Cream should rise to top of the table
The seeding system favours the big clubs in the early stages of the Champions League and punters should not expect many group-stage shocks.
Ignoring the obvious could be a costly tactic and a much better approach focusing on the top teams coming through and putting them in a multiple, starting with Paris St-Germain and Arsenal.
The last time Arsenal failed to make it to the last 16 of the Champions League was in 1999 when they played their home matches at Wembley. Since then Arsene Wenger’s team have always come through, despite some scary moments.
Arsenal are good enough for a top-two finish here along with PSG, who look weaker than last season but should still comfortable reach the knockout stages given the limitations of makeweight sides Basel and Ludogorets.
Basel have won every match they have played this season but the form of the Swiss Super League took a severe knock in the playoffs when Young Boys, the second-best side in the domestic championship, were beaten 9-2 on aggregate by Monchengladbach.
That shows the jump up in quality Basel are about to take, while Bulgarian side Ludogorets are likely to finish bottom without necessarily being totally outclassed.
Ludogorets were last at this level in 2014 when they beat Basel at home, drew with Liverpool and lost only 2-1 at Real Madrid.
See Group D