Take potential over proven form at Newmarket on Thursday - plus two Arc tips
1.50 Newmarket, Thursday
1pt win at 13-2 with William Hill
2.25 Newmarket, Thursday
1pt each-way at 14-1 with bet365 and Paddy Power
Part of what makes Newmarket's July meeting so good is the fact you get tosee the Classicgeneration take on their elders, as well as seeing how the Royal Ascot juveniles fare against their more late-maturing counterparts.
My eye has been particularly drawn to these unexposed types and I think it could pay to take a chance on potential in a few races this week.
First up, Thursday's Bahrain Trophy(1.50) involves a couple from the Queen's Vase in Dancing King and the third-placed Stowell, with the latter heading the market.
He deserves his place and is surely due to do better, but I don't think these are an exceptional bunch of colts. With that in mind, my selection is the unbeaten Shadwell colt Mandoob, with retained rider Jim Crowley already booked to ride.
According to his trainer Brian Meehan, this race has been the plan since he made a winning debut at Lingfield in April and it isn't difficult to see why.
The son of Farhh defied odds of 11-1 to win on debut, beating the highly touted Marshall Plan, who wasn't disgraced on his next start inthe fiercely competitive King George V Handicap –Tashkhan, who won a decent handicap on Saturday, was among those in behind.
Mandoob then went to Haydock where despite being one of the first horses to come under pressure at the four-furlong mark, he eventuallypegged back Princess Nadia and Mellow Magic to win comfortably by three-quarters of a length.
It is difficult to know for sure as sectionals from the race aren't freely available, but my instinct was Mandoob did very well to win given the way the race was run, with a furtherseven lengths back to the fourth.
He received a Racing Post Rating of 93 for what appeared to be a smart final burst of acceleration, and ultimately an even gallop at this 1m5½f trip should see him in an even better light.
This is undoubtedly a bigask, but he is highly likely to stay the distance on pedigree and his sire Farhh won a Champion Stakes on soft ground, so the rainy forecast shouldn't bother him either.
Another to support on the opening day isAsymmetric in the Tattersalls July Stakes (2.25).
He missed Royal Ascot for this, which may have beena smart move as he gainedvaluable track experiencewhen an easy winner over thiscourse and distance instead.
Quorto took the same race enroute to July Stakes success in
2018.On his debut Asymmetric came from behind to get the
better of subsequent Sandownwinner Mojomaker, with that
horse repeatedly leaning onhim in the final furlong (the
seventh has also won since).
That form is arguably moreimpressive than what he achieved last time as the 1-2favourite, but his most recentwin can definitely be upgradedas they didn't go very quickearly on.
He comes from a speedyfamily but there is also staminafurther back on his page, andthis race could set up perfectlyfor him.
Dig Two and Lusailare all potential pace anglesand, like Mandoob, any rainshouldn't be a problem forAsymmetric given he is by
Showcasing out of a Hellvelynmare. He can be backed at14-1, a price I would argue isdouble the figure it shouldbe.
Wonderful Tonight can be the toast of Paris
3.00 Longchamp, October 3
1pt win at 10-1, BoyleSports
3.00 Longchamp, October 3
1pt win at 33-1, generally
It seemsmad considering we're only in July, but I alreadythink I have a relativelygood idea of the Prixde l'Arc de Triomphe winner.
I haven't been as impressed by a horse all season as I was withWonderful Tonight in the Hardwicke. She was reportedly only 85 per cent fit and looked a little gassy in the opening stages, but the turn of foot she showed to settle the race towards the top of the straight wasbreathtaking.
Broome gave that form somesubstance on Sunday when winning the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud under a masterful Colin Keane ride, and I don't think David Menuisier's filly has been given the respect she deserves.
Admittedly, her best form has come on soft or heavy ground but five out of the last ten Arcs have been run on those conditions and she's now a miles better filly than when she last raced on a sound surface anyway.
Incredibly, I don't think we saw her at anything near her best at Royal Ascot, yet she still produced a career-best RacingPost Rating of 120, just 2lb behind what Pyledriver achieved in the Coronation Cup. A Group 1 winner over 1m6f with an electric turn of foot, she is also tactically versatile.
The point is often made about the record of three-year old fillies in the Arc, but four year-olds don't do too badly either as they have won four of the last ten runnings. It doesn't take much imagination to see Wonderful Tonight emulating Solemia (2012), Treve (2014), Found (2016) and Enable (2018).
Especially considering theform of Snowfall's Oaks win currently looks veryquestionable, while we still don't know if Love would be as effective on autumn ground. St Mark's Basilica looks a ten-furlong horse through and through while we haven't yet seen Tarnawa this campaign. All of these things point towards Wonderful Tonight still being a few points too big at 10-1.
However, if you're after one whose price could really crash, it might be wise to invest inAlenquer at 33-1.
That price seems bonkers considering he has alreadybeaten the Derby winner Adayar on good ground – he is only 10-1 – and he is also suited by testing conditions, as he proved when bounding away with the King Edward VII Stakes, form that could be boosted on Thursday. Like last year's second In Swoop, he is by the decorated and much missed German sire Adlerflug.
A positive performance in the King George would see his price tumble and rider Tom Marquand is convinced Alenquer hasn't reached his peak yet, so expect even better from him as the season goes on.
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