Why 7-4 about Daryz is a rotten price - and the 6-1 shot who can topple the Arc favourite

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It's hard to be consistent in this game. The Front Runner was on an Arc preview panel in a London pub last night and we all agreed the draw for the Arc doesn't matter half so much on a sound surface, which we seem sure to get on Sunday.

Then, just as we wrapped up, the stalls positions were published and we all gathered, agog, round somebody's phone to see them being announced in real time. Daryz in five, ahhhhh. Diamond Necklace in 16, ohhhhhhh nooooooo.

I'd said something about not wanting to overstate the importance of the draw. Minutes later, there was this ridiculous sense of pleasure at seeing Kalpana drawn in six.

• Ryan Moore to ride Benvenuto Cellini in Arc after Diamond Necklace handed nightmare draw, with William Buick on Minnie Hauk 

• How has the Arc draw and Aidan O'Brien's jockey bookings affected the betting? 

Kieren Fallon was also on the panel and Matt Chapman had asked him about whether the draw matters in the Arc. Fallon thought probably not but Chapman pointed out that both of the jockey's Arc winners had been well drawn in six. Moments later, the horse I fancy was drawn in the same stall! Meant to be, or what?

As the IPA starts to ebb out of my system, I see that, in reality, Sunday's Arc probably has not already been arranged by the fates in accordance with a Fallon-related coincidence. Kalpana will still have to be the best horse to win.

Kieren Fallon: won the Arc on Hurricane Run (2005) and Dylan Thomas (2007)

But I think she probably is and the 6-1 available in a few places looks like value to me. Having beaten Calandagan (last year's "best in the world") by a length and a half in the King George, she has little to prove. Who can match the quality of that form?

Not Daryz, whose Arc success was a narrow win over Minnie Hauk, when the two of them got an ideal run around the far bend, tight against the rail. Kalpana, from stall ten, got stuck two horse-widths wide, on ground I think was significantly worse. Nothing that raced out there was able to get involved.

Daryz began to look like a wonder-horse in spring, when he stepped down in distance to win a couple of Group 1s. But there wasn't much depth to the form of those races and the Prince of Wales probably exposed his limitations at 1m2f.

I'm not won over by his trial race, in which he beat a mudlark on fast ground in a slow time. Maybe he'll do what no male has done since the 1970s and win two Arcs but 7-4 is a rotten price, giving no respect to the opposition or the difficulty of the task.

What makes Daryz a champion? Watch our short film about last year's Arc hero as he is prepared for a second tilt at Europe's greatest Flat race. Our cameras have been over to France to film him in his work and to seek insights from those around him, including trainer Francis Graffard, jockey Mickael Barzalona and staff at the Aga Khan Studs who helped raise him from birth.

• Watch Daryz: The Inheritance

• 'It felt like a complete circle, like this perfect moment' - the incredible inside story of the horse born to win an Arc (and maybe two) 

Maltese Cross's form has taken a couple of knocks. He's at risk of getting outpaced on this ground. If he was an Arc winner in the making, why didn't he win the Derby?

Rashly (because I couldn't immediately think of the answer), I asked the audience if there had been an Arc winner who had been beaten in the Derby that same season. Matt immediately named Dancing Brave, which was annoying but did sort of underline my point. Maltese Cross is not Dancing Brave.

Maltese Cross (left) chases home Christmas Day in the DerbyCredit: Alan Crowhurst (Getty Images)

On Monday, I was making a case for three outsiders, two of which have been declared. Pearled Majesty is being saved for Champions Day, which I didn't expect from a horse owned by Criquette Head, a legend of French racing.

But we still have Saddadd and Meisho Tabaru. I said they were over-priced at 33-1 and now, of course, they have both been pushed out to 40s in places.

Saddadd could find another bit of improvement on his second start at a mile and a half. Meisho Tabaru could get the race run to suit.

Unusually, there are no pacemakers in this Arc. Maybe Ballydoyle could sacrifice one of their three to secure a strong pace but none of them would really appeal in that role. It doesn't seem likely.

So Meisho Tabaru might only have Friendly Soul for company at the front of the race in the first half-mile. And Friendly Soul won't want to go a strong pace because they can't be sure of her stamina.

Anyway, that's a couple of each-way plays if you're not in the Daryz fan club. Be lucky and enjoy the weekend.

Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (3.05 Longchamp, Sunday)
Coral: 13-8 Daryz, 5 Maltese Cross, 6 Kalpana, 8 Thundering On, 10 Varandir, 14 Benvenuto Cellini, Diamond Necklace, 20 Minnie Hauk, 25 bar.

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