down cross right results icon premium content video audio lifeNews icon-comment tick starFilled betSlip hot icon-liveCommentary refresh spinner
coral logo ladbrokes logo betway logo williamHill logo bet365 logo paddypower logo 888sport logo
TODAY'S OFFERS
TODAY'S BOOKMAKER OFFERS
Exclusive to new customers
  • View offer
    Bet £5 get £20 in free bets
    Claim here
    Open an account with Ladbrokes using promo code 20FREE and place £5 of bets, you'll get £20 in free bets. 18+ New UK+Ire customers. Paypal and certain deposit types and bet types excluded. Min £5 bet within 14 days of account reg at min odds 1-2 = 4 x £5 free bets. Free bets valid for 7 days on sports, stake not returned, restrictions apply. T&Cs apply.
  • View offer
    £20 Risk free first bet
    Claim here
    Open an account with Paddy Power and place your first bet on any Sportsbook market and if it loses they will refund your stake in cash, max refund for this offer is £20. Limited to one per person. If you've previously had a Paddy Power account, you will not qualify for the offer. Only deposits using Cards or Paypal will qualify. T&Cs apply
  • View offer
    Up to £30 in free bets
    Claim here
    Join betway, opt in, deposit £10 or more and you will get a 100% matched amount, up to £30 as free bets to split however you like. T&Cs apply. 1 x wagering at odds of 1.75+ to unlock free bet. Deposit by card or paypal only.
  • View offer
    Bet £10 get £30 in free bets
    Claim here
    Open an account with William Hill using promo code C30, bet £10 and get £30 in free bets. Min £10 stake, win only, min odds 1/2, free bets paid as 3 x £10, 30 day expiry, free bet/payment method/player/country restrictions apply. T&Cs apply
  • View offer
    Bet £10 get £30 in free bets
    Claim here
    Open a betting account with Coral through our site and when you place your first bet on horse racing (£10 or more) they'll give you 3 x £10 free bets. 18+. UK+IRE New Customers Only. First bet at least £10 or £10 each-way, at fractional odds totalling 1/2 or greater. Free Bets credited as 3 x £10. Free bet valid for 7 days. Free bet will not be included in any winnings. T&Cs Apply
  • View offer
    Up to £100 in Bet Credits
    Claim here
    Up to £100 in Bet Credits for new customers at bet365. Min deposit £5. Bet Credits available for use upon settlement of bets to value of qualifying deposit. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Time limits and T&Cs apply.
  • View offer
    Bet £10 get £40 in free bets
    Claim here
    Join 888sport using promo code RACING and when you bet £10, you'll get £30 in free bets PLUS £10 in free bets on any horse racing market. Min deposit £10. First bet minimum odds 1-2. Free bet credited upon qualifying bet settlement and expires after 7 days. Free bet stakes not included in returns. Deposit method and withdrawal restrictions apply. T&Cs apply.
  • View offer
    £50 Risk free first bet
    Claim here
    Open an account with Paddy Power and place your first bet on any Sportsbook market and if it loses they will refund your stake in cash, max refund for this offer is £50. Limited to one per person. If you've previously had a Paddy Power account, you will not qualify for the offer. Only deposits using Cards or Paypal will qualify. T&Cs apply
  • View offer
    Bet £10 get £40 in free bets
    Claim here
    Open an account with Ladbrokes using promo code RP40 and place £10 in bets and you'll get £40 in free bets. 18+ New UK+Ire customers. Paypal and certain deposit types and bet types excluded. Min £10 bet within 14 days of account reg at min odds 1-2 = 4 x £10 free bets. Free bets valid for 7 days on sports, stake not returned, restrictions apply. T&Cs apply.
  • View offer
    Up to £100 in Bet Credits
    Claim here
    Up to £100 in Bet Credits for new customers at bet365. Min deposit £5. Bet Credits available for use upon settlement of bets to value of qualifying deposit. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Time limits and T&Cs apply.
  • View offer
    Bet £10 get £40 in free bets
    Claim here
    Open a betting account with Coral through our site and when you place your first bet on horse racing (£10 or more) they'll give you 4 x £10 free bets. 18+. UK+IRE New Customers Only. First bet at least £10 or £10 each-way, at fractional odds totalling 1/2 or greater. Free Bets credited as 4 x £10. Free bet valid for 4 days. Free bet will not be included in any winnings. T&Cs Apply
  • View offer
    Bet £10 get £30 in free bets
    Claim here
    Open an account with William Hill using promo code C30, bet £10 and get £30 in free bets. Min £10 stake, win only, min odds 1/2, free bets paid as 3 x £10, 30 day expiry, free bet/payment method/player/country restrictions apply. T&Cs apply

