BBC Sports Personality of the Year: guide to the field and best bet

Best bet

Alun Wyn Jones (betting without Ben Stokes)
2pts 9-4 general
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Preview

When Anthony Joshua was stunned by Andy Ruiz in their first title tight in June of this year it was the second time the Watford heavyweight had failed to land a long odds-on price.

He was 1-20 that day to overcome Ruiz, and he was 1-5 two years ago to win the BBC Sports Personality of the Year award, but not only did he fail to take the prize, he didn't even make the top three.

The previous year Andy Murray had eased to victory at odds of 1-7, gaining more than double the number of votes of second-placed Alistair Brownlee.

The favourite has won in six of the last ten years - apart from Joshua the stars to have fallen short were Harry Kane in 2018 (7-4), Rory McIlroy, a 1-2 shot in 2014 but pipped by Lewis Hamilton, and Jenson Button, who was evens in 2009 but finished second to Ryan Giggs.

This year cricketer Ben Stokes is the 1-7 market leader and there is no one stand-out rival in the field, with 16-1 Dina Asher-Smith the next best.

Ben Stokes

For: His Cricket World Cup contribution started with a spectacular catch in the first game and ended with a match-winning knock in a England's thrilling final victory. He followed it with some individual Ashes heroics, hitting an unbeaten 135 in the third Test.

Against: The summer often seems a long time ago when December rolls around - and England failing to reclaim the Ashes and losing their Test series in New Zealand did not strengthen his case.

Dina Asher-Smith

For: It was another stellar year for the athlete who claimed the 200m gold at the World Championships with a British record, making her the first British woman to win a global sprint title.

Against: Her 2018 achievements - a hat-trick of European titles at 100m, 200m and 4x100m - were not enough to get her in the top three.

Lewis Hamilton

For: A record-breaking year ended with a sixth Formula One Drivers Championship, putting him behind only Michael Schumacher in the history of the sport. A former winner and three-time runner-up.

Against: Hamilton divides opinions with his lifestyle away from the race track and there was a lack of drama in his success this year.

Alun Wyn Jones

Pros: The big lock forward led Wales to a Six Nations Grand Slam, picking up the player of the tournament award, and Rugby World Cup semi-final. He is now Wales's most capped international.

Against: Wales again fell short of the World Cup final, and a rugby forward's show reel is always going to lack stardust moments.

Raheem Sterling

For: The Man City striker was named Football Writers' Association Footballer of the Year and helped Man City to a domestic treble. He has also been a leading voice against recent incidents of racist behaviour at matches.

Against: Footballers have fared badly outside World Cup years, possibly because of the partisan nature of club fans.

Katarina Johnson-Thompson

For: The heptathlete won gold at the World Championships with a British record and the highest championship score since 2007.

Against: Her achievements this year don't match up to those of Dina Asher-Smith, who is likely to pick up the majority of support from athletics fans.

Verdict

Stokes may or may not have done enough this year to be named among the stars of previous years, but the point is whether any of his rivals can mount a serious challenge and it's hard to see who, if anyone, can.

The votes look set to be split around the other five, each of whom has a claim to finish second, except possibly outsider Katarina Johnson-Thompson.

Raheem Sterling does not appear to have the strongest case as all his successes have come on the domestic stage which is unlikely to win him votes from fans of other clubs.

That leaves the trio of Dina Asher-Smith, Lewis Hamilton and Alun Wyn Jones, all of whom are odds-on to finish in the top three.

But there may be some value in backing Welshman Jones in the market without Stokes. He will unite the Welsh vote and there is plenty of evidence to suggest regional block voting plays a part.

There have been only three English winners in the last 12 years, and the three Welsh winners in that run - Joe Calzaghe in 2007, Ryan Giggs in 2009 and Geraint Thomas last year - all overcame fancied favourites.

Another Wales rugby favourite, Leigh Halfpenny, finished second in 2013 having been rated a 200-1 shot, and the widely respected Jones must have a strong chance of emulating that success.

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