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Saturday, 15 December, 2018

Chiefs should freeze out Titans at Arrowhead

Low points total looks best bet

Rookie Kareem Hunt has had a great start to his Kansas City career
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Sky Sports Action & Main Event, 9.35pm Saturday

Eight of Kansas City’s last nine playoff campaigns have ended after just one game but they can make it through to the divisional round this time by seeing off a Tennessee team who have never quite caught fire this term.

The Titans were pipped to the AFC South title by Jacksonville despite beating the Jaguars twice but the rest of their wins came against teams who missed the playoffs and they had lost three games in a row before last week’s drama.


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The Chiefs enjoy a strong home advantage at Arrowhead and none of the last 14 visiting teams have scored more than 20 points.

Tennessee tend to be involved in scrappy contests and their quarterback Marcus Mariota has not shone this season, while running back Derrick Henry must shoulder a greater load with DeMarco Murray ruled out.

The Chiefs should grind out a victory with their superior offensive weapons in running back Kareem Hunt, wide receiver Tyreek Hill and tight end Travis Kelce.

The Titans defend the run pretty well, so Hunt may do his best work as a pass catcher and Kelce could be the key man against a defence who have struggled against tight ends.

Overall a low points total looks the best bet in what look set to be freezing conditions.

Recommendation
Under 44.5 points
1pt 10-11 Coral, Ladbrokes


The lowdown
Venue Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri
Surface Grass
Weather Freezing but dry, -1C
Vegas handicap Tennessee +8.5
Vegas points line 44.5

Team news
Tennessee
Running back DeMarco Murray (knee) has been ruled out. Guard Quinton Spain (back) is rated questionable to play.

Kansas City
Wide receiver Albert Wilson (hamstring) and linebacker Tamba Hali (knee) are set to play. Defensive lineman Rakeem Nunez-Roches (ankle) is doubtful. Alex Smith starts at quarterback after being rested last week. Wide receiver De’Anthony Thomas (broken leg), running back Akeem Hunt (ankle) and cornerback Phillip Gaines (elbow) will miss the rest of the season.

Key stat
Tennessee have covered the handicap in only two of their last seven road games.


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The Chiefs should grind out a victory with their superior offensive weapons
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