'She's a serious filly' - in-form Michael Dods holds Group 1 aspirations for star sprinter
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I like to keep half an eye on trainer form and it's not uncommon for a trainer to suddenly have a cluster of winners after a dry spell but I can't remember many gear changes as dramatic as the one Michael Dods has just made. The County Durham trainer went 1/92 over the first four months of the year but is now having one of his best months ever.
May has brought him a dozen winners from 61 runners at a strike-rate of 20 per cent. He's also amassed more than £230,000 in prize money, a figure he has only beaten six times in more than 30 years with a licence. And there's still a week to go before we turn the calendar for June.
While gratified by the turn of events, Dods is not surprised. "There was a lot of horses we couldn't run, because the ground was so bad," he tells the Front Runner. "And they needed a bit of sun on their backs. I'm not saying they all wanted quick ground but they didn't want it basically heavy.
"We knew at the end of March we were going to have a quiet April and I was quite calm and relaxed about that, because I knew they were fit and well, but just not ready. So I fully expected them to kick on, once May came.
"Kick on they have and not just in workaday handicaps. The star of the show has been Azure Blue, the latest flying filly from Dods's Denton yard, who defied odds of 12-1 to land the Duke Of York Stakes during the Dante meeting last week.
The grey was rated just 77 when she won at Hamilton last June, when the Post analyst opined: "She looks capable of rating a good bit higher yet". She had risen to 104 before last week's race and will now go up again.
While Dods has always liked her, it sounds as though he did not necessarily foresee the rapidity of her progress. "We thought we'd step her up in class and she how she coped. She coped better than expected, really.
"Travelled well, all throughout the race, it was pretty smooth. And then she quickened up. "I think we've probably learnt a bit about how to ride her. I remember a day at Ripon, she jumped a bit keen and bowled along, over-raced. Now we make a point of getting her in behind something.
"Last year, she wasn't jumping on terms. Now she's matured, she's breaking well and making life a lot easier for the jockey.
"Does he think there may be more to come from the four-year-old?
"I do, yes. We've had some good fillies over the years, but slightly different. The likes of Mecca's Angel and Que Amoro were just all speed. This filly also stays six furlongs.
"But with age, she's developing more speed. I know we don't take her in the parade ring before the race for long and we send her to the start in a red hood but, for a sprinter, she's got a great attitude and she's matured a lot since the end of last season.
"I think she'll speed up even more and she's a serious filly. I think she'll end up with the speed for five but will get six. She's a big, scopey filly, so there's a lot of improvement there and a lot to look forward to.
"For those who haven't noticed, Dods isn't guessing when it comes to classy sprinting females. As well as Mecca's Angel and Que Amoro, he's also had Mabs Cross, Easton Angel, Intense Romance and Gale Force Maya. That's two Nunthorpes, an Abbaye and a slew of other major prizes, without even mentioning what he's won with boy sprinters like Dakota Gold and Commanche Falls.
So what next for Azure Blue? She's not entered at Royal Ascot and Dods doesn't sound tempted to supplement her.
"I've discussed it with one of the owners. Listen, if it was a wet week, we'd consider it. But we're not that bothered.
"Possibly the next race, ground permitting, could be the July Cup. It wouldn't bother me if we waited six weeks. There's a Group 3 fillies at York at around that time. I would guess it'd be one of those.
"If the ground was right, we'd seriously think about the Nunthorpe-Abbaye route. We'd like to see her over five before, obviously. There's so many options.
"He also has to find options for Commanche Falls, winner of the Stewards' Cup for the past two years, who ran a stormer to be third to his stablemate last week. He is now rated so high that handicaps are out, the trainer says.
On Friday, Gale Force Maya will line up in a Listed contest at Haydock, the Cecil Frail. A dry forecast pleases Dods, as she did not appear to relish rain-softened conditions at the Guineas meeting.
More immediately, Dods was kind enough to give a quick rundown on his entrants for today. "Nelson Gay is a nice sort of sprinter. Hopefully the faster ground will help him.
"Lord Abama didn't quite get seven and I thought Thirsk's six was a bit quick for him. The Carlisle six could suit him, as long as the ground isn't too firm. Being by Profitable, he wouldn't want it too good but hopefully it'll just be nice ground because I know they've put a bit of water on.
