Before affordability checks ruin everything, let's try this 40-1 shot in the Arc

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During a meeting last week involving several Racing Posters, a colleague told me that I was known for liking a bet. This is a great reputation to have and I've been feeling constantly pleased about it.

Amongst normal people, of course, this is the reputation we all have. If you have anything to do with a bookie on any day other than Grand National day, then you'll be known in your social circle as 'The Gambler'.

It hadn't really occurred to me that I might also stand out among the staff of horse racing's daily newspaper. If we worked out a league table of monthly betting turnover, I'm pretty sure some other writers would leave me lagging. Maybe that's not quite the same thing as being known for getting involved on a regular basis.

Anyway, chuffed as I am, I'd be grateful if this insight could remain between ourselves. Specifically, don't be sharing it with the Gambling Commission or any bookies, lest it somehow hasten the evil day when somebody beats me over the head with an affordability check.

This is becoming ever more of a concern. On Thursday, the Gambling Commission's board may approve the formal introduction of affordability checks, despite all the evidence pointing to this being a terrible idea. The betting industry believes checks will be applied to 20 per cent of punters whose annual spend is £200 or more, which suggests it's just a matter of time before every regular punter gets checked.

It's very worrying because I'm not going to co-operate with any such check. Betting has been a source of intrigue and entertainment in my life for 35 years, without once getting me into trouble. I don't recognise anyone else's right to dig around in my finances for evidence about whether I can afford it. 

Legacy Link: a filly fit for the Arc?Credit: Edward Whitaker (racingpost.com/photos)

I guess this means that any request for information from a bookmaker will mean the end of me betting with them. Conceivably, a person could run out of bookies in short order and be left trying to get on in shops, like the old days. Whatever happens, I won't be going near the black market.

If you were asked to imagine a conspiracy to kill off horse racing, it might look something like the imposition of strict, low-level affordability checks on betting. I'm sitting here, worrying about whether the day will come when I'm just not allowed to back my fancy in some cherished race I've been watching since the 80s.

In a particularly low moment, it crossed my mind to consider having a go at the races for which ante-post betting is available for the rest of the year, so I could be sure of some involvement from now till Christmas, regardless of what checks may befall me.

Aside from being a pretty sure way to lock in a long-term loss, this would, of course, constitute a departure from my long-established pattern of betting and therefore put me at sudden risk of an affordability check. There must be no bingeing. Still, how interesting that the Gambling Commission nearly prompted me to make a radical increase in my betting activity.

Anyway, there's certainly room for a single long-range bet, that being a habit I often indulge, just to test my aim. I was quite impressed by Legacy Link winning the Musidora at York last week, you see, when she responded so willingly to a sustained challenge on her first start since October.

There's only limited joy to be had in taking 4-1 for the Oaks. What's interesting to me is 40-1 for the Arc (or bigger with a couple of firms). 

Daryz: edged Minnie Hauk in last year's thrilling ArcCredit: Anna Kurth (Getty Images)

This is a filly with so much more to offer as she gains experience and steps up to 1m4f. Older horses have taken over the Arc in recent seasons but three-year-old fillies get useful weight allowances and one of them was only beaten a head last year. John Gosden has won the race with a couple of three-year-olds since 2015.

Yes, I do remember how draw-affected the last Arc looked. Yes, I do remember asking you to dissuade me from long-range punts on the Longchamp race in future. Even if her whole season goes swimmingly, stall 15 would probably kill her chance. A pro punter would guffaw at the idea of such a bet.

But we're still allowed to have bets for the entertainment value and there might be four months of anticipation in this one. In late October, if anyone asks how I can afford my proposed bet on the Charlie Hall, I shall tell them: "Because I got 40-1 about Legacy Link..."  

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