down cross right results icon premium content video video hollow icon audio lifeNews icon-comment tick starFilled betSlip hot icon-liveCommentary refresh spinner arrow-down
coral logo ladbrokes logo betway logo williamHill logo bet365 logo paddypower logo betfair logo tote logo 888sport logo
TODAY'S OFFERS
TODAY'S BOOKMAKER OFFERS
Exclusive to new customers:
  • View offer
    £20 risk free first bet
    Claim this offer
    New customers only. Place your FIRST bet on any sportsbook market and if it loses we will refund your stake in CASH. Max refund for this offer is £20. Only deposits made using Cards or Apple Pay will qualify for this promotion. T&Cs apply. Paddy's Rewards Club: Get a £10 free bet when you place 5x bets of £10+. 18+ T&Cs apply.
  • View offer
    Get up to £100 in free bets
    Claim this offer
    New customer offer. Place 5 x £10 or more bets to receive £20 in free bets. Repeat up to 5 times to receive maximum £100 bonus. Min odds 1/2 (1.5). Exchange bets excluded. Payment restrictions apply. T&Cs apply.
  • View offer
    Bet £10 get £30 in free bets & a £10 Casino Bonus
    Claim this offer
    Bet £10, get £30 in free bets PLUS another £10 casino bonus. New customers only ? Min deposit £10 ? A qualifying bet is a 'real money' stake of at least £10 ? Min odds 1/2 (1.5) ? Free Bets credited upon qualifying bet settlement and expires after 7 days ? £30 free bets + £10 casino bonus ? Free Bet stakes not included in returns ? Deposit balance is available for withdrawal at any time ? Withdrawal restrictions & full T&Cs apply
  • View offer
    Up to £100 in Bet Credits
    Claim this offer
    Up to £100 in Bet Credits for new customers at bet365. Min deposit £5. Bet Credits available for use upon settlement of bets to value of qualifying deposit. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Time limits and T&Cs apply.
  • View offer
    Bet £10 get £30 in free bets
    Claim this offer
    18+. Play safe. New customers using Promo code H30 only, Min £10/?10 stake, min odds 1/2, free bets paid as 2 x £15/?15, free bets credited after settlement of first qualifying bet, free bets will expire 30 days after the qualifying bet is placed, payment method/player/country restrictions apply.
  • View offer
    Bet £5 get £20 in free bets
    Claim this offer
    18+ New UK+Ire customers. Paypal and certain deposit types and bet types excluded. Min £5 bet within 14 days of account reg at min odds 1/2 = 4 x £5 free bets. This sports promotion cannot be used in conjunction with another Ladbrokes.com sports or gaming promotion. Free bets valid for 7 days on sports, stake not returned, restrictions apply.
  • View offer
    Bet £5 get £20 in free bets
    Claim this offer
    18+ Eligible UK+IRE players. Paypal & some deposit & bet types excl. Min first £5 bet within 14 days of account reg at min odds 1/2 = 4x £5 free bets. Free bets valid for 7 days, stake not returned. This sports promotion cannot be used in conjunction with another Coral.co.uk sports or gaming promotion. No cash-out, restrictions & T&Cs apply.
  • View offer
    £50 in free bets, when you place a £10 bet
    Claim this offer
    New customers only. First single & e/w bet only. Odds of 1/1 or greater. 5 x £10 bet token. available till 16:40 19/06. Free bet stakes not included in returns. Free bets for horse racing only. Free bets are non withdrawable. No free bet expiry. Eligibility restrictions and further t&cs apply. 18+ begambleaware.org
  • View offer
    £10 welcome offer
    Claim this offer
    UK & ROI customers only. 18+. Place your first bet on sports pools and if it loses we'll refund your stake in cash. Max refund is £10. Qualifying bet is the first sports pool bet added to the betslip. Ten to Follow bets do not qualify. Totewin will be the qualifying bet when a Totewin and a Toteplace bet are struck at the same time. Full T&Cs apply. BeGambleaware.org
  • View offer
    Bet £5 get £20 in free bets
    Claim this offer
    18+ New UK+Ire customers. Paypal and certain deposit types and bet types excluded. Min £5 bet within 14 days of account reg at min odds 1/2 = 4 x £5 free bets. This sports promotion cannot be used in conjunction with another Ladbrokes.com sports or gaming promotion. Free bets valid for 7 days on sports, stake not returned, restrictions apply.
  • View offer
    Bet £5 get £20 in free bets
    Claim this offer
    18+ Eligible UK+IRE players. Paypal & some deposit & bet types excl. Min first £5 bet within 14 days of account reg at min odds 1/2 = 4x £5 free bets. Free bets valid for 7 days, stake not returned. This sports promotion cannot be used in conjunction with another Coral.co.uk sports or gaming promotion. No cash-out, restrictions & T&Cs apply.
  • View offer
    Up to £100 in Bet Credits
    Claim this offer
    Up to £100 in Bet Credits for new customers at bet365. Min deposit £5. Bet Credits available for use upon settlement of bets to value of qualifying deposit. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Time limits and T&Cs apply.
  • View offer
    Up to £50 in sports free bets
    Claim this offer
    Place a single £/?10 Sportsbook bet and get money back as a free bet if it loses. There are x5 Free Bets available. Max refund per qualifying bet is £/?10. Only deposits made via Credit/Debit Card will be eligible for the promotion. T&Cs apply.
  • View offer
    Up to £50 in free bets
    Claim this offer
    Place a single £10 Sportsbook bet and get money back as a free bet if it loses. There are x5 Free Bets available. Max refund per qualifying bet is £10. Only deposits made via Credit/Debit Card will be eligible for the promotion. Paddy's Rewards Club: Get a £10 free bet when you place 5x bets of £10+. 18+ T&Cs apply.
  • View offer
    Get £30 in free bets when you place a £5 bet
    Claim this offer
    New customers only. First single & e/w bet only. Odds of 1/1 or greater. 6 x £5 bet token. free bet stakes not included in returns. Free bets redeemable on horse racing only. Free bets are non withdrawable. No free bet expiry. Eligibility restrictions. Further t&cs apply. 18+. begambleaware.org.
  • View offer
    Bet £10 get £30 in free bets
    Claim this offer
    18+. Play safe. New customers using Promo code H30 only, Min £10/?10 stake, min odds 1/2, free bets paid as 2 x £15/?15, free bets credited after settlement of first qualifying bet, free bets will expire 30 days after the qualifying bet is placed, payment method/player/country restrictions apply.

