How to ride the winner of the new-style Grand National - Patrick Mullins and Nick Rockett prove patience now pays off

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So now we've had two Grand Nationals since the field-size limit was reduced to 34. Last year's race looked markedly different from the race we were used to, while Saturday's version contained more in the way of midrace incident.

But I think I've spotted one way in which both differed from previous Nationals. Last year, I Am Maximus jumped the third-last fence in a restrained ninth place, hard to spot behind a bunched pack. On Saturday, Nick Rockett was also in ninth over the third-last, cruising along as various rivals did each other in ahead of him.

Why is that remarkable? Because in the previous 40 Nationals, just one winner had been that far back in the field at that stage. Full marks if you named One For Arthur, who was only 11th as he cleared the third-last, the most relaxed ride a National winner has been given in recent times.

From Grittar in 1982 to Corach Rambler in 2023, no other National winner was further back than sixth over the third-last. Most of them were already prominent and clearly fighting it out, even though there was a long way to go.

On Tuesday Racing Post+ subscribers can read Grand National-winning jockey Patrick Mullins' reflections on an emotional victory at Aintree — sign up here so you don't miss it.

No fewer than 15 of those 40 winners led over the third-last. Back in the 80s and 90s, that was the right place to be; whichever horse was in front at that stage went on to win more than half the time. 

Sometimes, like Rhyme 'N' Reason, they would give up the lead after that point, only to wrestle it back. More often, like Grittar or Little Polveir or Mr Frisk or Royal Athlete, they would just keep on chugging remorselessly.

It happened so often in those days, I wonder that more wasn't made of it. "Papillon clears the third-last in front, which means he's probably going to win, and over to Peter O'Sullevan..."

Ruby Walsh knew the score. He had both of his National winners in front over the third-last.

But that approach seemed to go out of fashion after Hedgehunter's year in 2005. Since then, only Ballabriggs and Many Clouds have led over the third-last and gone on to victory. 

I Am Maximus: last year's winner had to settle for secondCredit: John Grossick (racingpost.com/photos)

We've now had nine consecutive Nationals where the winner has been waiting to pounce at that point, rather than playing 'catch me if you can'. It's the longest such run since the 60s, at least.

An obvious reason for the change is that far more horses are in contention at a late stage these days. In my first National, the race had boiled down to Greasepaint or Hallo Dandy by the third-last. Four years later, there were only three who had a realistic chance of getting to Rhyme 'N' Reason.

In an old-school National, there would have been fallers and unseated riders and some of the hold-up horses would have run into trouble. Maybe four or five would still have a chance after Valentine's.

Clearly, that's not going to be the way of it in years to come. On Saturday, more than half the field were giving their backers some kind of hope after 25 fences.

The new style National will tend to put a greater emphasis on stamina. Having more horses involved for longer should mean a strong pace is sustained. 

Hence the reward for the restraint shown by Patrick Mullins on Saturday, and by Paul Townend last year. The plots of these Nationals didn't develop until a much later stage than the ones I remember from the 80s.

Grangeclare West completed the 1-2-3 for Willie MullinsCredit: John Grossick (racingpost.com/photos)

Look at what happened to the group of seven that led the field back towards the grandstands. In front were Celebre D'Allen, who tired rapidly from the second-last and was pulled up, and Beauport, eventually 12th.

Grangeclare West (who finished third) and Minella Cocooner (seventh) were right behind, tracked by Senior Chief (fifth), Bravemansgame (15th) and Hewick (eighth). In other words, only one of that leading group made it into the places. Back in the 80s and 90s, that leading group would have fought out the finish.

This is what makes me think that Grangeclare West got drawn into the heat of the argument two or three fences earlier than ideal. While he was being urged to go after the leaders, the two who would eventually beat him were further back and being allowed to creep into it.

If I'm right, how does this help us as punters in the future? I'd say we're looking for stamina-laden runners whose jockeys will protect them from the heat of battle for as long as possible. But, even more than in the past, we're going to have to trust that the jockey concerned will deliver the right ride.

It's also interesting that the smaller-field National has so far favoured the class horses. Those set to carry less than 11 stone used to make up the majority of winners but Iroko (fourth) has been the only horse carrying less than 11st 4lb to get placed in the last two runnings.

The runners set off in the 2025 Grand NationalCredit: Edward Whitaker (racingpost.com/photos)

Finally, did you notice the historic coincidence on Saturday? Duffle Coat (who unseated his rider at the third) was the first to exit the race, an echo of the 1977 National, in which another horse called Duffle Coat led to the first fence and immediately fell.

Kudos to Scott Burton, a regular Front Runner, for spotting this. He notes that Bob Davies, rider of the 1977 Duffle Coat, came back the next year and won on Lucius. 

Seems like a pretty good omen for Danny Gilligan! Can someone please remind me of this when he wins it next year?

Read these next:

Scottish Grand National with huge trainers' title implications and the Classic scene heats up at Newbury 

'I was still in last night's clothes on the way home' - how Patrick Mullins celebrated Grand National victory 

'It's a different race now but one we certainly feel is growing' - Aintree boss thrilled with Grand National as crowds rise 

The Front Runner is our unmissable email newsletter available exclusively to Racing Post+ subscribers. Chris Cook provides his take on the day's biggest stories and tips for the upcoming racing every morning from Monday to Friday. Not a Racing Post+ subscriber? Join today and also receive our Ultimate Daily emails plus our full range of fantastic website and newspaper content.