Sweden v Slovakia predictions: Group E sides look well matched

Free Euro 2020 football tips, best bets and analysis for Sweden v Slovakia in Group E on Friday.

Where to watch

BBC1, 2pm Friday

Best bet

Draw
1pt 12-5 bet365, Betfred, Hills

Everything points to Sweden struggling to break down Slovakia and if this turns into the low-scoring clash many envisage, the draw is a real possibility.

Team news

Sweden
Mattias Svanberg (Covid) is out but Dejan Kulusevski should return. Mikael Lustig (groin) is a doubt.

Slovakia
Cover defender Denis Vavro (Covid) is out.

Match preview

You'd have got a nice price about Sweden and Slovakia both having at least a point on the board after their opening round of Group E matches, but figuring out the next step for each of them isn't obvious.

Bookmakers certainly haven't taken any particularly strong views based on what they saw in Seville, where Sweden battled away for a 0-0 draw against Spain, and St Petersburg, where Slovakia beat ten-man Poland 2-1.

The Swedes were a shade of odds-on for this fixture before the finals, and they still are.

What coach Janne Andersson has promised is a more adventurous approach than their bus-parking masterclass against the Spanish, a tactic that ensured they ended up with 15 per cent possession, the lowest figure ever recorded in the tournament.

And, theoretically at least, they should pose a half-decent goal threat, especially if Dejan Kulusevski comes back and Alexander Isak gets another go.

But the Slovaks very much mirror the Swedes – strong through the spine, an insatiable work ethic, great team spirit and low expectations – and there are decent enough grounds for thinking they will neither get blown away, nor even beaten.

They'd take a point with three already to their name, and they'll set themselves up to be hard to break down and look for the likes of Robert Mak to offer the threat on the counter. And there are grounds for thinking they can get the stalemate they crave.

Keeping shape and defending in set blocks is everything in the modern game – Sweden proved that if you can do it well and with discipline even very good sides like Spain can't get through. If Slovakia match that discipline then they too can repel Sweden, who have never been the most imaginative of outfits.

Slovakia are the lowest-ranked of the quartet in Group F but they deservedly saw off the highly-rated Poles. Poland were enjoying their best spell of the match when they were reduced to ten men after half-time, but Slovakia had been far the better team in the first period and managed the game well after Grzegorz Krychowiak's expulsion.

They haven't had to budge from St Petersburg whereas the Swedes have had to jet in from southern Spain, and tournament football historically brings out the fighter in them. Twice before they have qualified for major finals and each time, contrary to odds and expectations, they made it through to the knockout phase.

They have suffered just one defeat, have drawn four of their last six and it's hard to see them being broken down by a side as functional as their opponents.

An under 2.5 goals quote of 8-13 confirms the suspicion this will be tight and short of goals, which also makes the draw a fair runner.

Key stat

Slovakia have drawn four of their last six matches

Inside info

Sweden

Penalty taker Seb Larsson
Free-kick wizard Emil Forsberg
Set-piece aerial threat Markus Danielsson
Card magnet Albin Ekdal

Slovakia

Penalty taker Marek Hamsik
Free-kick wizardMarek Hamsik
Set-piece aerial threatMilan Skriniar
Card magnetJuraj Kucka

Lowdown

Venue Krestovsky Stadium, St Petersburg
Fans allowed 34,000
Time Zone BST +2 hours
Weather Sunny, 27C
FIFA rankings Sweden (18), Slovakia (36)

Bet builder

Over 3.5 offsides
The Slovaks averaged 4 per game in qualifying so maybe aren't the best judges of the last man.

Over 4.5 corners
They averaged 5.7 in qualifying and will spend far more time around Slovakia's box than they did against Spain.

Draw-Slovakia double chance
No guarantees from Sweden but the Slovaks looked well organised against Poland.

The treble pays 15-4 with bet365

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