Tour de France 2026 predictions, tips and odds: More history beckons for Tadej Pogacar

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The 113th Tour de France begins in Barcelona on Saturday and, not for the first time in his career, cycling's dominant rider, Tadej Pogacar, is long odds-on to defend his crown. 

Victory this year would see Pogacar move level with Jacques Anquetil, Eddy Merckx, Bernard Hinault and Miguel Indurain as five-time Tour winners and on the evidence of the spring, the world champion's insatiable appetite for victories shows no sign of abating.

Best bets for the 2026 Tour de France

Tadej Pogacar-Jonas Vingegaard straight forecast
6pts 8-13 bet365

Juan Ayuso to win young riders classification
2pts 7-2 general

Juan Ayuso top-three finish
1pt 7-1 general

Tour de France predictions

The brilliance of Kylian Mbappe, Ousmane Dembele and Michael Olise has got the French public dreaming of a party on the streets of Paris later this month – but a first home winner of the Tour de France in over four decades would be celebrated just as wildly.

Thibaut Pinot and Romain Bardet threatened to end a drought stretching back to Bernard Hinault's fifth and final yellow jersey success in 1985, but neither could turn podium finishes into a place on the top step. Julian Alaphilippe had a memorable run in yellow in 2019 but, predictably, the high mountains ended the gallant challenge of the one-day specialist.

Step forward Paul Seixas. The 19-year-old has burst on to the World Tour this season, building on the promise that carried him to the Tour de l'Avenir – often dubbed the 'Baby Tour de France' – title last August. 

Despite his tender years, Seixas has already shown flashes of brilliance this season and perhaps will be the man to finally end France's wait for a Tour winner. The trouble is he is now in a peloton alongside probably the greatest to have ridden a bike.

It is hard to think of a more dominant sportsman or woman than Tadej Pogacar, who is taking aim at a record-equalling fifth yellow jersey this month, and, ominously, the Slovenian superstar reckons he is stronger and faster than last year, when he won the Tour by almost four and a half minutes from Jonas Vingegaard.

That Vingegaard was six minutes ahead of Florian Lipowitz in third shows just how superior cycling's big two are in three-week races. 

Two-time Tour winner Vingegaard went on to win the Vuelta a Espana in September and completed the Grand Tour set with victory at the Giro d'Italia in May. He will become only the fourth man to hold all of cycling's three-week titles at the same time should he turn the tables on Pogacar. 

Of course, he has beaten the world champion before in 2022, when team tactics helped the Dane crack the Slovene on the Col du Granon, and a year later when Pogacar entered the race under an injury cloud. But Pogacar is a more formidable beast these days and his performance at last month's Tour de Suisse was another reminder of his stranglehold over the sport. 

Pogacar won the five-stage race by 6min 32sec, the biggest winning margin in 67 years, and he won three of the five stages for good measure. Indeed, Pogi has taken in 16 racedays this year and won 11 of them, including Milan-San Remo, the Tour of Flanders and Liege-Bastogne-Liege.

Neither Pogacar nor Vingegaard has finished lower than second at a Grand Tour since 2021 and for the sixth straight year the top two places look theirs for the taking, with Pogacar expected to join Anquetil, Hinault, Merckx and Indurain in the pantheon of Tour greats.

Paul Seixas and Isaac del Toro are among the favourites to win the white jersey for best young rider at the Tour de FranceCredit: Getty Images

Three-way fight for white a fascinating sub-plot

The young riders classification is rarely a highlight of the Tour but this year's contest is intriguing. 

Seixas is the favourite at 5-4 but Pogacar's teammate Isaac del Toro and Spaniard Juan Ayuso are no bigger than 7-2, making it a three-way fight for the white jersey. 

While the French favourite's talent is not in question, Seixas has never competed in a three-week race before and how he deals with the unique demands and scrutiny of being France's new great hope is unknown. 

The credentials of Del Toro and Ayuso are much more certain. 

Del Toro almost won the Giro d'Italia last year, but some bizarre team tactics saw him surrender the pink jersey to Simon Yates on the penultimate stage, while Ayuso has long been touted as a general classification contender in the biggest races. 

Del Toro won last month's Tour Auvergne–Rhone-Alpes, a race Seixas did not finish after a crash on the penultimate stage, ahead of Ayuso, who was third, but it is hard to know how much work he will have to do for Pogacar in the mountains in the final week.

Ayuso has no such concerns after leaving UAE Team Emirates under a cloud last year and will have the majority of his new team, Lidl-Trek, doing the hard work for him. 

The 23-year-old beat Seixas at the Tour of the Algarve and was leading Paris-Nice before a heavy crash on a rain-soaked stage four ended his chances. 

He went off favourite for the Giro last year and may be slightly overlooked by bookmakers. With Remco Evenepoel yet to show his true hand this season, the third step on the podium may go to the best young rider this year.

Latest Tour de France betting odds

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Tour de France 2026 stage-by-stage guide

Tour de France FAQs

When is the 2026 Tour de France?

The 113th Tour de France begins on Saturday, July 4 in Barcelona and concludes on the Champs-Elysees in Paris on Sunday, July 26.

Who are the favourites to win the 2026 Tour de France?

Tadej Pogacar is the odds-on favourite to win a fifth yellow jersey after winning the Tour in 2020, 2021, 2024 and 2025. Two-time winner Jonas Vingegaard is expected to be his nearest challenger at 100-30.

Who is the defending Tour de France champion?

Slovenian superstar Tadej Pogacar won a fourth Tour de France title in 2025 and will join Jacques Anquetil, Eddy Merckx, Bernard Hinault and Miguel Indurain as a record-equalling five-time winner if he claims another yellow jersey.

Why does the Tour de France leader wear a yellow jersey?

The leader of the Tour de France wears a yellow jersey, or the Maillot Jaune, to signify their status at the top of the general classification. Yellow was chosen as the colour for the leader's jersey because the race's original sponsor, L'Auto, was printed on yellow paper.

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