Card trends point to a punt at the Emirates

Arsenal's Granit Xhaka is shown a yellow card
1 of 1

Bet365 may have underestimated the chance of Arsenal receiving at least as many cards as Crystal Palace in the Premier League game at the Emirates. Back Arsenal +1 Asian handicap cards at decimal odds of 1.9 – equivalent to fractional odds of 9-10.

Each yellow will count as one and each red as two. If Arsenal’s total is equal to or greater than Palace’s the bet will win, if it is one lower stakes will be returned and if it is anything else the bet will lose.

Let’s be cautious as we consider the chances of different outcomes. It is usually a sensible thing to do when betting.

The way cards are distributed between teams varies with the difference in ability between them.

Palace have risen up the table under new manager Roy Hodgson. Their performance-related stats suggest they deserve to be in the top half of the table. But before kick-off today they are 12th, and the wise and experienced Hodgson says they must still think of themselves as being in a relegation scrap.

Palace’s average finishing position in the four other seasons since they returned to the Premier League was 13th. So at the risk of doing them a disservice let’s take them as still a bottom-half-of-the-table team.

Arsenal have suffered some disappointing results recently but they have always been and still are one of the top few teams in the Premier League.

What happened at the Emirates in previous seasons when Arsenal played teams who finished in the bottom half of the table? Fifty times Arsenal received as many or more cards than the visitors, 28 times the visitors received one more card than Arsenal and 32 times they received at least two more cards.

So backers of Arsenal +1 Asian handicap cards would have won noticeably more often than they lost.

The ratio of wins to losses would have been more heavily in their favour than is suggested by bet365’s odds. But there is nothing in the recent card counts of either team or the referee to indicate that the chance of each outcome is much different than is suggested by what happened in the past.

The referee will be Chris Kavanagh, a good young official in his first full season in the Premier League who, rightly, seems to be highly regarded by his bosses. His Football League debut was as recent as August 2014.

Recommendation
Arsenal +1 Asian handicap cards
1pt 1.9 bet365


Thoughts for the week

Liverpool 4 Manchester City 3. “Wow. What a game. Two teams, full throttle… Take your heart, throw it on the pitch and play like this.” And that was only the reaction of Liverpool manager Jurgen Klopp.

Others were equally enthusiastic. We could watch that over and over again seemed to be the consensus.

But what if we could? What if Liverpool and Manchester City played against each other in the same way over and over again? What would happen?

The commonest score would probably be 1-1, based on Opta’s expected goals calculations from Anfield last Sunday. With that number and quality of chances they would expect both teams to average just under one goal.

Other games played in the same way would be just as exciting – or at least they would be for those of us who can enjoy play independently of goals – but rarely would the aggregate score reach seven. More often than not, backers of under 2.5 goals would also be delighted.


Perhaps we should be more understanding of players who retaliate.

French referee Tony Chapron was suspended for kicking a player he thought had tripped him deliberately. He then showed them a second yellow card and sent them off.

Afterwards when he saw television replays he realised the collision had been accidental and asked for the second yellow card to be rescinded.

Chapron is an experienced referee. He has officiated in Ligue 1 since 2006 and also appeared in the Champions League and World Cup qualifiers.

Perhaps hitting out when you feel you have been attacked – instinctively, before you have collected your thoughts – is a deep-rooted, animalistic reaction.


Today's top sports betting stories

Follow us on Twitter @racingpostsport

Like us on Facebook RacingPostSport

Arsenal have suffered some disappointing results recently but they have always been and still are one of the top few teams in the Premier League
Bookmaker
Price
E.W. Terms
Sporting
BetVictor
Sky bet
Boylesport
RaceBets