Flying Federer looks primed to reclaim grass-court crown

Starts 11.30am Monday

Champion's best bet
Roger Federer 9-4
If Rafael Nadal is the best player ever to grace a clay court, his great rival and friend Roger Federer is probably the best to play on turf.

The seven-time Wimbledon champion has not tasted All England Club glory since defeating Andy Murray in the 2012 final, but he is blessed with a wonderful opportunity to capture an eighth crown with question marks over many of his rivals.

While few have questioned Federer's standing among the greats, many wondered whether he would ever succeed at the highest level again before he silenced the naysayers at the Australian Open, defeating Nadal in an epic five-set Melbourne final to claim his 18th Grand Slam title.

That would have proved a fitting climax to one of sport's most storied rivalries but they have met twice since, Federer winning both matches at Indian Wells and Miami.

All of that achieved at the ripe old age of 35.

The Swiss legend then skipped the clay season, reasoning that he could not defeat Nadal on the surface when the pair were at their peak and he was even less likely to do so in the twilight of his career. That decision looked justified when Nadal romped to his tenth Roland Garros but Federer should appreciate the break.

He resumed on grass in Stuttgart with a surprise defeat against fellow veteran Tommy Haas but bounced back to form to win a ninth title in Halle, ruthlessly dispatching rising star Alexander Zverev in the final.

Even while he wasn't winning Grand Slam titles, Wimbledon was the scene of his best recent top-level performances.

The 35-year-old reached back-to-back finals in 2014 and 2015 before losing to Milos Raonic in last year's semi-finals. Federer is arguably playing better than at any time in the last five years and only a serious performance is likely to stop him.

If anyone can produce that, it could be Nadal.

The Majorcan believes he has gone to Wimbledon in better shape than he has done in years. Yet he has failed to advance any further than the fourth round since losing to Novak Djokovic in the 2011 final.

But the Spaniard looked close to his supreme best on his beloved clay as he rattled off title after title while Federer bided his time.

Nadal is the second favourite behind the Swiss, but when the matches start to get longer in the later rounds will his fragile body pass the test?

He may have peaked on the Parisian clay and his recent Wimbledon record has to be of a concern in relation to Federer's.

And what of Murray and Djokovic? They have undoubtedly been the two best players at the All England Club in the last few years but are struggling to make an impact this season.

Murray has battled injury and illness throughout the spring and the reigning Wimbledon champ struggled to regain his form on the clay, losing to several inferior opponents.

He has never looked at his peak on the slow red courts and plenty drew positives from Murray's performance at the French Open, where he bowed out in the semi-finals against a determined Stan Wawrinka.

Yet at Queen's Club in the Briton's traditional grass warm-up, he met with a shock defeat to Jordan Thompson in the opening round and the questions he was striving to answer became louder.

A hip injury has seen Murray's odds drift to retain his crown. Vying for third-favouritism would have looked ludicrous 12 months ago but now it seems understandable.

Djokovic must also prove he can rediscover his best form. It was at Wimbledon last year where the Serb, who had just completed the career Slam at the French Open to hold all four major titles at once, first started to show chinks in his armour.

Sam Querrey knocked out the 5-6 ante-post favourite in the third round and Djokovic's aura soon started to fade.

He has since won just three ATP Tour titles and, while his Eastbourne victory was a step in the right direction, he is yet to convince that he still possesses the desire to shine at the top level.

The 30-year-old described his split from his coaching staff as "shock therapy" before recruiting Andre Agassi on a part-time basis. While there were signs of encouragement at the French Open, Djokovic was destroyed in three sets by Dominic Thiem in the quarter-finals and is difficult to trust in London.

Murray and Djokovic have plenty to prove if they're to stop Federer claiming an eighth title and quotes of bigger than 2-1 about the most successful male player in Slam history could look generous in two weeks.

Federer has been drawn in the same quarter as Raonic but the giant Canadian has been struggling with injury, exiting Queen's in the first round against Thanasi Kokkinakis. Federer should turn the tables if they meet again.

Next best
J-W Tsonga to win first quarter 12-1
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga is likely to be largely overlooked by outright punters, rightly so given his Grand Slam record, but the Frenchman could pull off a minor surprise by dominating the first quarter.

Tsonga is housed alongside Murray in the top section but, with the Scot going into the tournament under a cloud, it may pay to look beyond the market leader.

Nick Kyrgios is second-favourite to advance to the last four and he has the talent to go a long way on grass. But the Aussie firebrand has been struggling with injury problems – he withdrew in the opening round at Queen's – and temperament issues continue to blight his otherwise impressive game.

Wawrinka is always a popular choice to upset the big four but the French Open finalist has never been at his best on the grass, while big-serving South African Kevin Anderson has the potential to go well but also has injury concerns.

Tsonga was outgunned by Gilles Muller at Queen's but the 12th seed is a two-time Wimbledon semi-finalist and he took Murray to five sets in the quarter-finals last season.

He looks to have an easy route to the fourth round, where he could face Querrey but Anderson, Wawrinka, Fernando Verdasco and Eastbourne semi-finalist Daniil Medvedev will all have to fight it out for a third-round spot.

Others to note
Alexander Zverev The exciting young German could go far but was brushed aside by Federer in the Halle final and is drawn in the same quarter as the seven-time champion.
Grigor Dimitrov The Queen's semi-finalist has the ability to go deep in Slams but has looked mentally fragile in later rounds.
Dominic Thiem The Austrian has produced impressive results in recent seasons, although fatigue is a concern and he is better on slower courts.
Juan Martin del Potro The 2009 US Open champ is a nice price but is likely to face Djokovic in third round.
Feliciano Lopez The Queen's champ is playing well at 36 but that victory may prove to be his day in the sun.
Kei Nishikori The Japanese ace has been hampered by niggles and has struggled to make an impact at Wimbledon.
Jack Sock The talented American could be overlooked by bookmakers if he is fit after injury forced him to withdraw from Queen's.

Recommendations
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