Alex Wrigley: Underdogs could bite back with City uneasy favourites

The stage is set for a 17th straight all-Premier League FA Cup final, but the magic of the cup would enjoy a welcome revival if Crystal Palace were to land their first major trophy, consigning financial behemoths Manchester City to their first trophyless season since 2016-17 in the process.

The Eagles, whose biggest accolade is winning promotion from the second tier six times, hop across the capital to Wembley as 11-5 underdogs to lift the trophy against Pep Guardiola’s seven-time champions, who are competing in the FA Cup final for the third consecutive year.

But is backing the little man in the FA Cup more than just a romantic throwback to the good old days, or could it actually be profitable?

Odds-on favourites City are no strangers to an upset, with punters being handsomely rewarded for their bravery both this season and in recent FA Cup finals.

Cross-city rivals Manchester United upset the odds as 15-2 underdogs in last season’s final, marking the sixth occasion in the past 20 years that the outsiders have lifted the trophy.

That derby defeat, a reversal of the previous year’s final, was also the second-biggest upset in terms of pre-match odds. The biggest was Wigan’s 17-2 upset against - you guessed it - City in 2013.

The chart below highlights how punters would have been rewarded if they blindly backed the last 20 FA Cup final underdogs to win inside 90 minutes, yielding a striking 53% return on investment. 

Favourite backers made a slight loss over this period, while those who like to hedge their bets in the double-chance market made a more modest profit of 2.4 units.

Clearly, going against the grain can be a rewarding tactic, and the profit swells to 13 units for any punters who backed only City's opponents during this period.

Interestingly, the same rings true if you examine the favourites’ recent encounters with Palace, who have a surprisingly solid recent record against City.

The Eagles were holding their own before a second-half collapse resulted in a 5-2 defeat in April, but they earned a point at Selhurst Park in the reverse fixture and produced one of the biggest Premier League upsets in recent years, winning 2-0 at the Etihad in 2021 as 17-1 underdogs.

That is their only victory since 2018 against the Citizens, but they have picked up four draws in their last 11 meetings and have averaged over a goal-per-game across the period.

The chart below breaks down the returns across a number of markets in these recent head-to-heads.

Once again, going against the favourites tends to pay off. This approach is made all the more attractive when you consider that a level £1 stake on City to win each of their 53 competitive matches this season would have yielded a loss of £12.74.

Palace’s goalscoring record in these fixtures has also led to a slight profit in the both teams to score market and, quite remarkably, a precise breakeven return for over 2.5 goals backers.

With bookmakers predicting cagey affairs, the latter of these markets has yielded a small profit over the last 20 FA Cup finals, too, with an average of 2.35 goals-per-game in regulation time during this period.

These 47 goals are split into 30 for the favourites and 17 for the underdogs, although that number is heavily skewed by the ten goals scored by City and Arsenal in respective thrashings of Watford and Aston Villa.

The traditional big six have ruled the Wembley stage of late, winning nine of the last ten FA Cups, but City’s vulnerabilities this season suggest Glasner’s Eagles could etch their name into FA Cup history - and deliver another payday for underdog backers - on Saturday.

Read more . . .

FA Cup final predictions, expert betting tips and latest odds for Crystal Palace vs Man City: Wembley shock on the cards 

FA Cup final Bet Builder tips and predictions: Sarr can shine on the big occasion 

Mark Langdon: One FA Cup tradition that needs to remain 

The Pro Punter: Nick Goff's FA Cup final verdict 

WATCH: Don't miss The Assist, the football betting show from the Racing Post 

Click for more free bets and betting offers from the Racing Post

Commercial notice: This article contains affiliate links. Offers are handpicked and come from operators our experts have first-hand experience of. Opening an account via one of these links will earn revenue for the Racing Post, which will be used to continue producing our award-winning coverage of horseracing and sports betting.