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Focus on stayers - betting editor Keith Melrose's advice for picking your Ten

Frodon: high-class, tough and versatile, he is very much one to consider for your list
Frodon: high-class, tough and versatile, he is very much one to consider for your listCredit: Grossick Racing

–Enter the Tote Ten To Follow here

One of the stated aims of the relaunched Tote Ten To Follow is to keep the rules as close as possible to the previous incarnation. That is good news for those with long enough memories, who can recall their old strategies. Simply pick a group of ten that gives you the best chance of hoovering up as many bonus races as possible. Easy, this. Just like riding a bike.

But that is not the full story. The bonus races have changed and that necessitates subtle but significant changes to the best-looking strategy.

A third of the 15 bonus races – Ladbrokes Trophy, Welsh National, Grand National, Scottish National and bet365 Gold Cup – are staying handicap chases. Whoever wins this season's Ten To Follow will almost certainly have included the winner of at least one of those races.

Takingrisks (Sean Quinlan) lands over the last on his way to a 25-1 success in the Scottish Grand National at Ayr on Saturday
The Scottish National could be a vital race. Cloth Cap (green cap) was third last yearCredit: John Grossick (Racingpost.com/photos)

The sport has evolved, too, since the Ten To Follow last held our attention through the season. The Scottish National and bet365 in particular often go to novices these days, while the RSA Chase is also included among the bonus races. A high-class staying novice chaser has to be a strong consideration.

One who could figure across any of those races is Wholestone. He was borderline Grade 1 class over hurdles and has taken well to fences. Being trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies, he could well have a big handicap on his agenda if the RSA looks like being a stretch.

Picking too many horses who fall in the gap between handicaps and Grade 1s, as Wholestone might, is a common pitfall. You need not shy away from taking out-and-out handicappers, so long as the target is right.

Two to consider would be Mister Malarky and Cloth Cap. The first named is being aimed at the Ladbrokes Trophy and Chepstow is also said to be under consideration. All being well Cloth Cap, third in last season's Scottish National, will be a player in one of the three big spring marathons. If the Grand National is the aim, and given he is owned by Trevor Hemmings that may well be the case, he will need to pick up some points on the way as his current rating (136) would not be high enough.

The very best staying chasers should also be considered as the King George and Gold Cup also carry bonus points. It presents a difficulty if you are convinced the Gold Cup winner will be housed in Ireland, but don't be too downhearted as they have plenty of their own Grade 1 opportunities. I can see Delta Work getting a lot of joy in these races and becoming one of Ireland's main Gold Cup hopes.

It is likely we will know more on the King George-Gold Cup question after this weekend. Hopefully Lostintranslation will enhance his claims in the Betfair Chase. He jumps superbly and has evident speed from his novice campaign spent mostly around 2m4f. He really should suit the King George. The greater stamina test in the Gold Cup presents a question, but he has always looked a 3m chaser in the making and such horses will stay at Cheltenham more often than not.

The Champion Chase and Ryanair Chase offer bonus points and it seems certain Defi Du Seuil will be a player in one of them. He has stood up to hard campaigning before and has a change of gear that will bring him plenty of joy in small-field Graded races.

The only bonus race in Ireland is the Irish Champion Hurdle, which can obviously be tied in with the Champion Hurdle and potentially with the Aintree Hurdle. Remember also that Irish 2m hurdlers have unmatched access to valuable Grade 1s through the season. Given the nature of these races, Saldier looks a more appealing option than the free-going Klassical Dream.

Expect to see Saldier (right) and Klassical Dream (centre) clash in plenty of Grade 1s
Expect to see Saldier (right) and Klassical Dream (centre) clash in plenty of Grade 1sCredit: Alain Barr

While the staying hurdlers have just one bonus race to aim at, the best of that division tends to dominate and the clear standard-setter is Paisley Park. Last year he won the Long Walk, Cleeve and Stayers' Hurdle and his campaign is set to be similar this year, albeit including a trip to Punchestown, which falls outside the game period.

Once bonus races have been fully considered, there is always room for a couple of wildcards, which can make the difference in a tight race. Frodon is an obvious type to consider as he will dance every dance and get at least his fair share of glory.

Also consider including a smart mare, as their programme is plentiful and offers opportunities for points to be hoovered up. Posh Trish did this as a novice hurdler last year and, if she can stretch out to around 2m4f this winter, could have similar joy over fences.


Keith Melrose's Ten To Follow

Cloth Cap
Defi Du Seuil
Delta Work
Frodon
Lostintranslation
Mister Malarky
Paisley Park
Posh Trish
Saldier
Wholestone


To find out more details on the Tote Ten To Follow click here


Members can read the latest exclusive tipping content such as Pricewise and Paul Kealy from 6pm daily on racingpost.com


Published on 19 November 2019inFeatures

Last updated 17:28, 21 November 2019

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