Play or lay? Nine handicap favourites at the Cheltenham Festival analysed

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We've all been picking over this week's top-class races for ages and have now reached the stage where we know the runners better than our families. It's time to get involved in some of the Cheltenham Festival's famously tricky handicaps, if only for variety's sake.

These races take a lot of picking apart but the favourite is a good place to start because their charisma or lack thereof plays a big part in shaping the betting market. Before I'm prepared to take on a hot favourite, I like to have a clear idea about why he might be vulnerable. If you can't come up with a convincing reason, maybe that's because there isn't one and you should be sticking with him.

Anyway, here's my thoughts on the horses who head the handicap markets. It'll either give you something to think about now or a right good laugh on Friday night.

You'll spot some common themes. We're mostly dealing with unexposed youngsters trained in Ireland. Incredibly, six of them carry the famous green and gold hoops of JP McManus.

Corach Rambler (7-1)

Ultima Handicap Chase (2.50 Cheltenham, Tuesday, March 14)

There's been no Irish winner since 2006 though I can't help thinking this is a stat on borrowed time. Every time I hear a British voice say the Irish don't win this race, I'm reminded of that US general whose last words were: "They couldn't hit an elephant at that distance."

Corach Rambler is a lovely horse and of course everyone remembers him winning last year's race in dramatic style with a charge among many others from the final bend. Anyone who runs a 'ride of the year' award has had Derek Fox on their shortlist.

But if Corach needed one of the best rides of the year to win it 12 months ago, won't he need an even better ride off a 6lb higher rating? Everything has to go right for a hold-up horse in a big field and these odds don't leave much room for error.

Plus, he's a Grand National horse this time. It's almost four months since he ran and this race might be needed to put an edge on him for April. If I'm backing a festival favourite, I'd like to know that connections have no other targets in mind.

Lucinda Russell's yard had five winners in a row last week but Corach Rambler has to be a lay at single-figures.

Corach Rambler14:50 Cheltenham

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Jky: Derek Fox Tnr: Lucinda Russell

Tekao (9-2)

Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (4.50 Cheltenham, Tuesday, March 14)

Any layer worth their salt wants to take on the Fred Winter favourite because there's so little form to go on and basically everything is unexposed. The obvious one gets shorter and shorter as punters pile on but there's often at least one fly in the Guinness, as can be seen from winning SPs of 80-1, 33-1, 33-1, 33-1 and 25-1 in the last ten years.

Tekao was last off the bridle in the Grade 1 for juvenile hurdlers at the Dublin Racing Festival, so he must be mighty talented. In the end, he was only beaten by two more fancied stablemates who were both getting the fillies' allowance and they will both go to the Triumph this week with obvious chances.

But the handicapper has been able to take that form into account and it doesn't look to me as though Tekao has got in lightly. His finishing effort will need to be a lot stronger here. Of course he's a lay at 9-2 and I'll have fun rummaging among those at double-figures.

Tekao16:50 Cheltenham

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Jky: Mark Walsh Tnr: W P Mullins

Camprond (7-1)

Coral Cup (2.50 Cheltenham, Wednesday, March 15)

He might not be favourite by the time you read this because he's been drifting back a bit since halving in price from 11-1 at the start of the month. Maybe he suddenly showed something at home or maybe somebody on the preview circuit gave him a big word.

People are happy to imagine this has been the plan for ages because he carries the silks of JP McManus (as does Tekao) and has basically no form since the big festivals of last spring, when he was fourth in this and then won at Punchestown. And, oh look, he's almost come down to the rating he had for that win, down 9lb since January.

But his jumping isn't the best and looked really ragged at Musselburgh last time. Perhaps he didn't like having the hood back on or perhaps two miles is way too sharp for him these days.

Would he be this short if he was owned by anyone else? The recent rain is against him, on top of everything else, so 7-1 is a bad price in a hot race.

Camprond14:50 Cheltenham

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Jky: Aidan Coleman Tnr: Philip Hobbs

Camprond: features prominently in the Coral Cup bettingCredit: Patrick McCann (racingpost.com/photos)

Dinoblue (7-1)

Johnny Henderson Grand Annual (4.50 Cheltenham, Wednesday, March 15)

So apparently lots of us fancy another one of JP's. I wonder if the Mares Chase was the plan for Dinoblue because, after she was beaten fair and square by Impervious, JP bought the winner, who is now second-favourite for the Mares Chase.

We love a novice in the Grand Annual but does Dinoblue have many secrets from the assessor? I'd need some convincing of that.

Her jumping under pressure is also something to worry about, judging by the last two fences at Naas. A step up in trip could suit her at some point. I'm taking her on here.

