Who will win the King George VI Chase based on previous trends?

All eyes will be on the Ladbrokes King George VI Chase (3.00) on an action-packed day of racing at Kempton on Saturday. We've taken a look at the previous runnings and picked out the key factors to help predict this year's winner.

Ground

Conditions are expected to be predominantly good to soft at Kempton which is, on the whole, suitable for all of the runners in the line-up.

Two of Cyrname's best three performances have come on good to soft, while two of Clan Des Obeaux's four best efforts were under the same conditions.

Lostintranslation: should relish conditions at KemptonCredit: Edward Whitaker

The ground looks ideal for Lostintranslation too, who has posted his two best RPRs on good to soft. The same stat applies for Real Steel, who won by 15 lengths on yielding in Ireland. The going should also benefit the chances of Waiting Patiently and Frodon.

Saint Calvados has won on yielding ground in Ireland, but only once, while Black Op and Santini have never won on this ground.

Age

Since 2000, seven winners have been seven-year-olds and four have been six and eight. Only two winners, 11-year-olds Edredon Bleu and Kauto Star, have triumphed in the veteran years of their racing careers.

With seven-year-old's exceptional record in the race, Saint Calvados and Real Steel have to be considered. There are no horses older than ten in this year's editon, but the trends are firmly against nine-year-olds Waiting Patiently and Black Op.

Form

Five of the last ten winners came to Kempton off the back of victories, while an additional four posted top three finishes.

Only one runner, Cyrname, comes here following a win and looks to emulate Cue Card, the only horse to plunder the Charlie Hall and King George in the same year.

Cyrname: rated 177 following his victory at Ascot on SaturdayCredit: Mark Cranham (racingpost.com/photos)

Three King George winners had finished second or third in the Betfair Chase, which bodes well for this year's finishers Clan Des Obeaux and Lostintranslation. Santini was second last time and can not be ruled out.

Trip

The ideal King George horse has a balance of natural speed to cut it at Grade 1 level over two-and-a-half miles, but also evidence of safely staying three miles.

Eight of the last ten winners had won a Graded race over a distance between 2m4f and 2m6f, while seven have won over at least three miles.

Only Cyrname, Frodon, Clan Des Obeaux and Lostintranslation meet both criteria, with the former two the only runners in the line-up to have won an open Grade 1.

The stats are against Saint Calvados, Waiting Patiently and Real Steel who have not proven they stay the distance, while Santini and Black Op have doubts about the speed required to win a King George.

Racing Post Ratings

Seven of the last ten winners had an RPR of 177 or higher ahead of the big race, a rating which just half of the field have reached so far.

Cyrname (183), Clan Des Obeaux (182), Lostintranslation (179) and Santini (179) have the right credentials for the race.

Interestingly, only two of the last ten winners were the top-rated in the race.

Favourites

Just four of the last ten King George champions went off favourite with the shortest-priced winner being 2016 hero Thistlecrack at 11-10. Eight winners, however, were priced at 9-2 or shorter with Clan Des Obeaux an exception when sent off at 12-1 and 11-2 for his two wins.

Thistlecrack: went off at 11-10 when victorious here in 2016Credit: Edward Whitaker

In terms of odds, only Clan Des Obeaux and Cyrname fit the bill of horses priced at 9-2 or shorter at this stage.

Verdict

Similar to the betting, the stats say there is little to separate Cyrname and Clan Des Obeaux. The first-named has a last-time-out win on his side, while his record fits the bill perfectly. Clan Des Obeaux is a back-to-back winner of this race and remains of obvious interest, but the nod goes to Cyrname in a tight finish.

Lostintranslation can not be ruled out, while the stats are firmly against Santini. Real Steel is yet to prove that he is good enough to win this, but has plenty in his favour and is an each-way contender at a bigger price.

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