Paul Townend delivers one of the coolest winning rides in Grand National history, but is the great race becoming predictable?

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It's a tough game, tipping, and you have to hold onto your occasional successes like Kate Winslet clinging to a floating door in the North Atlantic. This time last year, the Front Runner was headlined: 'How to ride the winner of the new-style Grand National' and went on at great length about the importance of patience.

I remember lots of Nationals from the 80s and 90s where the winner was already in front at the third-last. If they weren't in front, they'd be part of a small leading group.

We've now had three Nationals with just 34 runners and the difference is stark. All three winners were still snuggled away in the pack over the third-last fence, waiting to pounce.

On Saturday, I Am Maximus benefited from the most extreme example of patient tactics in recent times. Where was he at the third-last fence? In 12th place, that's where, with just six others still going behind him.

I'm not saying he was hard to spot. He was travelling really nicely. Paul Townend was biding his time. If you'd backed them, I think you'd have been hugging yourself.

I Am Maximus: reeled in Jordans

At the same stage in the previous two Nationals, the eventual winner had been ninth both times - that's Nick Rockett last year and I Am Maximus in 2024. I went all the way back to 1982 and could find only one other National winner who was further back than they were, which was One For Arthur, sitting chilly in 11th place over the third-last in 2017.

I Am Maximus was one place further back than that on Saturday. It was the coolest winning ride in recent Grand National history. Maybe it was the coolest ever. I'm not volunteering to check the Pathe footage back to 1920, that's a job for a youthful enthusiast.

Eventually, we'll see a National where the one in front will just keep going. But I think patience is going to be key in most years, now that we have more runners still in the argument at the home turn than used to be the norm.

In the Nationals I remember from 40 years ago, there would usually be four or five in contention on the long run back from Valentine's. These days, you might see half the field with some sort of chance, even after 25 obstacles.

It means a strong pace being sustained for longer by a competitive pack. So the greatest pitfall is to make too early a move and run out of puff.

Ben Jones is probably not a regular Front Runner reader, judging by Saturday's race. His mount, Jordans, pretty obviously went for home too soon and now we're all left wondering what would have happened if Jones had insisted on the same tactics as Townend.

I have a lot of sympathy. It was a fine, level-headed ride as far as the second Canal Turn, after which the horse's enthusiasm seemed to take over. "I didn't want to disappoint him," Jones told Racing TV. 

Fighting Jordans for control might not have led to the rosier outcome we all imagine. Still, there was a kind of madness to it when they kicked clear around the final bend. Having seen that, I guess a lot of jockeys will now be more inclined to patience in the late stages of future Grand Nationals.

Jordans and Ben Jones: kicked for home early

From a punter's perspective, the tricky thing is working out who will employ the restrained tactics which now appear to be necessary, or at least beneficial. Not all jockeys will feel so inclined. Not all horses will be suited by having to wait. 

But one thing we could definitely have guessed on Saturday morning is that Townend would play it late on I Am Maximus, those tactics having worked so well for them in the previous two years. For most of the other runners, you'd only be guessing what they would get up to. But he was clearly going to be ridden in the way that seems to suit the race now.

That being so, having a few quid on before the price collapsed would have been sensible.

I didn't, of course. Maybe I should read my own articles.

Is the National becoming predictable?

We've now had three winning favourites in four years, the first time that's happened since 1894, back in the days when there might only be 14 or 15 runners.

Of course, it wasn't clear that I Am Maximus was going to start favourite until a late plunge, possibly set off by a £100,000 bet by his owner. Earlier, Panic Attack and Jagwar had both shortened past him.

Some themes are becoming pretty well established. Willie Mullins has trained the winner three years in a row.

Class came to the fore again. Since the field size was reduced, all three winners have carried at least 11st 6lb, the first time we've had a run like that since Battleship won in 1938, following Royal Mail and Reynoldstown.

Willie Mullins, Paul Townend and JP McManus are Grand National winners againCredit: Paul Ellis (AFP via Getty)

The first two horses both carried more than 11st - again, that's happened for the last three years and seems noteworthy, bearing in mind how many lean years such horses endured in previous decades. There are more of them now, as a proportion of the whole, but they're still in the minority.

Irish-trained horses have now won eight Nationals out of ten. Only Lucinda Russell has broken that run. By the time of the next National, it will be a dozen years since the most recent English-based winner.

Still, Iroko and Johnnywho both showed up well for British stables. Iroko became the first English-trained runner to make the first three since Saint Are in 2017. That was also the last time there was more than one Brit in the first four.

Who foresaw these fallers?

Alongside some seemingly predictable aspects, there was also chaos in this National. We saw seven fallers and seven unseated riders, and a lot of the spills came early, setting the tone.

Runners exited the race at each of the first three fences, and also at Becher's and the Foinavon fence. It was like going back in time and hard to reconcile with what we'd seen in the previous two years.

In 2024, there had been no fallers in the entire race, and just one UR until the field reached the Chair. Last year, there was one faller and one UR over the first 20 fences.

Saturday's increased drama was all the odder because the field spread out nicely across the width of the track on that first run to Becher's. In terms of pace, they did not seem to go mad on the run to the first. Everything seemed set fair for a lot of clear rounds.

The calm before the storm: jockeys pose for a picture ahead of the Grand NationalCredit: John Grossick (racingpost.com/photos)

Of course, there's always an increased risk of incident in a big field. But consider who was affected; none of the seven fallers had ever fallen before.

They included the fancied Panic Attack and the classy Gerri Colombe, both gone in the first seven fences. Grangeclare West, third last year, unseated at the first.

I don't see how any of those could have been foreseen, except as part of the Aintree randomness which had seemed a thing of the past. I had missed it but on Saturday I backed three horses who ended up with empty saddles, making it hard to welcome this return to past times.

Is this how future Nationals are going to be? Or was it an aberration? I tend to think the latter. 

Mind you, I ought to have foreseen that Jagwar would unseat. Talented but with something of the klutz about him, he reminds me of Idle Talk, who once unseated four times in a row.

Anyway, do please share your Grand National thoughts with me via frontrunner@racingpost.com and hopefully you all made more money than I did. 

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