Who will win the Virtual Grand National based on previous trends?

The Virtual Grand National will be shown on ITV1 at 5pm on Saturday. It aims to resemble the real race using algorithms and a computer simulation and James Stevens has looked at what factors are key to finding the winner.

Winning form

There is a big emphasis on form, with seven of the top four finishers in the past three runnings having won on their previous start. That number includes all three winners of the race.

That top four figure stretches to ten if you include horses who have finished in the placings on their last starts.

In this year's field, nine of the 40 runners are last-time-out winners, including the well-fancied Any Second Now, Burrows Saint, Definitly Red and Kimberlite Candy.

Virtual Grand National history

2019: 1. Rathvinden 2. Tiger Roll 3. Jury Duty 4. Anibale Fly
2018: 1. Tiger Roll 2. Chase The Spud 3. Total Recall 4. Houblon Des Obeaux
2017: 1. Cause Of Causes 2. Pleasant Company 3. Vieux Lion Rouge 4. Vicente

Distance

One of the toughest elements for horses in the Grand National is the distance, and that has proved key in recent runnings. All three winners of the previous virtual Nationals had won over a trip of at least four miles before heading to Aintree.

Only two horses in this year's Virtual Grand National have won over four miles or longer, Tiger Roll and Potters Corner. But Ballyoptic, Elegant Escape, Talkischeap, Burrows Saint and Kimberlite Candy have all won big handicaps over staying distances.

All aspects of the race are aimed to be as realistic as possible

Weight

The average weight of top four finishers in the virtual National works out at 10st 13lb, a weight that Cause Of Causes carried to win the inaugural running in 2017 and Tiger Roll the following year. A number of horses have also run well off 10st 12lb.

Of Saturday's runners carrying similar marks, Total Recall, Magic Of Light and Ballyoptic are interesting.

Other factors

Irish-trained runners have dominated the race in previous years with 2018 runner-up Chase The Spud the only British-trained horse to finish in the top two.

Seven of the 12 top-four finishers were making their debut over the National fences, a further four had only one run previously. So Aintree experience does not appear to be a major factor.

Similar to the real race itself, the simulation tends to favour horses aged between nine and 11. The ideal age, on previous form, is nine, and eight runners fit that profile.

What do the creators of the Virtual National say?

Steve Rogers, chief commercial officer for Virtual Sports at Inspired Entertainment: "Information about the horses is fed into the software, which helps to determine the probability of their potential finishing positions.

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"This probability is based on their past form and performance in other races. Layered on top of this, an element of AI (Artificial Intelligence) is involved in how the horses move around the course, how they jump fences and how they interact with each other.

"Then, as always with the Grand National, there is an element of unpredictability, which makes it so fascinating."

The final verdict

Tiger Roll certainly deserves his place at the top of the betting market. He is sure to run another big race, but the major concern is his handicap weight.

Ballyoptic seems to fit the right profile having won last time out, has run well over four miles and goes off a weight of 10st 11lb, just under the average.

Ballyoptic: selection for the Virtual Grand NationalCredit: Edward Whitaker

Potters Corner has won over a staying trip and comes here off a win so has a leading chance while Classic Chase winner Kimberlite Candy is another danger.

Prediction: 1. Ballyoptic 2. Potters Corner 3. Tiger Roll 4. Kimberlite Candy

Read more on the Virtual Grand National

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Bookmakers pledge profits from virtual Grand National will go to NHS charities

Bookmakers have pledged to donate any profits from betting on the Virtual Grand National to the NHS Charities COVID-19 Urgent Appeal. You can donate to this important cause here