Arsenal v Leeds predictions: Gunners forward can seize his chance in EFL Cup

Free football tips, best bets and analysis for Arsenal v Leeds in the EFL Cup last 16 on Tuesday.

Where to watch

Sky Sports Football & Main Event, 7.45pm Tuesday

Best bet

Nicolas Pepe to be first goalscorer
1pt each-way 6-1 bet365

Team news

Arsenal
Granit Xhaka (knee) and Kieran Tierney (ankle) are out and Mikel Arteta is likely to make several changes to the 11 who started Friday's win over Aston Villa.

Leeds
Winger Raphinha (ankle) joins Robin Koch, Luke Ayling, Junior Firpo and Patrick Bamford on the list of absentees for the visitors.

Match preview

Arsenal's 6-0 EFL Cup win at West Brom in August provided manager Mikel Arteta with a boost during a brutal start to the season and his Leeds counterpart Marcelo Bielsa could do with a similar result at the Emirates Stadium in the last 16.

However, while Arteta was able to unleash forwards of the calibre of Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, Bukayo Saka, Nicolas Pepe and Alexandre Lacazette at The Hawthorns, Bielsa's attacking options are limited.

Leeds beat League One strugglers Crewe 3-0 in the second round of the EFL Cup but they have scored only five times in eight matches in all competitions since then.

They needed penalties to get past Championship hosts Fulham after a goalless draw in 90 minutes in the previous round and another spot-kick, converted in injury-time by Rodrigo, salvaged a 1-1 draw at home to Wolves on Saturday.

Arsenal were far more convincing in a 3-1 victory over Aston Villa on Friday night, when they racked up nine shots on target and could easily have won by a wider margin.

The Gunners' display against Villa was an excellent response to their lacklustre 2-2 home draw with Crystal Palace earlier in the week and things certainly look brighter than they did after losing their first three Premier League games to Brentford, Chelsea and Manchester City by an aggregate score of 9-0.

Arsenal stopped the rot in the league with 1-0 wins over Norwich and Burnley, beat AFC Wimbledon 3-0 in the third round of the EFL Cup, and claimed a goalless draw at Brighton just before the October international break.

Arteta has undoubtedly improved Arsenal as a defensive unit and only champions City and Chelsea conceded fewer goals than the north Londoners' 39 in the league last season.

The Gunners boss is expected to make significant changes to the team who started against Villa so punters should not expect a repeat of that fluent attacking performance.

Given Leeds's lack of squad depth and goalscoring problems, backing Arsenal to win and under 3.5 goals is worth considering. None of the Yorkshire club's last nine league and cup games have produced more than three goals.

A more tempting bet, though, is for Arsenal's Ivorian winger Pepe to open the scoring. The club-record signing has found his opportunities limited by the excellence of youngsters Smith Rowe and Saka but he scored eight goals in his last 11 appearances in 2020-21 and notched in the EFL Cup romp at West Brom.

Pepe, a solid understudy to first-choice penalty-taker Aubameyang, had nine shots in his last two home starts against Palace and Norwich and should fancy his chances against a depleted Leeds side.

Key stat

Leeds have scored only five goals in their last eight matches in all competitions.

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