Thanksforthehelp14:10 Cheltenham

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Jky: Tnr: David Pipe

Thanksforthehelp (11-2)

Pertemps Final (2.10 Cheltenham, Thursday, March 16)

Of all the festival favourites, Shoot First was the one I found most convincing, so of course he's dropped out due to a setback in training, revealed on Sunday morning. His spot is inherited by the McManus-owned Thanksforthehelp, who showed huge improvement to win the Chepstow qualifier at a canter last month.

From the David Pipe yard, he was evidently thought to be well treated as he made his handicap debut last spring at the Punchestown Festival, no less, and was sent off favourite. He travelled to the front around the final bend like a big, grey god but ran out of puff on the run-in.

The two who beat him were proved by subsequent events to be very well treated that day. Thanksforthehelp was only five and is probably a stronger horse now. An 11lb rise for what he did at Chepstow looks conservative and he will surely work his way further up the ratings in time.

But this stern test comes less than three weeks after Chepstow and, while that was an easy win, it was a huge personal best which must have taken something out of him. I think he'll probably shorten some more as people digest the news about Shoot First and consider his credentials but the forecast rain is a potential problem and I'll be opposing him.

Thanksforthehelp14:10 Cheltenham

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Jky: Tnr: David Pipe

So Scottish (7-2)

Magners Plate Handicap Chase (4.10 Cheltenham, Thursday, March 16)

I think of this race as a bookie's benefit and not just because of Mister McGoldrick (66-1). Within the last ten years, there's also been Carrickboy (50-1), Darna (33-1) and Coole Cody (22-1) last year. But four of the last five winners have been 5-1 or shorter, including a couple of Irish-trained favourites.

One of those was The Shunter, from the up-and-coming yard of Emmet Mullins, who now sends So Scottish. He continues the theme of festival handicap favourites carrying the silks of JP McManus, who has bought this six-year-old since his last run in November.

So Scottish has made rapid progress this term since being beaten in a maiden hurdle in August, when he was rated 105. Four runs later he was on 135 and running second to Boothill in a valuable handicap chase at Ascot.

He ought to be able to do better again, now that four more months have passed. The step up in distance from Ascot will help.

But soft ground would be a new test and might take an additional toll on his jumping, which needs to be sharper than at Ascot. He lacks experience over fences and hasn't faced more than six rivals in that sphere. Surely 7-2 is crazily short about a horse with something still to prove?

So Scottish16:10 Cheltenham

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Jky: Tnr: Emmet Mullins

So Scottish: last seen chasing home Boothill at Ascot in NovemberCredit: Patrick McCann (racingpost.com/photos)

Stumptown (4-1)

Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir (5.30 Cheltenham, Thursday, March 16)

A Limerick maiden hurdle was the extent of Stumptown's achievements before the start of this season but he comes here after winning back-to-back handicap chases off marks of 112 (Thurles) and 125 (Sandown).

He had plenty in hand at Sandown and connections knew it. They sent him over that day with the aim of winning to get his rating up a bit, thereby improving his chance of making the cut for this.

There's a proper engine in there and he has lots more to offer. But he's a novice and the fences can be tricky for him. He was asked for a big leap a couple of times at Sandown, took an extra stride and bashed his way through. In a big field at Cheltenham, that could be more expensive.

I'd rather not get on the wrong side of such a promising improver but there's no way to spin 4-1 as a value price; he's a lay if you can face the risk that he'll be the obvious winner from half a mile out. I'll be looking for an each-way alternative. This race has produced two winners at 40-1 in the past six years.

Stumptown17:30 Cheltenham

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Jky: Tnr: Gavin Cromwell

Filey Bay (5-1)

McCoy Contractors County Hurdle (2.10 Cheltenham, Friday, March 17)

Willie Mullins has become the leading trainer in this race with six wins, including two well-supported favourites in the last three years. But it's his nephew Emmet who's expected to carry off the prize this time, with the McManus-owned Filey Bay.

What a huge run this one delivered in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury last month. It's hard to believe he didn't win, considering he cruised powerfully into contention and finished very strongly to be 11 lengths clear of the third. But he never quite reeled in the horse who'd led from the start and was helped by a sound surface, Aucunrisque.

'Hold up and creep forward' are tactics that traditionally play well in this race. Filey Bay is 8lb higher than at Newbury and faces some solid rivals. But he looks the right favourite and the remaining 5-1 is perfectly fair about such a strong contender.

