Frankie Dettori in limbo as Baffert's troubled past haunts his Classic dominance

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Plenty has been made of the dominant position trainer Willie Mullins holds in jump racing at the moment, with a seemingly endless supply of talent coming out of his yard each season.

This has led to the trainer, along with Gordon Elliott, having close to a stranglehold on many of the top races, particularly those run in Ireland, with Saturday’s Grade 1 Spring Juvenile Hurdle an example of this when Mullins saddled six of the eight horses (and the first three home, led by Gala Marceau).

Quite understandably this is not necessarily seen as a healthy position for the sport to be in, but it is not a worry unique to Irish jump racing, as was highlighted at Santa Anita this weekend when all four runners for a Kentucky Derby qualifying race were trained by Bob Baffert.

The Grade 3 Robert B Lewis Stakes is often won by Baffert, this year’s victory being his 11th in total and fifth in a row. Despite being assured of victory, Baffert found himself on edge prior to the gates opening, telling reporters: “I was actually nervous before the race, worried that something weird might happen, but I can relax now.”

However, Baffert’s total control of this edition of the Robert B Lewis was all the more intriguing given the trainer’s ongoing legal battles and the identity of the winning jockey.

We will start with the latter individual, a certain Frankie Dettori, who continues to enjoy a good level of success in California at the start of his final year in the saddle before retirement.

Dettori guided Newgate to victory in the Robert B Lewis, the even-money favourite having a neck to spare over stablemate Hard To Figure and looking comfortable in doing so.

The victory earned Newgate a quote of 16-1 for the Kentucky Derby, a race Dettori has not won during his storied career. This year, of course, will be his last chance to potentially do so.

The Run for the Roses takes place on May 6, the same day as the Qipco 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket in which Dettori is due to ride 8-1 third favourite Chaldean, so Newgate would still have some way to go to tempt the rider to choose Kentucky over Suffolk in three months’ time.

Chaldean (right): Dewhurst winner is 8-1 third-favourite for the 2,000 GuineasCredit: Edward Whitaker

There are other reasons why Chaldean may get the nod over Newgate that trace back to another of Baffert’s former Robert B Lewis winners, Medina Spirit.

A $1,000 yearling, Medina Spirit went on to land the 2021 Kentucky Derby for Baffert and owner Amr Zedan before then being stripped of that success when his post-race sample contained traces of the banned raceday substance betamethasone. Sadly, Medina Spirit died suddenly during training later the same year.

Racing authorities in the US took strong action against Baffert, including Churchill Downs Inc, which banned the trainer from having runners at its courses for two years, meaning the Kentucky Derby was off limits to Baffert and any horses in his care.

Unlike the European Classics, potential runners in the Kentucky Derby have to earn points to guarantee themselves a place in America’s most prestigious race, which is done by competing in nominated qualifying contests. Different races have different numbers of points available.

Yet none of Baffert’s runners in the Robert B Lewis, which usually provides the winner with 20 qualifying points, were able to earn anything due to being in his care on Saturday.

Naturally, this presents a challenge for Baffert, his owners and, in the case of Newgate, for Dettori, as those involved have to weigh up whether any legal challenges against the ban from Churchill will succeed and, if so, they will do so in time for the horses to earn points or whether the decision should be taken to move the horses to other yards and away from the joint-most successful trainer in the history of the Kentucky Derby.

Last week, Baffert, who also trains ante-post Kentucky Derby favourite Arabian Knight, testified at a hearing aimed at gaining an injunction against his ban, telling a judge that “I’ll probably lose another half” of his leading three-year-olds if he is unable to run in May’s Classic.

On the other side of the argument was Mike Anderson, president of Churchill Downs, who said Baffert showed a “lack of respect for the rules and regulations”, as highlighted by his other infringements for banned raceday medication aside from Medina Spirit and by his media campaign after Medina Spirit’s positive test claiming he was a victim of “cancel culture”.

So Baffert's past may end up undermining his position of dominance and has left Dettori in a Classic limbo.

Today's picks

You would suspect there are plenty of things occupying the mind of champion jumps trainer Paul Nicholls at the moment, not least next month’s Cheltenham Festival, but I would imagine he will still be making time to watch the 5f handicap (6.30) at Wolverhampton.

That is because Nicholls is one of the owners in Paddy’s Day, who provided him with an outing at Royal Ascot last year when the then two-year-old contested the Coventry Stakes.

Paddy’s Day had earned a shot at the Group 2 having won on his debut, but he has not really kicked on from that initial success and ended last season with a close enough third in a 6f nursery.

However, there is cause for thinking that this race at Wolverhampton can provide Paddy’s Day with an opportunity to get his head back in front, provided the 5f trip is not too short for him.

For a start, Paddy’s Day has dropped 11lb in the handicap since making his nursery debut last summer and is taking in a field of solid, rather than spectacular, rivals.

He is drawn well, has shown speed in his races and is representing a yard in excellent form, with Charlie Hills operating at a 50 per cent strike-rate over the last two weeks. Indeed, he saddled seven winners at a 39 per cent strike-rate in January, so the stable is motoring along.

At Carlisle, I think the closing bumper (4.45) is potentially quite an interesting race and I find myself being drawn towards Bullets Hill.

A winner of a bumper at Chepstow in October, Bullets Hill stayed on well to get back up and win the prize, which gives optimism for this race as the stiff finish at Carlisle should be in his favour.

Trainer Ella Pickard has had three winners from just 11 runners this season, and the fact Bullets Hill has remained in bumpers rather than going over hurdles is eyecatching as well.

Three things to look out for today . . .

1.  Newmarket trainer Terry Kent enjoyed a double at Lingfield the last time he sent out runners, with Super Den one of the two horses to get his head in front 16 days ago. Super Den has been in good form over the winter, with two wins and two places from four starts, and goes for a third success in the 1m½f handicap (7.00) at Wolverhampton. As for Kent, he enjoyed his best season to date as a trainer in 2022 with six winners, and could get himself halfway to matching that tally within just a few weeks of 2023 if Super Den can get the job done once again.

2.  We have a rare sight at Wolverhampton this evening when a six-year-old makes his debut. Trained by Dave Loughnane, Shoot To The Stars lines up in the 1m1½f novice stakes (8.00) having never previously set foot on a racecourse under any code and will be carrying the colours of his owner-breeder Dianna Crewe. Shoot To The Stars will be giving away experience as well as age to his rivals, with each of them having made it to the racecourse at least once. They include Glen Buck, a winner on his debut at Newcastle last month for trainer Roger Varian and owner Craig Bennett.

3.  Bullets Hill bids for a second bumper success in the 2m1f (4.45) contest at Carlisle today, with connections prepared to engage in a round trip of nearly 750 miles to take in this particular race. Trained by Ella Pickard in Devon for the 1st Choice Racing Club, Bullets Hill upset the odds when winning a bumper at Chepstow in October in good style but has not been seen on track since. The race is a qualifier for the Racing Post Go North Series, with the finals for each category being run at Carlisle, Kelso and Musselburgh at the end of next month. While he did not contest the Go North Jodami Series Final, Maximilian, winner of today’s bumper last year, was successful in the Grade 2 River Don Novices’ Hurdle at Doncaster.

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The Front Runner is our latest email newsletter available exclusively to Members' Club Ultimate subscribers. Chris Cook, a four-time Racing Reporter of the Year award winner, provides his take on the day's biggest stories and tips for the upcoming racing every morning from Monday to Friday. Not a Members' Club Ultimate subscriber? Click here to join today and also receive our Ultimate Daily emails plus our full range of fantastic website and newspaper content