Favourite backers beware! Here are the 14 odds-on losers at the Cheltenham Festival since 2020
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Odds-on shots are an increasing part of the landscape at the modern Cheltenham Festival and we're expecting six or seven next week. Can we trust the market when it gets so excited about these horses?
Since 2015, there have been 46 odds-on shots at the festival, of which 25 have won. That's a strike-rate of 54 per cent, barely better than a coin flip, suggesting that punters have allowed themselves to get carried away in some cases.
Willie Mullins has been responsible for the lion's share of these hotpots, saddling 29 of them, of which 17 won (59 per cent). Nicky Henderson has a better strike-rate, winning with five of the six odds-on shots he's had in the past decade.
I decided to have a closer look at some of the odds-on losers, in case any common themes should appear. Below is my list of the 14 humbled hotpots at the festival since 2020.
Four of them were novice chasers, a clear reason for caution. In fairness, the Arkle has worked well for odds-on shots, five of them winning in the past ten years. The Golden Miller was more of a trap, with three odds-on losers in the past four years; maybe that's why they scrapped it!
The Champion Chase has proved a remarkably dangerous race in which to back a shortie. Six times in the past nine years, an odds-on favourite has failed in that race. Good luck, Jonbon backers!
Anyway, here's the list of the 14 most recent calamities . . .
Benie Des Dieux 4-6
What Went Wrong In A Word: Honeysuckle
Benie Des Dieux had also been an odds-on loser in the same race the year before, doing her Annie Power impression by falling at the last when clear. But she'd hacked up in her three races since, so the market decided to forgive her. She ran well - but not quite well enough because her main rival was the up-and-coming Honeysuckle, winning at the festival for the first of four times.
Carefully Selected 10-11
WWWIAW: Stamina . . .
. . . or jumping, since he made a couple of mistakes in this novice chase, including one which left him with plenty of ground to make up. He did make a forward move but couldn't sustain it. With the benefit of hindsight, he didn't want to go much beyond three miles.
Defi Du Seuil 2-5
WWWIAW: Decline
The word "inexplicable" comes up a lot in discussion of the end of Defi's career. He was a top-class animal who won seven Grade 1s but one day, at the age of only seven, he just lost it. He won the Tingle Creek and the Clarence House Chase during the winter leading to this disaster, went to Cheltenham as hot favourite and never travelled. He was obviously beaten before the home turn, finished fourth of five and was never placed again. As far as I know, no explanation was ever found and he was retired two years later. Horses are tricky.
Tiger Roll 8-11
Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase, 2020
WWWIAW: Easysland
Tiger Roll's season had been mucked about by injury and the ground this time was softer than ideal, but the market still loved him; heck, he was a dual Grand National winner, seeking his third win in the Cross-country. He ran well, possibly as well as when he'd first won the race, but he bumped into an on-song rival. Easysland was never the same again but he was mustard that season. When they came back a year later, Tiger Roll hacked up.
Paisley Park 4-6
WWWIAW: Fibrillation
How could you see this coming? Paisley Park was on an unbeaten run of seven that included the previous year's running of this race, plus two other wins over course and distance. But he could finish only seventh this time and a fibrillating heart was diagnosed. Decline set in eventually but the eight-year-old could have won this race, granted normal health.
Concertista 10-11
WWWIAW: Outbattled
Concertista had cuffed Black Tears by 12 lengths at Christmas. But Black Tears had raised her game for Cheltenham in the previous two years and did so again, battling past Concertista on the run-in to score by a head. If the favourite had met the last on a better stride, she may have held on.
Chacun Pour Soi 8-13
WWWIAW: Hill
This was Chacun's only defeat that season. He won his other four races by more than five lengths and he seemed on his way to winning this, too, as he led over the last. But it all went wrong in the final ten seconds as he ran out of puff and two rivals went by him. He was a strong traveller who hadn't kept enough in reserve. To get home at Cheltenham, you need to settle.
Kilcruit 10-11
WWWIAW: Rachael
Kilcruit got a huge reputation from winning by 12 lengths at the Dublin Racing Festival but Sir Gerhard had done nothing wrong in winning two bumpers by daylight. He got the run of the race from the front under Rachael Blackmore, who was on fire that week, winning six times. She pinched a decisive advantage coming down the hill and, though Kilcruit made up a lot of ground up the hill, he had too much to do.
Envoi Allen 4-9
Golden Miller Novices' Chase, 2021
WWWIAW: Jumping
From this distance in time, it's easy to forget what a huge reputation Envoi Allen had after winning his first 11 races (and a point-to-point). He was already a dual festival hero. But sometimes novice chasers make mistakes; he went for a big leap at the fourth and it went wrong.
Shishkin 5-6
WWWIAW: Shishkin
Here it is, Nicky Henderson's only odds-on loser at the festival in the past ten years. Shishkin had won ten in a row, including the Supreme and the Arkle. Most recently, he'd rallied to beat Energumene in a thriller at Ascot. But he never went a yard, was being pushed along after the first fence and dropped right out in the back straight. A bone condition was blamed but, given what we saw from the horse in subsequent years, I'd say motivation was at least a factor. By the following festival, he was being stepped up in trip.
Galopin Des Champs 5-6
Golden Miller Novices' Chase, 2022
WWWIAW: Jumping
He's on his way to being remembered as an all-time great but there was one festival that proved expensive for Galopin's fans. All he had to do was clear the last and he'd have beaten Bob Olinger handily. But sometimes novice chasers make mistakes; he was asked for a big leap at the last and it went wrong.
Mighty Potter 4-6
Golden Miller Novices' Chase, 2023
WWWIAW: Distance?
Ach, poor Mighty Potter, a magnificent animal who suffered a fatal injury just weeks after this race. He'd been winning Grade 1s at about this distance and again travelled well but looked short of pace when asked to close on Stage Star from the home turn, belting the second-last as he struggled to cope. Then he hung badly right on the run-in while staying on. Perhaps three miles would have suited him better.
El Fabiolo 2-9
WWWIAW: Jumping
Here's the end of another winning streak. El Fabiolo had seven 1s next to his name, was unbeaten over fences and had hacked up in the Dublin Chase. His jumping lacked fluency but he'd always been able to rise above that shortcoming, including when beating Jonbon in the previous year's Arkle. This was the day when he sank himself. He fiddled the first, got the third wrong and finally made such a horlicks of the fifth that he was pulled up soon after. He hasn't won since and will miss this festival.
Brighterdaysahead 5-6
WWWIAW: Pace
This remains Brighterdaysahead's only defeat in ten races under rules and seems all the odder, now that she's a top-class two-miler with Champion Hurdle aspirations. But her only race in the previous four months had been over half a mile further on heavy going. After a steady early pace, she couldn't match the speed of Golden Ace (getting 5lb) in what became a sprint up the hill. Even when you've correctly identified the main character, you can still be foiled by the way the story pans out.
Conclusion
What an amazing range of things can go wrong, even when you've backed the most obvious contender. This is why I generally hate the idea of betting at odds-on. You need some margin of error to allow for the sandbag with which Fate is about to clobber you.
If you must bet odds-on runners at the festival, I'd advise steering clear of novices, especially novice chasers. And if your fancy has been making mistakes, that has to be a red flag. When you find yourself thinking: 'I hope he gets away with it again,' slam on the brakes.
Read these next:
It's on! Brighterdaysahead to take on Constitution Hill in Champion Hurdle epic
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