"Alethiometer is probably more a seven-furlong horse but I wanted to get started with her."Zuffolo got bogged down at Beverley. Five is better for him."Hills Of Gold is a nice three-year-old but what he'll think of the fast ground, I wouldn't know."
Finally, did you notice? Charly Prichard, who spoke to us on Friday, was among the winners at Auteuil yesterday. She rode 13-2 shot Moujik to win a 16-runner Listed handicap hurdle that followed the Grand Steeple-Chase de Paris and is now three wins from seven rides since returning from injury. Allez Charly!
Monday's picks
I feel like it might be rude, in the circumstances, to not tip one of the Dods runners today and Nelson Gay (2.35) is the one who gets the black spot. His first run for the yard, at Newcastle in March, was fairly promising but he went backwards at Beverley last time, partly because of trouble in running but mainly (I reckon) because he doesn't want cut in the ground.
He'll get a fast surface at Carlisle, if the going description is accurate, and that should make all the difference. The cheekpieces which he wore for two of his three wins are back on for the first time since he joined Dods. He's slipped to a rating a stone below his peak and odds of 7-2 are fine.
Sir Mark Prescott is 3/3 recently and you take your life in your hands opposing a favourite of his when he's in that kind of form. At Windsor tonight, his Brave Knight is the likely favourite as he steps up to 1m3½f for the first time, having been rated on three runs last year, two of which were over just seven fulongs, ha ha ha. He's by Sir Percy out of a Medicean mare, so precocious speed was never on the agenda.
But it's possible that Sir Mark is about to be out-Prescotted by Ralph Beckett, whose Overactive (8.05) has the advantage of having had a run this year, albeit a pretty duff one. He dropped right out at Nottingham on soft ground.
There was much more encouragement to be taken from his two runs at Wolverhampton at the end of last year and, as he comes from the family of a Queen's Vase winner, this big step up in distance should be just as helpful to him as any other runner. Beckett is on 26 per cent for the last fortnight and Overactive is easy to like at 4-1.
Three things to look out for today . . .
1. We might not see the best of her today but Persian Phoenix is an interesting newcomer in Redcar's opener. Charlie Johnston's filly is a half-sister to Kilimanjaro who won the Lingfield Derby Trial in 2015 before midfield finishes at Epsom and the Curragh. Another sibling is Mawaany, who was rated in the 90s. Persian Phoenix is from the first crop of Phoenix Of Spain, a winner of the Acomb and the Irish Guineas. Hopefully she can prove more precocious than Kilimanjaro, who finished last on his debut.
2. Harriet Bethell is on fire, with four winners from her seven runners this month. That takes her record to 6/12 since the start of April, making this easily the most productive period of her time with a licence. She sends the unexposed Original Thinker to Redcar for a fillies' handicap, when the step up to a mile ought to suit, judging by her keeping-on effort over seven furlongs at Newcastle last time. That was her first run for Bethell, having started her career with the Gosdens last year. Bred to be a sprinter, she left Newmarket after a disappointing run in a 6f handicap.
3. With her recent wins in the Leopardstown Derby Trial, the Michael Seely Memorial and the Saval Beg, Jessica Harrington is doing really well with her quality runners just now. She starts another with plenty of potential on paper in a middle-distance maiden at Roscommon. Galileo's Compass is by Galileo out of Lady Lara, a Grade 2 winner in the US, making him a brother to Changingoftheguard, who won the King Edward VII last year and was recently third in the Ormonde. While this debut comes later than ideal, Galileo's Compass holds an Irish Derby entry.
Read these next:
The return of the Derby king: why Desert Crown could light up 2023
What's on this week: Derby gallops morning paves the way for Irish Guineas meeting at the Curragh
The Front Runner is our latest email newsletter available exclusively to Members' Club Ultimate subscribers. Chris Cook, a four-time Racing Reporter of the Year award winner, provides his take on the day's biggest stories and tips for the upcoming racing every morning from Monday to Friday. Not a Members' Club Ultimate subscriber? Click here to join today and also receive our Ultimate Daily emails plus our full range of fantastic website and newspaper content
Published on 22 May 2023inThe Front Runner
Last updated 10:22, 22 May 2023
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