Tom Collins casts his expert eye over an informative novice hurdle

2.30 Perth
British EBF William Hill Gold Castle "National Hunt" Novices' Hurdle (Listed) | 3m | 5yo+ | RTV

This has been won by an Irish, Welsh or southern-trained runner every year since 2011 and powerful connections who are in search of a good-ground 3m novice hurdle have come out in force again.

Paul Nicholls leads the southern raid with Threeunderthrufive, who remains unexposed and was last seen finishing sixth behind Vanillier in the Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival.

That performance alone makes him the one to beat and the six-year-old clearly doesn't mind travelling north of the border as his sole previous Scottish venture ended in a cosy success over Fantastikas, who won his next start, at Musselburgh in February.

His Racing Post Rating has improved with each start except his last, when he was 1lb below his previous success. He's the one to beat if he doesn't feel the effects of Cheltenham but his 3lb penalty will make things harder.

The top-rated runner in the line-up is the Fergal O'Brien-trained Stoner's Choice, who steps up to 3m for the first time. This five-time winner will have to jump better if he is to fend off the strongest competition he has faced since his bumper days.

Ocean Drifter, who clearly didn't appreciate the testing conditions in the EBF Final last time, is a huge threat if bouncing back to form for Oliver Sherwood, while it would be silly to rule out Castle Rushen, who found the brilliant My Drogo too hot last time.
Race analysis by Tom Collins

What they say

Paul Nicholls, trainer of Threeunderthrufive
He didn't run badly in the Albert Bartlett at Cheltenham. These are calmer waters but it's still a good race. As long as the festival hasn't left a mark on him he should run well and the ground will be perfect for him – he doesn't want it too soft.

Nicky Richards, trainer of Castle Rushen
I've thought about this race for a while with him and if it was a Graded contest I'd have still taken my chance. He's progressing and is a typical Mr [Trevor] Hemmings horse. He'll make a super chaser in time and has a great future.

Castle Rushen: aimed at this race for a whileCredit: John Grossick (racingpost.com/photos)

Olly Murphy, trainer of Lord Of Kerak
He's stepping up in trip and is a proper chaser for next year – he's an above-average type. He's got an each-way chance, although he has a bit to find, but the nicer ground will suit him.

Fergal O'Brien, trainer of Stoner's Choice
I hope he's got a good chance. It takes a good horse to win three novices and he's solid. Max [Kendrick] gets on well with him. The ground could dry out a bit more and it would be fine for him. He's got good course form too.
Reporting by James Burn

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