Atletico Madrid v Manchester City predictions: Stubborn hosts no match for City

Free football tips, best bets and analysis for Atletico Madrid v Manchester City in the second leg of their Champions League quarter-final tie on Wednesday.

Where to watch

BT Sport 2, 8pm Wednesday

Best bet

Man City & under 3.5 goals
1pt 7-5 Betfair

Team news

Atletico Madrid
Jose Gimenez and Hector Herrera, absent from the first leg, are hoping to be involved.

Manchester City
Ruben Dias (hamstring) is a major doubt. Gabriel Jesus is banned but Kyle Walker returns from his suspension.

Match preview

Diego Simeone had his heart broken on Love Island on Saturday night and is now bracing himself for a messy Champions League divorce at the hands of Manchester City.

Simeone cut a frustrated figure at the weekend after watching mighty Atletico get jilted in Mallorca, crashing 1-0 to a side who had lost seven in a row going into the game.

The Argentine blamed it squarely on fatigue - although the problems definitely ran deeper than mere tiredness - and cancelled Monday's training in a bid to get his players sharpened up and in the mood for their Champions League quarter-final shootout with City back in Madrid.

But it's going to take more than a few hours' rest to transform the prospects of Atletico, who are in a difficult position after losing the first leg 1-0 in Manchester and, on that evidence alone, look well short of City's sky-high standards. And City weren't that great.

Although Atletico's home record in Europe this season isn’t great they remain, a stubborn bunch, but City are buzzing. If you combine those elements, backing City and under 3.5 goals looks a perfectly respectable way into this second-leg showdown.

The fallen Spanish champions have managed to win only three of nine Champions League ties this season, losing at home to Liverpool and Milan in the group phase and drawing at the Wanda Metropolitano against Porto and Manchester United.

They snuck past United courtesy of a 1-0 win at Old Trafford to set up this showdown with City, but this is not a great Atletico side.

They will be better, admittedly, with inspirational midfielder Hector Herrera and star centre-back Jose Gimenez in the team – both were absent last Tuesday – but their returns, while stabilising them, wouldn't supply the star quality and guile needed in a match where they have to score probably two or more.

Despite needing goals, Simeone will be reluctant to do anything too different from the first leg where his 5-5-0 formation - that was Pep Guardiola's verdict on the Atletico set-up - certainly stifled City.

There will be nothing gung-ho from Atletico who need to stay in the tie, hence the sense that there won't be an avalanche of goals.

But star players of recent seasons, such as Yannick Carrasco, Antoine Griezmann and Marcos Llorente, are struggling this term and Atletico are accordingly blunter.

There was nothing blunt about City at home to Liverpool on Sunday and at times they were sublime. There will be more pragmatism in Madrid in a situation where they are calling the shots but they can unlock the hosts and look capable of beating just about anyone.

Key stat

Atletico have failed to win any of their last six Champions League home games.

Inside info

Atletico Madrid

Penalty taker Luis Suarez
Free-kick wizard Koke/Joao Felix
Card magnet Stefan Savic
Set-pieces aerial threat Felipe/Stefan Savic

Manchester City

Penalty taker Riyad Mahrez/Raheem Sterling
Free-kick wizard Kevin De Bruyne/Riyad Mahrez
Card magnet Aymeric Laporte
Set-pieces aerial threat John Stones

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