Mark Langdon's Champions League tournament winner predictions: Outsiders ready to stun Europe's elite

Best bet

Napoli to win Champions League
1pt 10-1 general

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Champions League tournament preview

The gulf between the best and the rest continues to grow in Europe's premier club competition and one look at the Champions League outright betting would suggest it's going to be business as usual this season.

Manchester City are strong market-leaders, followed by usual suspects Bayern Munich and PSG, with last season's finalists Real Madrid and Liverpool among those prominent despite a brutal last-16 draw for many of Europe's heavyweights. Bayern and PSG face-off as do Real Madrid and Liverpool, although that is not the only reason to consider looking further down the list.

The simple fact is most of Europe's elite are, relatively speaking, not playing very well. City have lost their customary place at the Premier League summit and their points per game average of 2.18 suggests a return for the season of just 83 points, which is a long way short of the Pep Guardiola glory days.

A tricky game against counter-attacking kings Leipzig awaits City, who look less smooth than in previous campaigns. Football being football it would not be a major surprise if City finally lifted the Champions League in a season when their play has been less sublime than usual. However, defeats at Southampton, Manchester United and Tottenham in 2023 hint at a decline in standards and the odds are short.  

Leipzig, who were without soon-to-be Chelsea forward Christophe Nkunku, outshot Bayern 10-7 and 3-2 on target in a recent 1-1 draw and the idea this is a walkover tie for the tournament favourites feels some way from the truth.

Bayern, meanwhile, have failed to win three of their six games since the winter break and the Bundesliga's dominant team are only one point clear at the top, while PSG have already lost to Lens and Rennes post-World Cup and drawn at home to Reims as well as being knocked out of the French Cup by Marseille.

At their best, with Kylian Mbappe, Lionel Messi and Neymar firing on all cylinders, PSG are a huge threat but too many off days, or rather short spells of nonsense, seem to continually ruin their chances at the highest level.

Reigning champions Real Madrid have lost to Villarreal, Barcelona and Real Mallorca in 2023 and despite winning the World Club Cup at the weekend, they are well off the pace being set by Barcelona in La Liga.

Let's not forget that Barcelona, Atletico Madrid and Juventus have already bitten the dust and Liverpool will have to stage a remarkable recovery of Istanbul proportions after totally losing their form to be left languishing domestically in mid-table obscurity.

They are joined in Premier League no man's land by cash-rich Chelsea, who have bought so many new players that not all of them could be registered for the Champions League. Chelsea's two previous Champions League triumphs came in chaotic campaigns so never say never as far as the Blues are concerned, and a last-16 date with Borussia Dortmund avoids the horrors awaiting some of their rivals.

That being said it's still tough. Dortmund have won more Bundesliga matches than Bayern this term and in Jude Bellingham possess a special teenager. What makes him even more special is that he is just about the only top-rated youngster in Europe that Chelsea didn't try to buy in January...

Opportunity knocks for someone but who?

Milan recently conceded four goals in successive Serie A matches for the first time in their history and have totally lost the plot, offering injury-hit Tottenham a potential path to the last eight, and Inter might be sniffing a run with a nice draw to come against Porto.

Whether Antonio Conte's current team or his previous club have the consistency to go all the way remains to be seen, while Benfica got the plum draw against Scott Parker's Club Brugge - yes that Scott Parker - whose team are fourth in Belgium and trail league leaders Genk by 20 points.

Benfica are romping to title success in Portugal, drew home and away with PSG and took six points off Juventus in qualifying. They must recover, however, from the blow of losing star midfielder Enzo Fernandez to, well it almost goes without saying, Chelsea.

Perhaps the winner is more obvious. Napoli have played the best football in Europe this season to move within touching distance of a first Scudetto since the Diego Maradona days and a tie with Eintracht Frankfurt could have been much worse.

Having missed ante-post odds of 125-1 it can be gut-wrenching to go in at 10-1 but how many other teams are in form and have a nice draw?

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