Italy v Wales prediction: Cagey encounter could be decided late on

Free Euro 2020 football tips, best bets and analysis for Italy v Wales in Group A on Sunday.

Where to watch

ITV, 5pm Sunday

Best bet

Second half to have more goals
1pt 11-10 bet365

Breaking through this defensively solid Italian team is going to be a challenge for Wales, who may opt to sit back before pushing for a late strike.

Team news

Italy
Giorgio Chiellini limped out of the win over Switzerland with a hamstring problem and is unlikely to be risked. Reports in Italy suggest seven changes will be made to the team.

Wales
Wales have no fresh injury concerns

Match preview

Italy have been the most impressive team of the tournament to date, although you could argue that their two 3-0 wins have come against disappointing Turkey and Switzerland sides.

The clash with unbeaten Wales should be a sterner test, but the Azzurri look strong enough – especially on home soil – to maintain their 100 per cent record.

Roberto Mancini’s men have seen their outright price slashed to around 6-1 and the former Manchester City boss has managed to mould a team who are equally impressive going forward
as they are defending.

Ciro Immobile has scored an incredible 123 league goals in five seasons with Lazio and the 31-year-old has been as sharp as a tack in the first two Group A matches.

The usually solid Italian defensive wall is as strong as ever as well and if Wales do ever get past their back four, they have the unenviable task of trying to beat Gianluigi Donnarumma. The Milan star has 16 clean sheets in 27 appearances for the national team, during which time he has never conceded more than one goal in a match.

Wales have surprised many with their first two displays at Euro 2020, and four points is likely to be enough to see them through to the knockout stages.

Rob Page will have to decide whether to gamble on resting some of his big names or to stick with the side who started the first two games of the tournament. Either way, Wales are likely to sit back and frustrate Italy as long as possible and then hope to nick a goal on the break.

Key stat

Italy have not conceded a goal in their last ten international matches.

Inside info

Italy

Penalty taker Ciro Immobile
Free-kick wizard Lorenzo Insigne
Set-piece aerial threat Leonardo Bonucci
Card magnet Manuel Locatelli

Wales

Penalty taker Gareth Bale/Aaron Ramsey
Free-kick wizardGareth Bale
Set-piece aerial threatKieffer Moore
Card magnetChris Mepham

Lowdown

Venue Stadio Olimpico, Rome
Fans allowed 18,000
Time Zone BST +1 hour
Weather Sunny and light winds, max 32C
FIFA rankings Italy 7, Wales 17

Bet builder

Italy to win
It would make a big statement to their rivals for Italy to win all three of their group games and will build an already growing impetus. The Azzurri have scored four goals in each of their last three
home meetings with Wales.

Second half to have more goals
Fourteen of Italy's last 19 goals have come in the second half of matches, while three of Wales's last four strikes have come after the break.

Ciro Immobile to score at any time
Having already bagged in the opening two games, there’s no doubt that the Lazio poacher Immobile will have the leading scorer prize in his sights.

Guide price 6-1

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