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Kevin Pullein predictions: free football betting tips from the Soccer Boffin

Relegation-threatened teams tend to improve on the final day

Leeds manager Jesse Marsch is set for a tense end to the season
Jesse March's Leeds team need a win to have a chance of staying upCredit: Boris Streubel

There are, unfortunately, no bets that I feel represent value for money on the last rounds of top division fixtures in England, France, Spain and Italy, or the cup finals in Germany and Scotland. The same goes for the League One playoff final in England.

There are, though, some general observations that I think are worth making about the conclusion of the Premier League.

For the ninth time in 30 seasons the title will be decided on the last day. Manchester City lead Liverpool by one point before home games against, respectively, Aston Villa and Wolves.

At the other end of the table either Leeds or Burnley will be relegated. Burnley are above Leeds on goal difference before games, respectively, at home to Newcastle and away to Brentford.

What happened in the past on the final day of a Premier League season when a team threatened with relegation faced opponents with nothing to play for? Generally they did better than their results up to that point would have led us to anticipate.

I scanned for such fixtures across the last 24 completed seasons, 1997-98 to 2020-21. I focused on teams who needed to win to be sure or to give themselves the best chance of avoiding relegation. I found 26 of them.

On the last day of the season those relegation-threatened teams won as often as they lost. Earlier in the season they had lost twice as often as they won. Over the first 37 games of the season they had averaged 1.0 points per game. On the last day they averaged 1.4 points per game.

In that final game they performed like teams just above mid-table. As you would expect, they fared better at home than away when there were fans in attendance.

Burnley and Leeds this season have 0.9 points per game. Both sacked a manager during the season. Sunday night the owners of one will feel they did the right thing, and the owners of the other might not feel they did the wrong thing – they might feel they did everything they could but it just did not work out.

Altogether ten Premier League managers have lost their jobs during this season. Eight were sacked by clubs who would have felt they were in danger of relegation. Four of the eight – half – were sacked by clubs who will be relegated: Daniel Farke by Norwich, Xisco Munoz and Claudio Ranieri by Watford and either Sean Dyche at Burnley or Marcelo Bielsa at Leeds. This is hardly compelling evidence for the efficacy of the knee-jerk dismissal of managers.

Goals can flow more freely at the close of a season

The last round of Premier League fixtures has tended to produce an above average number of goals.

These figures come from the last 24 completed seasons, 1997-98 to 2020-21. Over the first 37 rounds of fixtures the average number of goals per game was 2.7. For the last round of fixtures it was 3.0.

This season on the last day there are eight games in which one team have something to play for – the title, a place in the Champions League or Europa League, or safety from relegation – and two games in which neither team have anything to play for.

Bookings makeups in the past tended to vary with the number of teams in a game who still had something at stake. These figures also cover the last 24 seasons and are taken from markets in which each yellow counted as ten points and each red as 25 points. The average makeup was 43 points when both teams had something to play for, 35 points – close to the average for the rest of the season – when one team had something to play for, and 26 points when neither team had anything to play for.


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Kevin PulleinRacing Post Sport

Published on 20 May 2022inFootball tips

Last updated 15:37, 20 May 2022

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