 4-5 bet365, Betfair

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Tottenham v Milan team news

Tottenham
Eric Dier is suspended but Pierre Emile-Hojberg is available after a one-match ban. Hugo Lloris, Rodrigo Bentancur, Yves Bissouma and Ryan Sessegnon are still out.

Milan
First-leg match winner Brahim Diaz faces a late test on a knee injury, but Rafael Leao and Rade Krunic can play after serving domestic bans.

Tottenham v Milan predictions

There won't be many people queuing up to take the 33-1 about Tottenham winning the Champions League, but the second leg of their last-16 clash with Milan comes at a defining moment in their season.

A week after they limped out of the FA Cup against Sheffield United, Europe's biggest prize is the only one left to them as they look to end a 15-year trophy-less streak and the sight of Liverpool charging behind them in the race for fourth spot in the Premier League will also be greeted with concern, particularly by those worried about whether Harry Kane or manager Antonio Conte will still be at the club next season.

Conte is set to return to the Spurs bench following gallbladder surgery on Wednesday and there seems every chance he will witness a cagey game.

While his team have been poor on the road - the Bramall Lane debacle punctuated defeats at Leicester and Wolves - some will be encouraged by three straight victories without conceding against Manchester City, Chelsea and West Ham on their own patch.

However, that has to be tempered by the fact that their opponents in those London derbies could have hardly performed worse and it would not be unreasonable to suggest some cracks are being papered over.

Kane continues to show his class but Heung-Min Son is having a poor season, Richarlison cannot score for toffee and Dejan Kulusevski is just becoming a bit too predictable.

Just once in their last 19 Premier and Champions League matches have Tottenham posted an expected-goals (xG) figure of 2.0 or greater and it is tough to see them creating enough chances in 90 minutes to overturn a 1-0 deficit from the first leg.

Milan lost 2-1 at Fiorentina on Saturday, a result that ended a run of four straight victories without conceding, so Stefano Pioli's team know how to keep a clean sheet, which would be enough to ensure a quarter-final berth.

That run came after a spell of seven games without a win, in which they lost 3-0 to Inter, 4-0 at Lazio and 5-2 at home to Sassuolo, but they have steadied the ship.

The Rossoneri have won just two of their last eight away games - at Monza and Salernitana - but Brahim Diaz's first-leg goal means they don't have to win in north London and that could affect how much they push forward.

Five of Milan's last six games have featured fewer than three goals as have seven of Tottenham's last nine, and this looks set to follow that pattern.

Key stat

Both teams have scored in just one of Tottenham's last 14 matches

Probable teams

Tottenham (3-4-3): Forster; Lenglet, Romero, Davies; Porro, Hojbjerg, Skipp, Perisic; Kulusevski, Kane, Son
Subs: Royal, Richarlison, Tanganga, Danjuma, Sanchez, Sarr, Moura

Milan (3-4-3): Maignan; Kalulu, Kjaer, Tomori; Saelemaekers, Krunic, Tonali; Hernandez; De Ketelaere, Giroud, Leao
Subs: Diaz, Thiaw, Messias, Pobega, Rebic, Calabria, Origi