Belgium v Italy predictions: Azzurri have strength in depth to end Belgium's fun

Free Euro 2020 football tips, best bets and analysis for Belgium v Italy in the quarter-finals on Friday.

Where to watch

BBC One, 8pm Friday

Best bet

Italy
2pts 7-5 Betfred, Hills

Italy's substitutes won them the game against Austria and strength-in-depth could be the key to success over Belgium, who were showing the strain towards the end of their 1-0 victory over Portugal.

Team news

Belgium
Kevin De Bruyne (ankle) and Eden Hazard (hamstring) were forced off against Portugal and are doubts although neither has been ruled out.

Italy
Giorgio Chiellini and Alessandro Florenzi missed the 2-1 victory over Austria with minor injuries but have returned to full training.

Match preview

There are always bumps in the road at major tournaments but Italy remain on course for Euro 2020 glory despite their edgy 2-1 extra-time success over Austria and they should be too strong for Belgium at the Allianz Arena in Munich.

The Azzurri responded to their mini-crisis against Austria in fine style thanks to substitutes Federico Chiesa and Matteo Pessina, who popped up with well taken extra-time goals.

Roberto Mancini takes plenty of credit for the timing and substance of his changes and could be considering the merits of a second start of the tournament for Chiesa, who finished the domestic season on a high after scoring the winning goal in Juventus's 2-1 success over Atalanta in the Coppa Italia final.

Mancini has a few nice selection headaches to ponder but the build-up to the game seems more problematic for Belgium manager Roberto Martinez, who has injury concerns over Kevin De Bruyne and Eden Hazard.

Both were forced off during Sunday's last-16 success over Portugal which was achieved despite a shot count of 23 to six in favour of their opponents.

The Belgians also successfully deployed a 'rope-a-dope' strategy for their 2-1 group stage success over Denmark, losing the shot count 21 to six, although they were hugely reliant on the class of De Bruyne, who came off the bench to set up Thorgan Hazard's equaliser before slamming the winner past a despairing Kasper Schmeichel.

Successful teams often rely on talented individuals but it can be a dangerous strategy – just ask France – and often falls apart when too many of those key players are unable to reach peak performance.

One player Martinez can rely on is his centre-forward Romelu Lukaku.

The 28-year-old scored three times in the group stage but arguably his most important work was done against Portugal when his superb hold-up play was responsible for buying precious moments of respite for Martinez's overworked defence.

Belgium's clean sheet against Portugal was their third of the tournament yet there remains a suspicion that their back three – Toby Alderweireld, Thomas Vermaelen and Jan Vertonghen – are vulnerable when exposed to clever movement and genuine pace.

Italy did not have enough of that against Austria but they were hugely impressive in the 3-0 group stage wins over Turkey and Switzerland.

In those early stages of the tournament Italy stood out as a team to be feared and, if they return to those standards, they should book themselves a slot in the semi-finals.

Key stat

Italy are unbeaten in their last 31 matches

Inside info

Belgium

Penalty taker Romelu Lukaku
Free-kick wizard Kevin De Bruyne
Set-piece aerial threat Jan Vertonghen
Card magnet Jan Vertonghen

Italy

Penalty taker Ciro Immobile
Free-kick wizardLorenzo Insigne
Set-piece aerial threatLeonardo Bonucci
Card magnetMarco Verratti

Lowdown

Venue Allianz Arena, Munich
Fans allowed 13,000
Time Zone BST +1 hour
Weather Sunny intervals, max 20C
FIFA rankings Belgium (1), Italy (7)
Head to Head European Championships, June 2016 – Belgium 0 Italy 2; Friendly, November 2015 – Belgium 3 Italy 1.

Bet builder

Italy to qualify
Italy had a Wembley wobble against Austria but they came through unscathed and should take another step forward at the expense of the Belgians, who may struggle to live up to their world number one ranking.

Under four goals
England have the best defensive record in the tournament but Italy and Belgium are not far behind and are unlikely to generate a goal-fest in Munich.

Federico Chiesa to score at any time
Strikers thrive on confidence and Chiesa must be full of belief after his wonderful finish against Austria.

Guide price 7-1

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