Do not expect high-scoring affair when Donegal visit Dr Hyde Park
Roscommon set to change their approach on home soil
Roscommon v Donegal
Dr Hyde Park, 5pm
Roscommon were naive in defeat to Tyrone last week but they are unlikely to be so generous this time so back Donegal to score 21 points or fewer when they visit Dr Hyde Park for the second round of the Super 8s.
Roscommon are renowned for their attacking football but they played into Tyrone's hands at Croke Park last Saturday when conceding a colossal 4-24. Surely Kevin McStay will tweak a few things things to ensure they are not so easy to open up on this occasion.
Donegal scored two goals in all four of their Ulster championship encounters and racked up some huge scores on the way to winning the provincial title. But that trend may not continue at Dr Hyde Park, which is notorious for hosting low-scoring encounters.
Galway scored 0-16 in the Connacht final against Roscommon and it was enough to register a four-point win. Something in that area could be the winning score this time too.
Even McStay's starting line-up suggests his side will be less adventurous this time around, with Sean McDermott coming into the Roscommon full-back line in place of Niall Daly, while St Brigid's clubman Brian Stack joins the attack with Donie Smith making way.
Expect Enda Smith to funnel back into his half-back line to try to gain possession too but, more importantly, to try to block the channels that Tyrone exploited so easily.
Roscommon plied their trade in Division 2 of the league but the average total points in their outings at Dr Hyde Park was just 26.
Indeed, if you take out their 2-12 apiece draw with Meath, no team scored more than 14 points on Roscommon's home patch in the league campaign.
That tells you Roscommon can in fact play more defensively and they were hardly coughing up chance after chance against Galway in the Connacht final either. The Tribesmen had only 12 points on the board after an hour in that encounter.
Lessons must be learned from their Tyrone thrashing and Roscommon must make Donegal work harder for scores.
BoyleSports are offering 4-5 about under 2.5 goals which makes plenty of appeal, while under 21.5 Donegal points looks the best bet on the coupon.
Under 21.5 Donegal points
3pts 4-5 BoyleSports
Under 2.5 goals
3pts 4-5 BoyleSports
Tyrone v Dublin
Healy Park, 7pm
Con O'Callaghan's early goal was the catalyst for a wide-margin Dublin victory in last year's All-Ireland semi-final but expect Mickey Harte to have learned from his mistakes during that drubbing.
Tyrone could be cagey in the first half of this eagerly-awaited Super 8s showdown. As Donegal found out last weekend, you simply cannot afford to be chasing the game against this Dublin team.
It would come as little surprise to see Tyrone give up the kick-outs and let Stephen Cluxton flick the ball to his corner-back. That would allow his side to set up defensively and make them harder to break down.
It might not be until midway through the second half that this game opens up so get on the second half to be higher scoring than the first at 5-6 with Paddy Power.
Harte's troops have taken time to find their groove in 2018 but their latest performance against Roscommon, where they scored 4-24, suggested they are peaking at the perfect time and will be eager to exorcise the demons of their Dublin drubbing 12 months ago.
Centre-forward Niall Sludden was the star of the show in that Roscommon rout and he received the man-of-the-match accolade from Sky Sports for his contribution to the success. He also got the first goal.
Harte now has options in attack with Lee Brennan, Tyrone's top scorer in the league, in line for a return from injury. This game will define this Tyrone team.
Although Dublin never looked in trouble at any stage of their recent victory over Donegal, so many of their attacking unit failed to perform up to expectations and O'Callaghan and Paul Mannion will do well to hold on to their places.
Paul Flynn and Cormac Costello both excelled when introduced so it will be interesting to see what starting forward line Jim Gavin goes with. Niall Scully scored both goals in the win over Donegal, while Brian Howard excelled in his wing-back role.
This could be cagey and no goals at 13-2 is worth taking. The layers seem to have underestimated the influence of Dublin being taken out of Croke Park so under 19.5 Dublin points also appeals.
Second half to be higher scoring
3pts 5-6 Paddy Power
Under 19.5 Dublin points
2pts 10-11 Paddy Power
1pt 13-2 general
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