Champions League predictions & outright winner odds: Bayern Munich look too big

Free football tips, best bets and analysis for the outright market in the 2021-22 Champions League.

Best bets

Bayern Munich
2pts 8-1 Hills

Atletico Madrid
1pt 25-1Betfred, BoyleSports

Champions League outright preview

Two of the last three Champions League finals have been all-English affairs but the Premier League challenge in 2021-22 could be upstaged by Bavarian powerhouses Bayern Munich, who look decent value to lift the trophy for the seventh time in their history.

Four of the the top six in the betting are English clubs but the favourites tag goes to Paris Saint-Germain, who have attracted understandable attention after assembling the most exciting attacking triumvirate in world football.

Lionel Messi's switch from debt-ridden Barcelona to Paris has seen him reunited with former partner-in-crime Neymar and French superstar Kylian Mbappe. However, the deal may have over-influenced the market.

PSG were as big as 12-1 earlier in the summer when it seemed that Messi would be remaining at Camp Nou and Mbappe was heading for the exit.

However, the club's desperation to be crowned champions of Europe has driven the Parisians' decision to make a huge financial commitment and it is down to Mauricio Pochettino and his players to cope with the added expectation and pressure.

Pochettino led an unfancied Tottenham to the Champions League final in 2018-19 yet he is now in the position where anything less than lifting the trophy will be seen as a failure.

His team were largely outplayed by Manchester City in last season's semi-final - losing 4-1 on aggregate - and will be expected to put up a much better showing when reconvening with Pep Guardiola's side in Group A.

It would be wrong to solely focus on Messi's arrival because PSG have strengthened considerably in other areas by recruiting Gianluigi Donnarumma, Achraf Hakimi and Georginio Wijnaldum.

However, there can be teething problems with bringing in lots of new players, no matter how talented they are, and there are grounds for swerving PSG at such skinny odds.

While PSG could pay a price for changing too much, too soon – City's challenge is hampered by their failure to snap up a centre-forward.

Their pursuit of Harry Kane was understandable given the need to find a replacement for club legend Sergio Aguero.

Against weaker opposition City are often unfazed by the lack of a genuine number nine, but they can struggle in big games when opponents tend to be more successful in nullifying their threats and catching them on the counter.

Thomas Tuchel's Chelsea seemed to work them out last season, defeating them in three successive meetings, and others are likely to follow the Blues' template.

Jack Grealish's arrival adds yet more creativity in an area of the pitch where City were already strong but they look like a team who can only succeed with 'Plan A' and their lack of flexibility could dash their dreams of becoming kings of Europe.

Altetico Madrid coach Diego Simeone knows what it takes to contend in EuropeCredit: Angel Martinez

Teams who land the biggest trophies tend to have the ability to win in different ways but they also need luck with injuries.

When Bayern dominated the 2019-20 competition they had a largely settled side with key players staying fit for the majority of the tournament.

Last season was a different story with their talismanic striker Robert Lewandowski missing the quarter-final tie with PSG, and they paid the price by drawing 3-3 on aggregate and crashing out on away goals. Bayern had largely dominated the two legs – winning the shot count 45 to 16 – but the absence of Lewandowski was crucial as they wasted a host of opportunities.

The Bavarians are hoping Lewandowski can stay fit over the next nine months and they are boosted in another key area of the pitch with outstanding left-back Alphonso Davies returning to prominence after an injury-hit season.

They have made a change in the dugout with 34-year-old head coach Julian Nagelsmann replacing Hansi Flick, who has taken over the German national team.

Nagelsmann led RB Leipzig to the 2019-20 Champions League semi-finals on a budget dwarfed by his resources at Bayern and he could be the right man to lead the Bundesliga champions back to Europe's summit.

Holders Chelsea are a similar price to Bayern and cannot be discounted after adding Romelu Lukaku to an already talented squad.

The Blues have been handed a decent draw and should top Group H at the expense of Juventus, who are getting used to life without Cristiano Ronaldo.

However, they are likely to be major players in the Premier League and that may have an impact later in the season when Tuchel may have to decide which competition to prioritise.

Liverpool are a team who have tasted both Champions League and Premier League glory in the last three seasons but they risk falling behind some of their big-spending rivals.

The Merseysiders have had a quiet summer – limiting themselves to the purchase of Ibrahima Konate – and their challenge looks heavily dependent on maintaining a clean bill of health.

Manchester United have greater depth than Liverpool and are spoilt for choice in attack after the stunning move to re-sign Cristiano Ronaldo.

However, United continue to produce too many disjointed performances and a lack of consistency could be punished by the top teams.

One team who regularly gets the most from their resources are La Liga champions Atletico Madrid.

The strength of La Liga has declined with powerhouse duo Barcelona and Real Madrid reining back after several years of overspending.

Nonetheless, Atletico are extremely tough to beat and they have some extra quality at the sharp end after the arrivals of talented attacking midfielder Rodrigo de Paul and the loan signing of Antoine Griezmann, who is back at the Wanda Metropolitano after three underwhelming years at Barca.

Diego Simeone's side are housed in a tricky group alongside Liverpool, Milan and Porto, but they should finish in the top two and cannot be discounted against any opponent in the knockout stages.

They are a club who attracts minimal attention outside of the Spanish capital and are worth an each-way interest at a big price.

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