What we can learn from previous tournaments about what might happen at Euro 2020

Doubt opens your mind to the possibilities of change

Portugal won just one game in 90 minutes when they became European champions five years ago
1 of 1

What would you call an international team who had won only one of their last seven games? Five years ago we called them European champions.

Portugal qualified from their group with three draws. In the knockout rounds they won in normal time in only one tie out of four – that was in the semi-finals against Wales. They drew in the others but came out on top in a tiebreak process – scoring in extra time in the round of 16 and final, succeeding in a penalty shootout in the quarter-finals.

In the Racing Post’s Euro 2016 preview I had written: “Perhaps the best bets are the major football nations available at the biggest odds – Italy at 18-1 and, maybe better still, Portugal at 22-1.”

Italy, I think, played better than Portugal, but they went out in the quarter-finals. Neither, I think, was the best team at the tournament. I did not expect them to be. I just felt that either was capable of winning if the wind got behind them, and it was as likely to blow for them as for anyone else.

In a film called The Weather Man a television presenter asks a backstage meteorologist: “So what’s it gonna do?” The meteorologist replies: “I don’t know. It’s a guess. It’s wind, man. Blows all over the place.”

Before many international tournaments I have climbed into a boat only for the wind to fill the sails of another. The wind will blow again during Euro 2020, but we cannot be sure where.

My philosophy for football, betting and life is the one Reginald Perrin slurred in a drunken speech to the British Fruit Association. It was delivered during episode five of the first series of The Fall and Rise of Reginald Perrin, a 1970s sitcom that was repeated recently on BBC Four.

“What do you believe in? I hear you ask. Do I? Do I hear you? I don’t. Well I’ll tell you anyway. I know that I don’t know. I believe in not believing. For every man who believes something there’s somebody who believes the opposite. What’s the point? How many wars would have been fought, how many people would have been tortured, if nobody had ever believed in anything? Have you ever heard of the wars of the apathetic, or the persecution of the apathetic by the bone idle?”

A recurrent finding of research into predictions is that there is an inverse relationship between a person’s confidence in their prediction and its accuracy. The more sure a person is that they are right the more likely they are to be wrong. This is because only people with doubts realise how different the future can be from the past.

Bookmakers say that during a football match if one team take the lead most bettors will back them in one market or another. Bookmakers generally end up with more money than bettors. So this must mean that more often than most of us bettors have noticed what happens next is different from what happened before.

During Euro 2016 the team who scored the first goal scored the second goal no more often than the team who conceded the first goal. Euro 2016 was just one tournament, of course. What about the others, all those between 1980 and 2012? The team who scored the first goal scored the second goal less often than the team who conceded the first goal. Only slightly, but still less often.

England manager Gareth Southgate has said: “We are awash with data, and that’s great – but what’s the bit that makes a difference? In football, we’re a low-scoring game with a lot of random events and so blips in the data you can read too much into.”

There are so many statistics now on football – and more are available to the public during a European Championship than during the Premier League. Most of them, though, have no bearing on the result. And who knows whether the others will be reproduced in the next match?

For every match at Euro 2016 I recorded whether the team with the better of a given statistic won, drew or lost. Teams with most possession lost more often than they won. So did teams who registered the highest passing accuracy and teams who completed most passes. Teams who ran furthest lost as often as they won.

But teams who committed most fouls won more often than they lost. So did teams who made most tackles and teams who made most clearances. Fouls, tackles, clearances – these are things players do when they are defending. And yet the teams with most of them won more often than they lost.

The best thing to do if you are going to bet on an international tournament, it seems to me, is to accept that in all probability a lot of developments will not make sense. Doubt is helpful, certainty is not. Because doubt opens your mind to the possibilities of change. “Doubt is uncomfortable,” said Voltaire, “but certainty is absurd.”


Not got a bet365 account? Sign up today and get up to £100 in bet credits

Up to £100 in Bet Credits for new customers at bet365. Min deposit £5. Bet Credits available for use upon settlement of bets to value of qualifying deposit. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Time limits and T&Cs apply.

CLAIM OFFER HERE


MORE FREE BETS


Sign up to emails from Racing Post Sport and get all the latest news and tips

Today's top sports betting stories

Follow us on Twitter @racingpostsport

Bookmakers say that during a football match if one team take the lead most bettors will back them in one market or another
Bookmaker
Price
E.W. Terms
Sporting
BetVictor
Boylesport
888sport