Filey Bay14:10 Cheltenham

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Jky: Tnr: Emmet Mullins

Spanish Harlem (5-1)

Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle (5.30 Cheltenham, Friday, March 17)

There's only been one winning favourite in the history of the Martin Pipe (est. 2009), Sir Des Champs coming from ninth place at the home turn to score under Emmet Mullins a dozen years ago. It's hard to believe from the perspective of now but Galopin Des Champs was allowed to start at 8-1 a couple of years ago.

On the face of it, Spanish Harlem has a similar profile to the one Galopin had then, as he has also failed to score in three starts since joining Willie Mullins from France. On the other hand, Galopin had run very respectably in Grade 1 company.

Spanish Harlem's form achievements fall well short of what his stablemate had done by this time. His jumping has lacked fluency at times and he found disappointingly little when asked to reel in the leader at Thurles last time, a race for which he started at 8-11.

He'll have more to offer in time but 5-1 looks a terrible price for such a horse in a competitive affair, with the added unpredictable element of inexperienced jockeys.

Spanish Harlem17:30 Cheltenham

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Jky: Tnr: W P Mullins

Monday's picks

The eve of the Cheltenham Festival is not the absolute best time to be giving another chance to one of your cliff horses but at 5-1 Secret Secret (2.15) is a backable price for the first time since he joined Neil Mulholland. You might remember him as a dramatic winner at Navan in October, when he finished strongly from a mile back, but his latest two hurdling efforts have been disconcerting.

He seemed not to stay three miles at Wetherby over Christmas but looked blatantly outpaced at Catterick a month ago when dropped back half a mile. Taking into account that the yard was quiet through December, I reckon today's step back up in trip at Taunton will suit and we might finally see proof that he is well handicapped in this sphere. Sam Twiston-Davies takes over in the saddle.

Later on the same card, Doyannie (4.35) is very reasonably priced at 7-4, having improved for each run since joining Anthony Honeyball this season. She was an easy winner at Plumpton last month and a 9lb rise does not look too much for her to handle in another Class 5 contest, with the yard still going strong.

Our Monday man bids to boost your Cheltenham bank with five jumps fancies 

Three things to look out for today . . .

1. Lilly Pinchin's comeback plan has had a couple of delays, owing to the abandonment of Hereford on Saturday and then her intended mount on Sunday becoming a non-runner. So this season's leading female jockey goes to Stratford today for her first rides since breaking a wrist and a collar bone in a fall at the end of January. Her aim is to be as fit and sharp as possible for the mount on Hector Javilex in Thursday's Pertemps Final. The main test today will be on Extraordinary Man, who made a fair chasing debut last month and now has a winnable opportunity in a handicap over the larger obstacles. Then there's the unraced Freddie's Song in the bumper. Both rides are supplied by trainer David Bridgwater and owner Simon Hunt of The Giant Bolster fame.

2. Stratford on the Monday of festival week really ought to feature an enigmatic and well-supported raider from across the Irish Sea, so it's good to see Gerald Quinn has sent over a couple from Ballymena. Quinn, who has an excellent 23 strike-rate with his runners in Britain (3/13), has the unraced J'Adore Chas in a juvenile hurdle. By Racing Post Trophy winner Elm Park, he has three siblings who won over obstacles in France. Later, Quinn has Ballee in the bumper; a horse with a few bumper winners in his family, he showed promise on his recent debut at Punchestown. Quinn could have his first festival runner this week with Invictus World in the Champion Bumper.

3.  There's a former Derby contender making his hurdles debut in a maiden contest at Thurles. Humanitarian finished ahead of Bangkok on his very first outing at Newmarket in 2018, when trained by John Gosden. After a couple of novice wins, he was a 33-1 shot in Anthony Van Dyck's Derby, running on into seventh place, one behind Circus Maximus. But things haven't gone his way since and he even slipped up at Chester last spring. In November, he unseated his jockey coming out of the stalls; there can't have been many Flat runners who got rid of the rider twice in a year. Having dropped to a mark in the 70s, he was sold at auction last month and is now with Shark Hanlon. Good luck to him in this new sphere, which is not really suggested by his breeding. His sire, Noble Mission, has had just two hurdle winners so far. 

Read these next:

What's on this week at the Cheltenham Festival 

Previews and tips for all 28 races at the Cheltenham Festival 

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The Front Runner is our latest email newsletter available exclusively to Members' Club Ultimate subscribers. Chris Cook, a four-time Racing Reporter of the Year award winner, provides his take on the day's biggest stories and tips for the upcoming racing every morning from Monday to Friday. Not a Members' Club Ultimate subscriber? Click here to join today and also receive our Ultimate Daily emails plus our full range of fantastic website and newspaper content.